IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jeborg/v76y2010i2p267-282.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investor mood and financial markets

Author

Listed:
  • Shu, Hui-Chu

Abstract

Numerous studies in recent decades have linked investor mood and financial market behavior, but most works have been empirical investigations. This paper bridges the gap between empirical findings and financial theory. By slightly modifying the Lucas (Lucas, R.E., 1978. Asset prices in an exchange economy. Econometrica 46, 1429-1445.) model, this study shows how investor mood variations affect equilibrium asset prices and expected returns. Analysis results indicate that both equity and bill prices correlate positively with investor mood, with higher asset prices associated with better mood. Conversely, expected asset returns correlate negatively with investor mood. Further, the mood effect on asset prices increases when investors are in a good mood, and mood variations exhibit a greater influence on equity markets than on bill markets. Results of this study suggest that investor mood is a vital factor in equilibrium asset prices and returns, and integrating investor mood into asset-pricing models helps to interpret the growing body of seemingly anomalous evidence regarding investor behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Shu, Hui-Chu, 2010. "Investor mood and financial markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 267-282, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:76:y:2010:i:2:p:267-282
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167-2681(10)00105-8
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cao, Melanie & Wei, Jason, 2005. "Stock market returns: A note on temperature anomaly," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1559-1573, June.
    2. Lisa A. Kramer & Mark J. Kamstra & Maurice D. Levi, 2000. "Losing Sleep at the Market: The Daylight Saving Anomaly," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1005-1011, September.
    3. David Hirshleifer & Tyler Shumway, 2003. "Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1009-1032, June.
    4. Gary S. Becker & Casey B. Mulligan, 1997. "The Endogenous Determination of Time Preference," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(3), pages 729-758.
    5. Lee, Charles M C & Shleifer, Andrei & Thaler, Richard H, 1991. "Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 75-109, March.
    6. Estrada, Carlos A. & Isen, Alice M. & Young, Mark J., 1997. "Positive Affect Facilitates Integration of Information and Decreases Anchoring in Reasoning among Physicians," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 117-135, October.
    7. George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue & Matthew Rabin, 2003. "Projection Bias in Predicting Future Utility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1209-1248.
    8. Falato, Antonio, 2009. "Happiness maintenance and asset prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1247-1262, June.
    9. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    10. Mark J. Kamstra & Lisa A. Kramer & Maurice D. Levi, 2003. "Winter Blues: A SAD Stock Market Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 324-343, March.
    11. Yuan, Kathy & Zheng, Lu & Zhu, Qiaoqiao, 2006. "Are investors moonstruck? Lunar phases and stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-23, January.
    12. Chang, Tsangyao & Nieh, Chien-Chung & Yang, Ming Jing & Yang, Tse-Yu, 2006. "Are stock market returns related to the weather effects? Empirical evidence from Taiwan," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 364(C), pages 343-354.
    13. John Conlisk, 1996. "Why Bounded Rationality?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 669-700, June.
    14. Brian M. Lucey & Michael Dowling, 2005. "The Role of Feelings in Investor Decision‐Making," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 211-237, April.
    15. George Loewenstein & Drazen Prelec, 1992. "Anomalies in Intertemporal Choice: Evidence and an Interpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 573-597.
    16. George Loewenstein, 2000. "Emotions in Economic Theory and Economic Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 426-432, May.
    17. Nygren, Thomas E. & Isen, Alice M. & Taylor, Pamela J. & Dulin, Jessica, 1996. "The Influence of Positive Affect on the Decision Rule in Risk Situations: Focus on Outcome (and Especially Avoidance of Loss) Rather Than Probability," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 59-72, April.
    18. Wright, William F. & Bower, Gordon H., 1992. "Mood effects on subjective probability assessment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 276-291, July.
    19. Isen, Alice M. & Geva, Nehemia, 1987. "The influence of positive affect on acceptable level of risk: The person with a large canoe has a large worry," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 145-154, April.
    20. Dowling, Michael & Lucey, Brian M., 2005. "Weather, biorhythms, beliefs and stock returns--Some preliminary Irish evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 337-355.
    21. Ariel, Robert A, 1990. "High Stock Returns before Holidays: Existence and Evidence on Possible Causes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1611-1626, December.
    22. Loewenstein, George, 1996. "Out of Control: Visceral Influences on Behavior," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 272-292, March.
    23. Saunders, Edward M, Jr, 1993. "Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1337-1345, December.
    24. Hanoch, Yaniv, 2002. ""Neither an angel nor an ant": Emotion as an aid to bounded rationality," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-25, February.
