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Early warning of bank failure : A logit regression approach

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Cited by:

  1. Yue Qiu & Jiabei He & Zhensong Chen & Yinhong Yao & Yi Qu, 2024. "A novel semisupervised learning method with textual information for financial distress prediction," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 2478-2494, November.
  2. Matthew Smith & Francisco Alvarez, 2022. "Predicting Firm-Level Bankruptcy in the Spanish Economy Using Extreme Gradient Boosting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 263-295, January.
  3. Marco Bisogno, 2012. "The Accessibility Of The Italian Bankruptcy Procedures: An Empirical Analysis," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 2(2), pages 1-24, December.
  4. Zeineb Affes & Rania Hentati-Kaffel, 2016. "Forecast bankruptcy using a blend of clustering and MARS model - Case of US banks," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01314553, HAL.
  5. Moro Russ A. & Härdle Wolfgang K. & Schäfer Dorothea, 2017. "Company rating with support vector machines," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 34(1-2), pages 55-67, June.
  6. Vincent Bouvatier & Michael Brei & Xi Yang, 2014. "Bank Failures and the Source of Strength Doctrine," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-15, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  7. Ali Namaki & Reza Eyvazloo & Shahin Ramtinnia, 2023. "A systematic review of early warning systems in finance," Papers 2310.00490, arXiv.org.
  8. Llano Monelos Pablo De & Piñeiro Sánchez Carlos & Rodríguez López Manuel, 2014. "DEA as a business failure prediction tool. Application to the case of galician SMEs," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 59(2), pages 65-96, abril-jun.
  9. Qiongbing Wu & Rebel A. Cole, 2024. "Macroeconomic conditions and bank failure," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1212-1234, August.
  10. Park, Sangkyun, 1995. "Market discipline by depositors: Evidence from reduced-form equations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(35), pages 497-514.
  11. Suzan Hol, 2006. "The influence of the business cycle on bankruptcy probability," Discussion Papers 466, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  12. Kolari, James & Glennon, Dennis & Shin, Hwan & Caputo, Michele, 2002. "Predicting large US commercial bank failures," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 361-387.
  13. Antonio Ahumada & Carlos Budnevich, 2001. "Some Measures of Financial Fragility in the Chilean Banking System: An Early Warning Indicators Application," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 117, Central Bank of Chile.
  14. Mohammad Mahdi Mousavi & Jamal Ouenniche & Kaoru Tone, 2023. "A dynamic performance evaluation of distress prediction models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 756-784, July.
  15. Gerhard Hambusch & Sherrill Shaffer, 2012. "Forecasting Bank Leverage," Working Paper Series 176, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  16. Paola Bongini & Stijn Claessens & Giovanni Ferri, 2001. "The Political Economy of Distress in East Asian Financial Institutions," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 5-25, February.
  17. Sudhir Nanda & Parag Pendharkar, 2001. "Linear models for minimizing misclassification costs in bankruptcy prediction," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(3), pages 155-168, September.
  18. Kladakis, George & Chen, Lei & Bellos, Sotirios K., 2020. "Bank asset and informational quality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
  19. Jeanneret, Alexandre & Souissi, Slim, 2016. "Sovereign defaults by currency denomination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 197-222.
  20. Asli Demirgüč-Kunt, 1989. "Deposit-institution failures: a review of empirical literature," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 25(Q IV), pages 2-18.
  21. Catarina Fernandes & Jorge Farinha & Francisco Vitorino Martins & Cesario Mateus, 2018. "Bank governance and performance: a survey of the literature," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(3), pages 236-256, July.
  22. Fiordelisi, Franco & Mare, Davide Salvatore, 2013. "Probability of default and efficiency in cooperative banking," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 30-45.
  23. Kimmel, Randall K. & Thornton, John H. & Bennett, Sara E., 2016. "Can statistics-based early warning systems detect problem banks before markets?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 190-216.
