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A reflection on the mass production of scenarios in response to COVID‐19

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  • George Cairns
  • George Wright

Abstract

In this short paper, we reflect on the recent accumulation of scenarios that have been developed in response to the COVID‐19 pandemic. Will they be of use to worried individuals and organizations? Or, are they artifacts of the very recent past? We conclude that these quickly‐produced scenarios are not embedded in the realities of affected communities and that the scenario development process should be enhanced to either involve power‐holding stakeholders or, more straightforwardly, to activate local consideration of how the affected community might/might not wish to react to localized dilemmas. Both enhancements will provide action‐orientated insights, beyond that of simply appreciating possible global/regional futures.

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  • George Cairns & George Wright, 2020. "A reflection on the mass production of scenarios in response to COVID‐19," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3-4), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:2:y:2020:i:3-4:n:e34
    DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.34
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lehoux, P. & Miller, F.A. & Williams-Jones, B., 2020. "Anticipatory governance and moral imagination: Methodological insights from a scenario-based public deliberation study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Cairns, George & Wright, George & Fairbrother, Peter, 2016. "Promoting articulated action from diverse stakeholders in response to public policy scenarios: A case analysis of the use of ‘scenario improvisation’ method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 97-108.
    3. Kupers, Roland & Wilkinson, Angela, 2014. "The Essence of Scenarios," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9789089645944.
    4. Cairns, George & Wright, George & Fairbrother, Peter & Phillips, Richard, 2017. "‘Branching scenarios’ seeking articulated action for regional regeneration – A case study of limited success," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 189-202.
    5. Oliver, John J. & Parrett, Emma, 2018. "Managing future uncertainty: Reevaluating the role of scenario planning," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 339-352.
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    Cited by:

    1. Theresa C. Schropp & Jan Oliver Schwarz & Fabian Buder, 2024. "Corporate foresight in light of the COVID‐19 pandemic—The crisis as a driver?," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(2), June.

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