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Smoking Today and Stopping Tomorrow: a Limited Foresight Perspective

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  • Philippe Jehiel
  • Andrew Lilico

Abstract

This article considers an intertemporal decision problem in which the agent has limited foresight. It offers an interpretation of why people may smoke when they are young--as a result of having a short horizon of foresight--and refrain from smoking when they get older--as a result of having better foresight. (JEL codes: D03, D83, D91, I10) Copyright The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Munich. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Jehiel & Andrew Lilico, 2010. "Smoking Today and Stopping Tomorrow: a Limited Foresight Perspective," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 56(2), pages 141-164, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cesifo:v:56:y:2010:i:2:p:141-164
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philippe Jehiel, 2001. "Limited Foresight May Force Cooperation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(2), pages 369-391.
    2. George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue & Matthew Rabin, 2003. "Projection Bias in Predicting Future Utility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1209-1248.
    3. Ted O'Donoghue & Matthew Rabin, 2001. "Choice and Procrastination," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 121-160.
    4. Harris, Christopher & Laibson, David, 2001. "Dynamic Choices of Hyperbolic Consumers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 935-957, July.
    5. Jonathan Gruber & Botond Köszegi, 2001. "Is Addiction "Rational"? Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(4), pages 1261-1303.
    6. Becker, Gary S & Grossman, Michael & Murphy, Kevin M, 1994. "An Empirical Analysis of Cigarette Addiction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 396-418, June.
    7. Jehiel, Philippe, 1998. "Learning to Play Limited Forecast Equilibria," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 274-298, February.
    8. Faruk Gul & Wolfgang Pesendorfer, 2007. "Harmful Addiction," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(1), pages 147-172.
    9. Becker, Gary S & Murphy, Kevin M, 1988. "A Theory of Rational Addiction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 675-700, August.
    10. David Laibson, 1997. "Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(2), pages 443-478.
    11. Jeheil Phillippe, 1995. "Limited Horizon Forecast in Repeated Alternate Games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 497-519, December.
    12. Stigler, George J & Becker, Gary S, 1977. "De Gustibus Non Est Disputandum," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 76-90, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abel Brodeur, 2012. "Smoking, Income and Subjective Well-Being: Evidence from Smoking Bans," Working Papers halshs-00664269, HAL.
    2. Fynn Kemper & Philipp Christoph Wichardt, 2021. "Procedurally Justifiable Strategies: Integrating Context Effects into Multistage Decision Making," CESifo Working Paper Series 9459, CESifo.
    3. Newall, Philip W.S. & Peacey, Mike W., 2021. "Pension behavior and policy," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    4. Sloan, Frank A. & Eldred, Lindsey M. & Xu, Yanzhi, 2014. "The behavioral economics of drunk driving," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 64-81.
    5. Méder, Zsombor Z. & Flesch, János & Peeters, Ronald, 2017. "Naiveté and sophistication in dynamic inconsistency," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 40-54.
    6. Alisa Frik & Luigi Mittone, 2016. "Factors Influencing the Perceived Websites' Privacy Trustworthiness and Users' Purchase Intentions," CEEL Working Papers 1609, Cognitive and Experimental Economics Laboratory, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    7. Andrew Leicester & Peter Levell, 2016. "Anti‐Smoking Policies and Smoker Well‐Being: Evidence from Britain," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 37, pages 224-257, June.
    8. Kemper, Fynn & Wichardt, Philipp C., 2021. "Procedurally justifiable strategies: Integrating context effects into multistage decision making," Kiel Working Papers 2202, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Miaoqing Yang & Eugenio Zucchelli, 2018. "The impact of public smoking bans on well‐being externalities: Evidence from a policy experiment," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(3), pages 224-247, July.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General

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