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How historical analysis can enrich scenario planning

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  • Paul J. H. Schoemaker

Abstract

Historians and scenario planners both examine societal developments over time, but from opposite vantage points. One group looks backward, the other forward. This paper argues that a deeper understanding of the methods and approaches of historical analysis can help scenario planners to develop better insights into the world ahead. The study of history stretches back millennia, while disciplined scenario planning has been around for half a century. By comparing historical analysis with scenario planning, the paper extracts lessons to improve narratives about possible futures, with linkages to the emerging field of counterfactual history. The practical challenges are examined using a 1992 scenario project about South Africa's future post‐apartheid. Reviewing the four scenarios developed then, with the benefit of hindsight now, shows how and why historical thinking can sharpen scenario‐oriented studies of the future.

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  • Paul J. H. Schoemaker, 2020. "How historical analysis can enrich scenario planning," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3-4), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:2:y:2020:i:3-4:n:e35
    DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.35
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fogel, Robert William, 2000. "The Fourth Great Awakening and the Future of Egalitarianism," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226256627.
    2. Anton D. Lowenberg, 1997. "Why South Africa'S Apartheid Economy Failed," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 15(3), pages 62-72, July.
    3. Ackoff, R. L., 1993. "Idealized design: Creative corporate visioning," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 401-410, July.
    4. Tetlock, Philip E. & Lebow, Richard Ned, 2001. "Poking Counterfactual Holes in Covering Laws: Cognitive Styles and Historical Reasoning," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 95(4), pages 829-843, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Heiko A. von der Gracht, 2022. "What's luck got to do with it? Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(1), March.
    2. Nicholas Glunt & Jazzmine McCauley & Nicholas J. Rowland & Shanette Wahor & Alexander B. Kinney & Nathan E. Kruis, 2023. "The theory of narrative thought, by Lee Roy Beach and James A. Wise. UK: Cambridge Scholars Publishing, 2022. x+195 pp. ISBN: 1527581624 (hardback); £64.99," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), June.
    3. Matthew J. Spaniol & Matthew J. Evans & Kristian Tranekær & Nicholas J. Rowland & Nick P. Atkinson, 2021. "Still fooled by randomness, twenty years later?," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(2), June.
    4. Johann Peter Murmann, 2020. "Historical methods in the social sciences: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3-4), September.
    5. Paul J. H. Schoemaker, 2021. "Macro worlds and micro predictions: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(2), June.
    6. Philip E. Tetlock, 2020. "Can we accelerate learning from history? South Africa then and now: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3-4), September.
    7. Nicholas J. Rowland & Matthew J. Spaniol, 2020. "Intensifying intellectual traffic between history and futures studies: A commentary on Schoemaker 2020," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3-4), September.
    8. Matti Minkkinen, 2021. "Rigor and diversity in the futures field: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    9. Alexander B. Kinney, 2021. "Craft Weed: Family farming and the future of the marijuana industry. Ryan Stoa. 2018. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. 256 pages. ISBN: 9780262038867 (hrbk $27.95)," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    10. David J. Grüning, 2023. "Free will determines the limits of psychological foresight: Review of “Free Will” by Sam Harris," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(1), March.

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