IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/oropre/v68y2020i1p199-213.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Failing to Foresee the Updating of the Reference Point Leads to Time-Inconsistent Investment

Author

Listed:
  • Moris S. Strub

    (Business School, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, 518055 Guangdong, China)

  • Duan Li

    (School of Data Science, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon Tong, Kowloon, Hong Kong)

Abstract

The current literature on behavioral portfolio optimization with reference point updating assumes that the decision maker foresees how the reference point will evolve and thus solves a time-consistent problem formulation. Empirical findings, however, suggest that decision makers often fail to foresee the updating of the reference point and consequently make time-inconsistent decisions. We analyze and compare the optimal investment strategies for a discrete time behavioral portfolio optimization problem with loss-aversion and time-varying reference points under both the time-consistent and time-inconsistent framework and for different updating rules for the reference point. There is only one framework predicting realistic investment behavior: the decision maker fails to foresee the updating of the reference point and thus faces a time-inconsistent problem, solves for a dynamically optimal strategy, and updates the reference point in a nonrecursive manner.

Suggested Citation

  • Moris S. Strub & Duan Li, 2020. "Failing to Foresee the Updating of the Reference Point Leads to Time-Inconsistent Investment," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 199-213, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:68:y:2020:i:1:p:199-213
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.2019.1872
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2019.1872
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/opre.2019.1872?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue & Matthew Rabin, 2003. "Projection Bias in Predicting Future Utility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1209-1248.
    2. Nicholas Barberis & Wei Xiong, 2009. "What Drives the Disposition Effect? An Analysis of a Long‐Standing Preference‐Based Explanation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 751-784, April.
    3. Dan Acland & Matthew R. Levy, 2015. "Naiveté, Projection Bias, and Habit Formation in Gym Attendance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(1), pages 146-160, January.
    4. Kliger, Doron & Levy, Ori, 2008. "Projection bias by investors: A market approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 66(3-4), pages 657-668, June.
    5. Hoch, Stephen J & Loewenstein, George F, 1991. "Time-Inconsistent Preferences and Consumer Self-Control," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 17(4), pages 492-507, March.
    6. Arjan B. Berkelaar & Roy Kouwenberg & Thierry Post, 2004. "Optimal Portfolio Choice under Loss Aversion," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 973-987, November.
    7. Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 1995. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 73-92.
    8. Acland, Dan & Levy, Matthew R., 2015. "Naiveté, projection bias, and habit formation in gym attendance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66147, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Yannis Bilias & Dimitris Georgarakos & Michael Haliassos, 2010. "Portfolio Inertia and Stock Market Fluctuations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 715-742, June.
    10. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Alex Imas, 2016. "The Realization Effect: Risk-Taking after Realized versus Paper Losses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(8), pages 2086-2109, August.
    12. Duan Li & Wan‐Lung Ng, 2000. "Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Selection: Multiperiod Mean‐Variance Formulation," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 387-406, July.
    13. Xuedong He & Linan Yang, 2019. "Realization utility with adaptive reference points," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 409-447, April.
    14. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    15. Peter J. Hammond, 1976. "Changing Tastes and Coherent Dynamic Choice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 43(1), pages 159-173.
    16. Manel Baucells & Martin Weber & Frank Welfens, 2011. "Reference-Point Formation and Updating," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(3), pages 506-519, March.
    17. Arkes, Hal R. & Hirshleifer, David & Jiang, Danling & Lim, Sonya, 2008. "Reference point adaptation: Tests in the domain of security trading," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 67-81, January.
    18. Manel Baucells & Rakesh K. Sarin, 2008. "Does More Money Buy You More Happiness?," Springer Optimization and Its Applications, in: Tamar Kugler & J. Cole Smith & Terry Connolly & Young-Jun Son (ed.), Decision Modeling and Behavior in Complex and Uncertain Environments, pages 199-226, Springer.
    19. Manel Baucells & Rakesh K. Sarin, 2010. "Predicting Utility Under Satiation and Habit Formation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(2), pages 286-301, February.
    20. Juanjuan Meng & Xi Weng, 2018. "Can Prospect Theory Explain the Disposition Effect? A New Perspective on Reference Points," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(7), pages 3331-3351, July.
    21. Jonathan E. Ingersoll & Lawrence J. Jin, 2013. "Realization Utility with Reference-Dependent Preferences," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(3), pages 723-767.
    22. Uri Gneezy, 2005. "Updating the Reference Level: Experimental Evidence," Springer Books, in: Rami Zwick & Amnon Rapoport (ed.), Experimental Business Research, chapter 0, pages 263-284, Springer.
    23. Richard H. Thaler & Eric J. Johnson, 1990. "Gambling with the House Money and Trying to Break Even: The Effects of Prior Outcomes on Risky Choice," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(6), pages 643-660, June.
