IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/fufsci/v6y2024i2ne176.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The place and limits of futures analysis: Strategy under uncertainty 25 years on

Author

Listed:
  • Adam Vigdor Gordon

Abstract

This paper revisits a 1997 Harvard Business Review article, “Strategy Under Uncertainty,” 25 years after publication, to selectively and critically extract its insights for the current era in futures and foresight work. It relates the original article to ongoing purpose and methodological issues in the futures field and outlines the ways its concepts remain pertinent in academic futures understanding and organizational futures practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Vigdor Gordon, 2024. "The place and limits of futures analysis: Strategy under uncertainty 25 years on," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(2), June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:6:y:2024:i:2:n:e176
    DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.176
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.176
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/ffo2.176?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mary Tripsas & Giovanni Gavetti, 2000. "Capabilities, cognition, and inertia: evidence from digital imaging," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(10‐11), pages 1147-1161, October.
    2. Heger, Tobias & Rohrbeck, René, 2012. "Strategic foresight for collaborative exploration of new business fields," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(5), pages 819-831.
    3. Giovanni Gavetti & Anoop Menon, 2016. "Evolution Cum Agency: Toward a Model of Strategic Foresight," Strategy Science, INFORMS, vol. 1(3), pages 207-233, September.
    4. Giovanni Gavetti & Joe Porac, 2018. "On the Origin of Great Strategies," Strategy Science, INFORMS, vol. 3(1), pages 352-365, March.
    5. Haarhaus, Tim & Liening, Andreas, 2020. "Building dynamic capabilities to cope with environmental uncertainty: The role of strategic foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    6. David J. Teece & Gary Pisano & Amy Shuen, 1997. "Dynamic capabilities and strategic management," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(7), pages 509-533, August.
    7. Rohrbeck, René & Kum, Menes Etingue, 2018. "Corporate foresight and its impact on firm performance: A longitudinal analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 105-116.
    8. Leiblein, Michael J. & Reuer, Jeffrey J., 2020. "Foundations and Futures of Strategic Management," Strategic Management Review, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-33, March.
    9. Thomas Fink & Pankaj Ghemawat & Martin Reeves, 2017. "Searching for Great Strategies," Strategy Science, INFORMS, vol. 2(4), pages 272-281, December.
    10. Giovanni Gavetti, 2012. "PERSPECTIVE—Toward a Behavioral Theory of Strategy," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(1), pages 267-285, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gordon, Adam Vigdor & Ramic, Mirza & Rohrbeck, René & Spaniol, Matthew J., 2020. "50 Years of corporate and organizational foresight: Looking back and going forward," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    2. Jan Oliver Schwarz & René Rohrbeck & Bernhard Wach, 2020. "Corporate foresight as a microfoundation of dynamic capabilities," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(2), June.
    3. Marinković, Milan & Al-Tabbaa, Omar & Khan, Zaheer & Wu, Jie, 2022. "Corporate foresight: A systematic literature review and future research trajectories," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 289-311.
    4. Taferner, Stefan Gerhard, 2023. "Strategic Foresight Capability and its Impact on Firm Performance: A systematic, AI-based Literature Review," Junior Management Science (JUMS), Junior Management Science e. V., vol. 8(3), pages 658-681.
    5. Lehr, Thomas & Lorenz, Ullrich & Willert, Markus & Rohrbeck, René, 2017. "Scenario-based strategizing: Advancing the applicability in strategists' teams," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 214-224.
    6. Lisa-Marie Semke & Victor Tiberius, 2020. "Corporate Foresight and Dynamic Capabilities: An Exploratory Study," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-14, June.
    7. Elizabeth G. Pontikes & Violina P. Rindova, 2020. "Shaping Markets Through Temporal, Constructive, and Interactive Agency," Strategy Science, INFORMS, vol. 5(3), pages 149-159, September.
    8. David G. Sirmon & Michael A. Hitt, 2003. "Managing Resources: Linking Unique Resources, Management, and Wealth Creation in Family Firms," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 27(4), pages 339-358, October.
    9. A. E. Rodríguez Salazar & M. A. Domínguez-Crespo & A. M. Torres-Huerta & A. I. Licona-Aguilar & A. Nivón-Pellón & V. N. Orta-Guzmán, 2021. "Analysis of the Dynamical Capabilities into the Public Research Institutes to Their Strategic Decision-Making," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-22, June.
    10. Mary J. Benner, 2010. "Securities Analysts and Incumbent Response to Radical Technological Change: Evidence from Digital Photography and Internet Telephony," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(1), pages 42-62, February.
    11. Pettus, Michael L. & Kor, Yasemin Y. & Mahoney, Joseph T., 2007. "A Theory of Change in Turbulent Environments: The Sequencing of Dynamic Capabilities Following Industry Deregulation," Working Papers 07-0100, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, College of Business.
    12. Hazhir Rahmandad, 2012. "Impact of Growth Opportunities and Competition on Firm-Level Capability Development Trade-offs," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(1), pages 138-154, February.
    13. Iman Seoudi & Matthias Huehn & Bo Carlsson, 2008. "Penrose Revisited: A Re-Appraisal of the Resource Perspective," Working Papers 14, The German University in Cairo, Faculty of Management Technology.
    14. Laurence Capron & Will Mitchell, 2009. "Selection Capability: How Capability Gaps and Internal Social Frictions Affect Internal and External Strategic Renewal," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(2), pages 294-312, April.
    15. Godart, Frédéric & Pistilli, Luca, 2024. "The multifaceted concept of disruption: A typology," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    16. Pedota, Mattia & Cicala, Francesco & Basti, Alessio, 2024. "A Wild Mind with a Disciplined Eye: Unleashing Human-GenAI Creativity Through Simulated Entity Elicitation," OSF Preprints 3bn95, Center for Open Science.
    17. Maria Rosa De Giacomo & Raimund Bleischwitz, 2020. "Business models for environmental sustainability: Contemporary shortcomings and some perspectives," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(8), pages 3352-3369, December.
    18. Andrew A. King & Christopher L. Tucci, 2002. "Incumbent Entry into New Market Niches: The Role of Experience and Managerial Choice in the Creation of Dynamic Capabilities," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(2), pages 171-186, February.
    19. Kodama, Mitsuru & Hashimoto, Keisuke, 2024. "Research on high-end disruptive innovations - Analysis and insights from the video conferencing systems market," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    20. Khaled Naser Yousef Magableh & Selvi Kannan & Aladeen Yousef Rashid Hmoud, 2024. "Innovation Business Model: Adoption of Blockchain Technology and Big Data Analytics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-25, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:6:y:2024:i:2:n:e176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)2573-5152 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.