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Scenario planning: Reflecting on cases of actionable knowledge

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  • John J. Oliver

Abstract

Scenario planning has a long history of academic inquiry and practice in numerous fields and industries; however, its future as a tool to manage strategic uncertainty may well have reached an impasse. While the academic community perpetuates the view that the field is characterized by methodological chaos, the practitioner community is concerned only with how scenario planning can help solve an organizational problem. This paper argues that the academic community would benefit from adopting a philosophical orientation that is “pragmatic” where theoretical and methodological sophistication should be traded‐off against the need to produce a practical outcome that addresses a specific organizational problem. This would enable more academics to generate new knowledge that was “useful” rather than “generalizable.” Adopting a Pragmatic Philosophy would also address three primary issues asserted in literature on the process, content, and implementation of scenario‐informed strategizing. This position paper provides a reflective account of how the narrative on scenario planning theory can be moved more effectively into scenario planning practice by illustrating the author's commitment to developing scenario‐based actionable knowledge, high levels of implementable validity, and instrumental impact with organizations. As such, it presents a reflection on interventions that demonstrate how scenario‐informed strategies were developed and implemented with successful organizational outcomes.

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  • John J. Oliver, 2023. "Scenario planning: Reflecting on cases of actionable knowledge," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(3-4), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:5:y:2023:i:3-4:n:e164
    DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.164
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    References listed on IDEAS

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