  24. Buckmann, Marcus & Gallego Marquez, Paula & Gimpelewicz, Mariana & Kapadia, Sujit & Rismanchi, Katie, 2023. "The more the merrier? Evidence on the value of multiple requirements in bank regulation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  25. Zhou, Fanyin & Fu, Lijun & Li, Zhiyong & Xu, Jiawei, 2022. "The recurrence of financial distress: A survival analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1100-1115.
  26. Marcelo Dabos, 1996. "Crisis Bancaria y Medicion de Riesgo de Default. Metodos y el Caso de los Bancos Cooperativos en Argentina," Working Papers 12, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Jul 1996.
  27. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Costola, Michele & Pasqualini, Andrea, 2016. "An entropy-based early warning indicator for systemic risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 42-59.
  28. Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
  29. D. J. Johnstone & S. Jones & V. R. R. Jose & M. Peat, 2013. "Measures of the economic value of probabilities of bankruptcy," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(3), pages 635-653, June.
  30. Elijah Brewer & Hesna Genay & William E. Jackson & Paula R. Worthington, 1996. "Performance and access to government guarantees: the case of small business investment companies," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 20(Sep), pages 16-32.
  31. Mehreen Mehreen & Maran Marimuthu & Samsul Ariffin Abdul Karim & Amin Jan, 2020. "Proposing a Multidimensional Bankruptcy Prediction Model: An Approach for Sustainable Islamic Banking," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-18, April.
  32. Zhiyong Li & Xinyi Hu & Ke Li & Fanyin Zhou & Feng Shen, 2020. "Inferring the outcomes of rejected loans: an application of semisupervised clustering," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(2), pages 631-654, February.
  33. Suarez, Javier & Sánchez Serrano, Antonio, 2018. "Approaching non-performing loans from a macroprudential angle," Report of the Advisory Scientific Committee 7, European Systemic Risk Board.
  34. Sarbjit Singh Oberoi & Sayan Banerjee, 2023. "Bankruptcy Prediction of Indian Banks Using Advanced Analytics," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 22-41.
  35. Ando, Tomohiro, 2009. "Bayesian inference for the hazard term structure with functional predictors using Bayesian predictive information criteria," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1925-1939, April.
  36. Guo Li & Lee Sanning & Sherrill Shaffer, 2009. "Statistical opacity in the US banking sector," CAMA Working Papers 2009-16, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  37. Błażej Prusak, 2018. "Review of Research into Enterprise Bankruptcy Prediction in Selected Central and Eastern European Countries," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-28, June.
  38. De Bock, Koen W. & Coussement, Kristof & Lessmann, Stefan, 2020. "Cost-sensitive business failure prediction when misclassification costs are uncertain: A heterogeneous ensemble selection approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(2), pages 612-630.
  39. Ehab Zaki & Rahim Bah & Ananth Rao, 2011. "Assessing probabilities of financial distress of banks in UAE," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(3), pages 304-320, June.
  40. Samir Trabelsi & Roc He & Lawrence He & Martin Kusy, 2015. "A comparison of Bayesian, Hazard, and Mixed Logit model of bankruptcy prediction," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 81-97, January.
  41. Chung, Joseph & To, Minh Chau & Thrin, Minh Anh, 1982. "Une mesure composite du risque des prêts hypothécaires," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 58(4), pages 463-476, décembre.
  42. Anatoly Peresetsky & Alexandr Karminsky & Sergei Golovan, 2011. "Probability of default models of Russian banks," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 297-334, November.
  43. Li, Xiaofei & Escalante, Cesar L. & Epperson, James E. & Gunter, Lewell F., 2012. "Agricultural Banking and Early Warning Models for the Bank Failures of the Late 2000s Great Recession," 2012 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2012, Birmingham, Alabama 119656, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  44. Hassan R. HassabElnaby, 2006. "Waiving Technical Default: The Role of Agency Costs and Bank Regulations," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9‐10), pages 1368-1389, November.
  45. Mare, Davide Salvatore, 2015. "Contribution of macroeconomic factors to the prediction of small bank failures," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 25-39.
  46. Fernando Zambrano Farias & María del Carmen Valls Martínez & Pedro Antonio Martín-Cervantes, 2021. "Explanatory Factors of Business Failure: Literature Review and Global Trends," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-26, September.
