IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/actuec/v58y1982i4p463-476.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Une mesure composite du risque des prêts hypothécaires

Author

Listed:
  • Chung, Joseph

    (Professeur de Sciences économiques (UQAM))

  • To, Minh Chau

    (Professeur de Sciences administratives (UQAM))

  • Thrin, Minh Anh

    (Coordonnateur des Recherches économiques (Société Canadienne d’Hypothèques et de Logement))

Abstract

In this study, a cardinal and continuous measure of the default risk of mortgage loans is proposed, in departure from past studies where that risk was measured by dichotomous or categorical variables. The cardinal and continuous measure of risk is obtained by use of the canonical factor analytic technique. The unique factor of risk is a linear combination of the rate of return on equity, of the break-even rental income and of the vacancy rate of the property, and also of the relative term of the mortgage loans. It is found that the default risk of mortgage loans is well explained by the attributes of the property and of the neighbourhood, as well as by the location and the mortgage ratio. Furthermore, the buyer seems to incur hidden transaction costs which increase his risk level over that observed of the seller.

Suggested Citation

  • Chung, Joseph & To, Minh Chau & Thrin, Minh Anh, 1982. "Une mesure composite du risque des prêts hypothécaires," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 58(4), pages 463-476, décembre.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:58:y:1982:i:4:p:463-476
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://id.erudit.org/iderudit/601033ar
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karson, Marvin J. & Martell, Terrence F., 1980. "On the Interpretation of Individual Variables in Multiple Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 211-217, March.
    2. Joy, O. Maurice & Tollefson, John O., 1975. "On the Financial Applications of Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(5), pages 723-739, December.
    3. von Furstenberg, George M, 1969. "Default Risk on FHA-Insured Home Mortgages as a Function of the Terms of Financing: A Quantitative Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 24(3), pages 459-477, June.
    4. George M. von Furstenberg & R. Jeffrey Green, 1974. "Estimation of Delinquency Risk for Home Mortgage Portfolios," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 2(1), pages 5-19, March.
    5. Vandell, Kerry D, 1978. "Default Risk under Alternative Mortgage Instruments," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(5), pages 1279-1296, December.
    6. Yawitz, Jess B., 1977. "An Analytical Model of Interest Rate Differentials and Different Default Recoveries," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 481-490, September.
    7. Martin, Daniel, 1977. "Early warning of bank failure : A logit regression approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 249-276, November.
    8. Daniel McFadden, 1976. "A Comment on Discriminant Analysis "Versus" Logit Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 511-523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Kaplan, Robert S & Urwitz, Gabriel, 1979. "Statistical Models of Bond Ratings: A Methodological Inquiry," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(2), pages 231-261, April.
    10. Sandor, Richard L & Sosin, Howard B, 1975. "The Determinants of Mortgage Risk Premiums: A Case Study of the Portfolio of a Savings and Loan Association," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(1), pages 27-38, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. George H. Lentz & Ko Wang, 1998. "Residential Appraisal and the Lending Process: A Survey of Issues," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 15(1), pages 11-40.
    2. Kerry D. Vandell, 1984. "On the Assessment of Default Risk in Commercial Mortgage Lending," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 12(3), pages 270-296, September.
    3. John W. Pacey & Toan M. Pham, 1990. "The Predictiveness of Bankruptcy Models: Methodological Problems and Evidence," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 15(2), pages 315-337, December.
    4. Petr Jakubík & Petr Teplý, 2011. "The JT Index as an Indicator of Financial Stability of Corporate Sector," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(2), pages 157-176.
    5. Dimitras, A. I. & Zanakis, S. H. & Zopounidis, C., 1996. "A survey of business failures with an emphasis on prediction methods and industrial applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 487-513, May.
    6. Zhivaikina, A. & Peresetsky, A., 2017. "Russian Bank Credit Ratings and Bank License Withdrawal 2012-2016," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 49-80.
    7. Danny Ben-Shahar, 2006. "Screening Mortgage Default Risk: A Unified Theoretical Framework," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 28(3), pages 215-240.
    8. Thomas M. Springer & Neil G. Waller, 1993. "Lender Forbearance: Evidence from Mortgage Delinquency Patterns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(1), pages 27-46, March.
    9. Poitras, Geoffrey & Zanotti, Giovanna, 2016. "Mortgage contract design and systemic risk immunization," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 320-331.
    10. Rais Ahmad Itoo & Selvarasu Appasamy Mutharasu & José António Filipe, 2013. "Effect of Loan Value and Collateral on Value of Mortgage Default," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 3(4), pages 635-635.
    11. Barrios, Salvador & Navajas Cawood, Elena, 2008. "The Location of ICT activities in EU regions. Implications for regional policies," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 13, pages 179-210.
    12. Ruey-Ching Hwang, 2013. "Forecasting credit ratings with the varying-coefficient model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 1947-1965, December.
    13. ManYing Kang & Marcel Ausloos, 2017. "An Inverse Problem Study: Credit Risk Ratings as a Determinant of Corporate Governance and Capital Structure in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-23, November.
    14. Suzan Hol, 2006. "The influence of the business cycle on bankruptcy probability," Discussion Papers 466, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    15. Jeremy Leake, 2003. "Credit spreads on sterling corporate bonds and the term structure of UK interest rates," Bank of England working papers 202, Bank of England.
    16. Stefano Colonnello & Mariela Dal Borgo, 2024. "Raising Household Leverage: Evidence from Co-Financed Mortgages," Working Papers 2024: 01, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    17. Zhou, Fanyin & Fu, Lijun & Li, Zhiyong & Xu, Jiawei, 2022. "The recurrence of financial distress: A survival analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1100-1115.
    18. Suarez, Javier & Sánchez Serrano, Antonio, 2018. "Approaching non-performing loans from a macroprudential angle," Report of the Advisory Scientific Committee 7, European Systemic Risk Board.
    19. Davidescu Adriana AnaMaria & Agafiței Marina-Diana & Strat Vasile Alecsandru & Dima Alina Mihaela, 2024. "Mapping the Landscape: A Bibliometric Analysis of Rating Agencies in the Era of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 18(1), pages 67-85.
    20. José Eduardo Gómez González & Ines Paola Orozco Hinojosa, 2010. "Un modelo de alerta temprana para el sistema financiero colombiano," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 28(62), pages 124-147, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:58:y:1982:i:4:p:463-476. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Benoit Dostie (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/scseeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.