IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/fufsci/v5y2023i3-4ne158.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Explaining and critiquing the postnormal: A warning against ideologies in the field of futures and foresight

Author

Listed:
  • Alex Fergnani

Abstract

“Postnormal” currents of thought, which are herein used in reference to the post‐normal science and the postnormal times frameworks, have been tremendously useful to help us understand the limits of science and the nature of societal change. Yet a blanket adherence to these frameworks without scrutiny risks falling into an unsubstantiated ideology. In response to and as a prevention of this risk, this article explains and critiques the two frameworks. It explains that post‐normal science is both a description of a recent trend in science applied to policy contexts and a prescriptive response to new conditions of scientific inquiry. It also explains that postnormal times is both description of societal change and expression of subjective feelings elicited by such change. The two frameworks' merits and limitations are also discussed. The article's conclusion is that while the post‐normal science framework can be rescued with some further qualifications, the postnormal times framework is particularly problematic. The discussion of the two frameworks' limitations is used as a warning against ideological positions that prevent fruitful research in the field of futures and foresight, and to encourage a more informed use of the term “postnormal.”

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Fergnani, 2023. "Explaining and critiquing the postnormal: A warning against ideologies in the field of futures and foresight," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(3-4), September.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:5:y:2023:i:3-4:n:e158
    DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.158
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.158
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/ffo2.158?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tacconi, Luca, 1998. "Scientific methodology for ecological economics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 91-105, October.
    2. Fuller, Ted, 2017. "Anxious relationships: The unmarked futures for post-normal scenarios in anticipatory systems," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 41-50.
    3. Alessandro Fergnani & Thomas J. Chermack, 2021. "The resistance to scientific theory in futures and foresight, and what to do about it," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shardul Sharad Phadnis, 2021. "Advancing scenario planning theory: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack, 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    2. Jauernig, Johanna & Uhl, Matthias & Valentinov, Vladislav, 2021. "The ethics of corporate hypocrisy: An experimental approach," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 131.
    3. Lundgren, Jakob, 2022. "Unity through disunity: Strengths, values, and tensions in the disciplinary discourse of ecological economics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    4. Buch-Hansen, Hubert & Nesterova, Iana, 2021. "Towards a science of deep transformations: Initiating a dialogue between degrowth and critical realism," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    5. James Derbyshire & Mandeep Dhami & Ian Belton & Dilek Önkal, 2023. "The value of experiments in futures and foresight science as illustrated by the case of scenario planning," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), June.
    6. Gerard P. Hodgkinson, 2021. "Why appealing to the virtues of scientific theory (and method) is necessary but insufficient for effecting systemic change: Commentary on Fergnani & Chermack, 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    7. Kastenhofer, Karen & Bechtold, Ulrike & Wilfing, Harald, 2011. "Sustaining sustainability science: The role of established inter-disciplines," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(4), pages 835-843, February.
    8. Clive L. Spash, 2012. "Towards the Integration of Social, Economic and Ecological Knowledge," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Julien-François Gerber & Rolf Steppacher (ed.), Towards an Integrated Paradigm in Heterodox Economics, chapter 1, pages 26-46, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. Gábor Király & Alexandra Köves & György Pataki & Gabriella Kiss, 2016. "Assessing the Participatory Potential of Systems Mapping," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(4), pages 496-514, July.
    10. Aguaron, Juan & Escobar, Maria Teresa & Moreno-Jimenez, Jose Maria, 2003. "Consistency stability intervals for a judgement in AHP decision support systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 382-393, March.
    11. Fraser Reilly‐King & Colleen Duggan & Alex Wilner, 2024. "Foresight and futures thinking for international development co‐operation: Promises and pitfalls," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 42(S1), June.
    12. Muller, Adrian, 2003. "A flower in full blossom?: Ecological economics at the crossroads between normal and post-normal science," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 19-27, April.
    13. Ahti Salo, 2021. "Developing the needed scientific theory will not be easy: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    14. Spash, Clive L., 2012. "Ecological Economics and Philosophy of Science: Ontology, Epistemology, Methodology and Ideology," SRE-Discussion Papers 2012/03, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    15. Hakmaoui, Abdelati & Oubrich, Mourad & Calof, Jonathan & El Ghazi, Hamid, 2022. "Towards an anticipatory system incorporating corporate foresight and competitive intelligence in creating knowledge: a longitudinal Moroccan bank case study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    16. Shi, Tian, 2004. "Ecological economics as a policy science: rhetoric or commitment towards an improved decision-making process on sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 23-36, January.
    17. Baumgärtner, Stefan & Becker, Christian & Frank, Karin & Müller, Birgit & Quaas, Martin, 2008. "Relating the philosophy and practice of ecological economics: The role of concepts, models, and case studies in inter- and transdisciplinary sustainability research," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 384-393, October.
    18. Castro e Silva, Manuela & Teixeira, Aurora A.C., 2011. "A bibliometric account of the evolution of EE in the last two decades: Is ecological economics (becoming) a post-normal science?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(5), pages 849-862, March.
    19. Yusuke Kishita & Toshiki Kusaka & Yuji Mizuno & Yasushi Umeda, 2021. "Toward theory development in futures and foresight by drawing on design theory: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    20. Kragt, Marit Ellen, 2013. "Evidence-based Research in Environmental Choice Experiments," Working Papers 153335, University of Western Australia, School of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:5:y:2023:i:3-4:n:e158. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)2573-5152 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.