  47. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2012-030 is not listed on IDEAS
  48. Dimitras, A. I. & Zanakis, S. H. & Zopounidis, C., 1996. "A survey of business failures with an emphasis on prediction methods and industrial applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 487-513, May.
  49. Hanh Hong Le & Jean-Laurent Viviani & Fitriya Fauzi, 2023. "Why do banks fail? An investigation via text mining," Post-Print hal-04223185, HAL.
  50. POWO FOSSO, Bruno, 2000. "Les déterminants des faillites bancaires dans les pays en développement: le cas des pays de l'Union économique et monétaire Ouest-africaine (UEMOA)," Cahiers de recherche 2000-02, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  51. Isik, Ihsan & Uygur, Ozge, 2021. "Financial crises, bank efficiency and survival: Theory, literature and emerging market evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 952-987.
  52. Goriunov Dmytro & Venzhyk Katerina, 2013. "Loan Default Prediction in Ukrainian Retail Banking," EERC Working Paper Series 13/07e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
  53. Fernández Sainz, Ana Isabel & Llaugel, Felipe, 2011. "¿Bancos con Problemas? Un Sistema de Alerta Temprana para la Prevención de Crisis Bancarias," Cuadernos de Gestión, Universidad del País Vasco - Instituto de Economía Aplicada a la Empresa (IEAE).
  54. Giuseppe Forte & Federico Alberini & Mark Simmons & Hugh E. Stitt, 2021. "Use of acoustic emission in combination with machine learning: monitoring of gas–liquid mixing in stirred tanks," Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 633-647, February.
  55. Cao Son Tran & Dan Nicolau & Richi Nayak & Peter Verhoeven, 2021. "Modeling Credit Risk: A Category Theory Perspective," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-21, July.
  56. Santosh Kumar Das & Khushboo Uppal, 2021. "NPAs and profitability in Indian banks: an empirical analysis," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-9, December.
  57. Kick, Thomas & Koetter, Michael, 2007. "Slippery slopes of stress: Ordered failure events in German banking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 132-148, July.
  58. Greta Falavigna, 2006. "Models for Default Risk Analysis: Focus on Artificial Neural Networks, Model Comparisons, Hybrid Frameworks," CERIS Working Paper 200610, CNR-IRCrES Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Torino (TO) ITALY - former Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.
  59. José Eduardo Gómez González & Ines Paola Orozco Hinojosa, 2010. "Un modelo de alerta temprana para el sistema financiero colombiano," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 28(62), pages 124-147, June.
  60. Antonio Ahumada C. & Carlos Budnevich L., 1999. "Assessment of Banking System Fragility During Non-Crisis Periods: Chile 1990-1998," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 2(2), pages 021-038, August.
  61. International Association of Deposit Insurers, 2011. "Evaluation of Deposit Insurance Fund Sufficiency on the Basis of Risk Analysis," IADI Research Papers 11-11, International Association of Deposit Insurers.
  62. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Prastyo, Dedy Dwi, 2013. "Default risk calculation based on predictor selection for the Southeast Asian industry," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2013-037, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  63. Alexander Hölzl & Sebastian Lobe, 2016. "Predicting above-median and below-median growth rates," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 105-133, January.
  64. Slawomir Juszczyk & Rafal Balina, 2013. "Effectiveness of Polish and Foreign Disdcriminant Models," Diversity, Technology, and Innovation for Operational Competitiveness: Proceedings of the 2013 International Conference on Technology Innovation and Industrial Management,, ToKnowPress.
  65. Quentin Bro de Comères, 2022. "Predicting European Banks Distress Events: Do Financial Information Producers Matter?," Working Papers hal-03752678, HAL.
  66. Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Gang-Jin Wang & Askery Canabarro & Boris Podobnik & Chi Xie & H. Eugene Stanley & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2018. "Short term prediction of extreme returns based on the recurrence interval analysis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 353-370, March.
  67. Henebry, Kathleen L., 1996. "Do cash flow variables improve the predictive accuracy of a Cox proportional hazards model for bank failure?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 395-409.
