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Extracting scenario archetypes: A quantitative text analysis of documents about the future

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  • Alessandro Fergnani
  • Mike Jackson

Abstract

We propose a scenario planning method that combines quantitative text analysis with the creation of scenario narratives. We design a variation in the scenario archetypes method (Dator, Journal of Futures Studies, 14, 1–18, 2009), a futures method to create four archetypal scenarios based on four predetermined generic alternative futures named continued growth, collapse, discipline, and transformation. In our variation, we extract archetypal information on the futures from documents about the future via quantitative text analytic techniques, and qualitatively elaborate this information into comprehensive narrative scenarios. This method can harness the abundance of unstructured textual data, significantly reducing the time employed to collect the relevant building block information to write scenarios without decreasing the scenarios’ quality. On the contrary, the text analytic algorithm we use allows us to identify very rich and archetype‐specific information. We present the result of an application of this method in a case study on the futures of work. The method's contributions to the futures literature and limitations are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Fergnani & Mike Jackson, 2019. "Extracting scenario archetypes: A quantitative text analysis of documents about the future," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(2), June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:1:y:2019:i:2:n:e17
    DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.17
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Boschetti, Fabio & Price, Jennifer & Walker, Iain, 2016. "Myths of the future and scenario archetypes," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 76-85.
    2. Grimmer, Justin & Stewart, Brandon M., 2013. "Text as Data: The Promise and Pitfalls of Automatic Content Analysis Methods for Political Texts," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 267-297, July.
    3. Dexter V. L. Hunt & D. Rachel Lombardi & Stuart Atkinson & Austin R. G. Barber & Matthew Barnes & Christopher T. Boyko & Julie Brown & John Bryson & David Butler & Silvio Caputo & Maria Caserio & Rich, 2012. "Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-33, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Undheim, Trond Arne, 2024. "In search of better methods for the longitudinal assessment of tech-derived X-risks: How five leading scenario planning efforts can help," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    2. Alessandro Fergnani & Thomas J. Chermack, 2021. "The resistance to scientific theory in futures and foresight, and what to do about it," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    3. Heiko A. von der Gracht, 2022. "What's luck got to do with it? Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(1), March.
    4. Heiko A. von der Gracht, 2020. "Mechanics of the future: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3-4), September.
    5. Matti Minkkinen, 2021. "Rigor and diversity in the futures field: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    6. Alexander B. Kinney, 2021. "Craft Weed: Family farming and the future of the marijuana industry. Ryan Stoa. 2018. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. 256 pages. ISBN: 9780262038867 (hrbk $27.95)," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    7. Camille Jahel & Robin Bourgeois & Denis Pesche & Marie de Lattre‐Gasquet & Etienne Delay, 2021. "Has the COVID‐19 crisis changed our relationship to the future?," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(2), June.

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