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Integrating system dynamics and scenarios: A framework based on personal experience

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  • Martin Kunc

Abstract

System dynamics (SD) is a methodology to generate qualitative and quantitative models. SD has two main concepts that are highly suitable to use with scenarios: feedback processes that define the structure of sociotechnical systems and accumulation processes that are responsible for the dynamic behavior of systems over time. This article discusses a framework that integrates methodologically scenarios and SD. The integration can take multiple forms depending on the use of SD for creating or supporting scenarios. The framework is illustrated with multiple examples. Since SDs' practice uses processes similar to scenario practice, mutual enrichment between the communities can be highly successful.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Kunc, 2024. "Integrating system dynamics and scenarios: A framework based on personal experience," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(1), March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:6:y:2024:i:1:n:e174
    DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.174
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Claralucia Prates Machado & Maria Isabel Wolf Morandi & Miguel Sellitto, 2019. "System Dynamics and Learning Scenarios for Process Improvement and Regional Resilience: A Study in The Footwear Industry of Southern Brazil," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 32(6), pages 663-686, December.
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    4. Carlisle, Sheena & Johansen, Aleksander & Kunc, Martin, 2016. "Strategic foresight for (coastal) urban tourism market complexity: The case of Bournemouth," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 81-95.
    5. Arbrie Jashari & Victor Tiberius & Marina Dabić, 2022. "Tracing the progress of scenario research in business and management," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(2), June.
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    8. Maria Cleofe Giorgino & Federico Barnabè & Martin Kunc, 2020. "Integrating qualitative system dynamics with accounting practices: The case of integrated reporting and resource mapping," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 97-118, January.
    9. M Kunc & R Kazakov, 2013. "Competitive dynamics in pharmaceutical markets: A case study in the chronic cardiac disease market," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 64(12), pages 1790-1799, December.
    10. Wright, George & Cairns, George & Goodwin, Paul, 2009. "Teaching scenario planning: Lessons from practice in academe and business," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 194(1), pages 323-335, April.
    11. Mohammadreza Zolfagharian & A. Georges L. Romme & Bob Walrave, 2018. "Why, when, and how to combine system dynamics with other methods: Towards an evidence-based framework," Journal of Simulation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 98-114, April.
    12. Torres, Juan Pablo & Kunc, Martin & O'Brien, Frances, 2017. "Supporting strategy using system dynamics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 260(3), pages 1081-1094.
    13. M H Kunc & J D W Morecroft, 2009. "Resource-based strategies and problem structuring: using resource maps to manage resource systems," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(2), pages 191-199, February.
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    16. Martin Kunc & Michael J. Mortenson & Richard Vidgen, 2018. "A computational literature review of the field of System Dynamics from 1974 to 2017," Journal of Simulation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 115-127, April.
    17. Rossen Kazakov & Martin Kunc, 2016. "Foreseeing the Dynamics of Strategy: An Anticipatory Systems Perspective," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 1-25, February.
    18. Willis, Graham & Cave, Siôn & Kunc, Martin, 2018. "Strategic workforce planning in healthcare: A multi-methodology approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(1), pages 250-263.
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