  68. Josep M. Argilés, 1998. "Accounting information and the prediction of farm viability," Economics Working Papers 277, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  69. Veres Ferrer, Ernesto Jesús & Labatut Serer, Gregorio & Pozuelo Campillo, Jose, 2009. "Hacia una ordenación de las pequeñas empresas atendiendo a su posible situación de fracaso/Towards a Ranking of Smaller Companies According to Their Failure Risk," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 27, pages 775(18á)-77, Diciembre.
  70. Lohmann, Christian & Möllenhoff, Steffen, 2023. "Dark premonitions: Pre-bankruptcy investor attention and behavior," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  71. Douglas, Ella & Lont, David & Scott, Tom, 2014. "Finance company failure in New Zealand during 2006–2009: Predictable failures?," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 277-295.
  72. Carro, Adrian & Stupariu, Patricia, 2024. "Uncertainty, non-linear contagion and the credit quality channel: An application to the Spanish interbank market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  73. Andrea Bedin & Monica Billio & Michele Costola & Loriana Pelizzon, 2019. "Credit Scoring in SME Asset-Backed Securities: An Italian Case Study," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-28, May.
  74. Thomas B. King & Daniel A. Nuxoll & Timothy J. Yeager, 2006. "Are the causes of bank distress changing? can researchers keep up?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(Jan), pages 57-80.
  75. Andras Viktor Szabo, 2022. "Credit Risk Modelling of Mortgage Loans in the Supervisory Stress Test of the Magyar Nemzeti Bank," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 21(1), pages 56-94.
  76. Jorge Guillén, 2009. "A lesson to learn from developed countries: The Case of State Branching Deregulation in the US," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 36(1 Year 20), pages 67-95, June.
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  79. Wolfgang Härdle & Yuh-Jye Lee & Dorothea Schäfer & Yi-Ren Yeh, 2009. "Variable selection and oversampling in the use of smooth support vector machines for predicting the default risk of companies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 512-534.
  80. Ravi Kumar, P. & Ravi, V., 2007. "Bankruptcy prediction in banks and firms via statistical and intelligent techniques - A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 1-28, July.
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  83. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_021 is not listed on IDEAS
  84. Philip Swicegood & Jeffrey A. Clark, 2001. "Off‐site monitoring systems for predicting bank underperformance: a comparison of neural networks, discriminant analysis, and professional human judgment," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(3), pages 169-186, September.
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  86. Byungun Yoon & Taeyeoun Roh & Hyejin Jang & Dooseob Yun, 2019. "Developing an Risk Signal Detection System Based on Opinion Mining for Financial Decision Support," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-26, August.
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  88. Zhivaikina, A. & Peresetsky, A., 2017. "Russian Bank Credit Ratings and Bank License Withdrawal 2012-2016," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 49-80.
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  99. Koen W. de Bock & Kristof Coussement & Stefan Lessmann, 2020. "Cost-sensitive business failure prediction when misclassification costs are uncertain: A heterogeneous ensemble selection approach," Post-Print hal-02863245, HAL.
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  122. Wolfgang Härdle & Yuh-Jye Lee & Dorothea Schäfer & Yi-Ren Yeh, 2007. "The Default Risk of Firms Examined with Smooth Support Vector Machines," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 757, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  123. Zeineb Affes & Rania Hentati-Kaffel, 2016. "Forecast bankruptcy using a blend of clustering and MARS model - Case of US banks," Post-Print halshs-01314553, HAL.
  124. Kéa Baret & Amélie Barbier-Gauchard & Théophilos Papadimitriou, 2021. "Forecasting the Stability and Growth Pact compliance using Machine Learning," Working Papers of BETA 2021-01, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  125. Liu, Fengqi & Kang, Yuxin & Guo, Kun, 2022. "Is electricity consumption of Chinese counties decoupled from carbon emissions? A study based on Tapio decoupling index," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
  126. Halil Erdal & Aykut Ekinci, 2013. "A Comparison of Various Artificial Intelligence Methods in the Prediction of Bank Failures," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 42(2), pages 199-215, August.
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