    25. Etzioni, Amitai, 1988. "Normative-affective factors: Toward a new decision-making model," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 125-150, June.
    26. Hui-Chu Shu & Mao-Wei Hung, 2009. "Effect of wind on stock market returns: evidence from European markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(11), pages 893-904.
    27. Stephen Keef & Melvin Roush, 2007. "Daily weather effects on the returns of Australian stock indices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 173-184.
    28. Richard H. Thaler & Eric J. Johnson, 1990. "Gambling with the House Money and Trying to Break Even: The Effects of Prior Outcomes on Risky Choice," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(6), pages 643-660, June.
    29. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    30. Rajnish Mehra, 2003. "The Equity Premium: Why is it a Puzzle?," NBER Working Papers 9512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    32. Chopra, Navin, et al, 1993. "Yes, Discounts on Closed-End Funds Are a Sentiment Index," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 801-808, June.
    33. Au, Kevin & Chan, Forrest & Wang, Denis & Vertinsky, Ilan, 2003. "Mood in foreign exchange trading: Cognitive processes and performance," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 322-338, July.
    34. Paul A. Samuelson, 1937. "A Note on Measurement of Utility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 4(2), pages 155-161.
    35. Kaufman, Bruce E., 1999. "Emotional arousal as a source of bounded rationality," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 135-144, February.
    36. Anya Krivelyova & Cesare Robotti, 2003. "Playing the field: Geomagnetic storms and international stock markets," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    37. Chopra, Navin, et al,, 1993. "Yes, Discounts on Closed-End Funds Are a Sentiment Index: Summing Up," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 811-812, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brian M. Lucey & Michael Dowling, 2005. "The Role of Feelings in Investor Decision‐Making," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 211-237, April.
    2. Dimitrios Kourtidis & Željko Šević & Prodromos Chatzoglou, 2016. "Mood and stock returns: evidence from Greece," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(2), pages 242-258, May.
    3. Frühwirth, Manfred & Sögner, Leopold, 2015. "Weather and SAD related mood effects on the financial market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 11-31.
    4. Filiz, Ibrahim & Nahmer, Thomas & Spiwoks, Markus, 2019. "Herd behavior and mood: An experimental study on the forecasting of share prices," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    5. Lepori, Gabriele M., 2015. "Positive mood and investment decisions: Evidence from comedy movie attendance in the U.S," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 142-163.
    6. Kim, Jae H., 2017. "Stock returns and investors' mood: Good day sunshine or spurious correlation?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 94-103.
    7. Andrew Worthington, 2009. "An Empirical Note on Weather Effects in the Australian Stock Market," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 28(2), pages 148-154, June.
    8. Lepori, Gabriele M., 2016. "Air pollution and stock returns: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 25-42.
    9. Kim, Jae H. & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2023. "Stock market anomalies: An extreme bounds analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    10. Muhammad Fayyaz Sheikh & Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah & Shahid Mahmood, 2017. "Weather Effects on Stock Returns and Volatility in South Asian Markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 24(2), pages 75-107, June.
    11. Falato, Antonio, 2009. "Happiness maintenance and asset prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1247-1262, June.
    12. Qadan, Mahmoud & Kliger, Doron, 2016. "The short trading day anomaly," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 62-80.
    13. Brian Lucey, 2010. "Lunar seasonality in precious metal returns?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(9), pages 835-838.
    14. Dowling, Michael & Lucey, Brian M., 2005. "Weather, biorhythms, beliefs and stock returns--Some preliminary Irish evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 337-355.
    15. Lu, Jing & Chou, Robin K., 2012. "Does the weather have impacts on returns and trading activities in order-driven stock markets? Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 79-93.
    16. Silva, Pedro & Almeida, Liliana, 2011. "Weather and stock markets: empirical evidence from Portugal," MPRA Paper 54119, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Kang, Sang Hoon & Jiang, Zhuhua & Lee, Yeonjeong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2010. "Weather effects on the returns and volatility of the Shanghai stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(1), pages 91-99.
    18. Lepori, Gabriele M., 2015. "Investor mood and demand for stocks: Evidence from popular TV series finales," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 33-47.
    19. Liang, Chao & Xia, Zhenglan & Lai, Xiaodong & Wang, Lu, 2022. "Natural gas volatility prediction: Fresh evidence from extreme weather and extended GARCH-MIDAS-ES model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    20. Nils Muhlack & Christian Soost & Christian Johannes Henrich, 2022. "Does Weather Still Affect The Stock Market?," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 74(1), pages 1-35, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:76:y:2010:i:2:p:267-282. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.