    24. Manel Baucells & Rakesh K. Sarin, 2013. "Determinants of Experienced Utility: Laws and Implications," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(2), pages 135-151, June.
    25. Xue Dong He & Xun Yu Zhou, 2014. "Myopic loss aversion, reference point, and money illusion," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(9), pages 1541-1554, September.
    26. Hanqing Jin & Xun Yu Zhou, 2008. "Behavioral Portfolio Selection In Continuous Time," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 385-426, July.
    27. Easterlin, Richard A., 1974. "Does Economic Growth Improve the Human Lot? Some Empirical Evidence," MPRA Paper 111773, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Arkes, Hal R. & Hirshleifer, David & Jiang, Danling & Lim, Sonya S., 2010. "A cross-cultural study of reference point adaptation: Evidence from China, Korea, and the US," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 99-111, July.
    29. Haipeng (Allan) Chen & Akshay R. Rao, 2002. "Close Encounters of Two Kinds: False Alarms and Dashed Hopes," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(2), pages 178-196, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rawley Heimer & Zwetelina Iliewa & Alex Imas & Martin Weber, 2021. "Dynamic Inconsistency in Risky Choice: Evidence From the Lab and Field," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2021_274, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    2. Jia Yue & Ming-Hui Wang & Nan-Jing Huang, 2022. "Global Optimal Consumption–Portfolio Rules with Myopic Preferences and Loss Aversion," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(4), pages 1427-1455, December.
    3. Lou, Youcheng & Strub, Moris S. & Li, Duan & Wang, Shouyang, 2021. "The impact of a reference point determined by social comparison on wealth growth and inequality," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Balter, Anne G. & Mahayni, Antje & Schweizer, Nikolaus, 2021. "Time-consistency of optimal investment under smooth ambiguity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 293(2), pages 643-657.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jakusch, Sven Thorsten & Meyer, Steffen & Hackethal, Andreas, 2019. "Taming models of prospect theory in the wild? Estimation of Vlcek and Hens (2011)," SAFE Working Paper Series 146, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2019.
    2. Yun Shi & Xiangyu Cui & Jing Yao & Duan Li, 2015. "Dynamic Trading with Reference Point Adaptation and Loss Aversion," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(4), pages 789-806, August.
    3. Lou, Youcheng & Strub, Moris S. & Li, Duan & Wang, Shouyang, 2021. "The impact of a reference point determined by social comparison on wealth growth and inequality," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Manel Baucells & Martin Weber & Frank Welfens, 2011. "Reference-Point Formation and Updating," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(3), pages 506-519, March.
    5. Fortin, Ines & Hlouskova, Jaroslava, 2024. "Prospect theory and asset allocation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 214-240.
    6. Arkes, Hal R. & Hirshleifer, David & Jiang, Danling & Lim, Sonya S., 2010. "A cross-cultural study of reference point adaptation: Evidence from China, Korea, and the US," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 99-111, July.
    7. Vicky Henderson & Jonathan Muscat, 2020. "Partial liquidation under reference-dependent preferences," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 335-357, April.
    8. Hong Chao & Chun-Yu Ho & Xiangdong Qin, 2017. "Risk taking after absolute and relative wealth changes: The role of reference point adaptation," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 157-186, April.
    9. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    10. Servaas van Bilsen & Roger J. A. Laeven & Theo E. Nijman, 2020. "Consumption and Portfolio Choice Under Loss Aversion and Endogenous Updating of the Reference Level," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(9), pages 3927-3955, September.
    11. Enrico Giorgi & Thorsten Hens, 2006. "Making prospect theory fit for finance," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 20(3), pages 339-360, September.
    12. Li An & Huijun Wang & Jian Wang & Jianfeng Yu, 2020. "Lottery-Related Anomalies: The Role of Reference-Dependent Preferences," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 473-501, January.
    13. Rosenblatt-Wisch, Rina, 2008. "Loss aversion in aggregate macroeconomic time series," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1140-1159, October.
    14. Alex Markle & George Wu & Rebecca White & Aaron Sackett, 2018. "Goals as reference points in marathon running: A novel test of reference dependence," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 19-50, February.
    15. Li, Jianbiao & Niu, Xiaofei & Li, Dahui & Cao, Qian, 2018. "Using Non-Invasive Brain Stimulation to Test the Role of Self-Control in Investor Behavior," EconStor Preprints 177890, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    16. Flepp, Raphael & Meier, Philippe & Franck, Egon, 2021. "The effect of paper outcomes versus realized outcomes on subsequent risk-taking: Field evidence from casino gambling," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 45-55.
    17. Baucells, Manel & Weber, Martin & Welfens, Frank, 2007. "Reference Point Formation Over Time: A Weighting Function Approach," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-43, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    18. Juanjuan Meng & Xi Weng, 2018. "Can Prospect Theory Explain the Disposition Effect? A New Perspective on Reference Points," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(7), pages 3331-3351, July.
    19. Henderson, Vicky & Hobson, David & Tse, Alex S.L., 2018. "Probability weighting, stop-loss and the disposition effect," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 360-397.
    20. Vicky Henderson, 2012. "Prospect Theory, Liquidation, and the Disposition Effect," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(2), pages 445-460, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:68:y:2020:i:1:p:199-213. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.