IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/sfb649/sfb649dp2007-035.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating probabilities of default with support vector machines

Author

Listed:
  • Härdle, Wolfgang Karl
  • Moro, Rouslan A.
  • Schäfer, Dorothea

Abstract

This paper proposes a rating methodology that is based on a non-linear classification method, the support vector machine, and a non-parametric technique for mapping rating scores into probabilities of default. We give an introduction to underlying statistical models and represent the results of testing our approach on German Bundesbank data. In particular we discuss the selection of variables and give a comparison with more traditional approaches such as discriminant analysis and the logit regression. The results demonstrate that the SVM has clear advantages over these methods for all variables tested.

Suggested Citation

  • Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Moro, Rouslan A. & Schäfer, Dorothea, 2007. "Estimating probabilities of default with support vector machines," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2007-035, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2007-035
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/25207/1/558556450.PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2007. "Learning, Structural Instability, and Present Value Calculations," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 253-288.
    2. Taylor, Mark P. & Schmidt, Markus & Reitz, Stefan, 2007. "End-user order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,05, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. repec:rus:hseeco:318682 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Strotmann, Harald & Döpke, Jörg & Buch, Claudia M., 2006. "Does trade openness increase firm-level volatility?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,40, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Natalia Nehrebecka, 2021. "Internal Credit Risk Models and Digital Transformation: What to Prepare for? An Application to Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 3), pages 719-736.
    2. Tyler Pike & Horacio Sapriza & Tom Zimmermann, 2019. "Bottom-up Leading Macroeconomic Indicators: An Application to Non-Financial Corporate Defaults using Machine Learning," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-070, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Wolfgang Härdle & Yuh-Jye Lee & Dorothea Schäfer & Yi-Ren Yeh, 2009. "Variable selection and oversampling in the use of smooth support vector machines for predicting the default risk of companies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 512-534.
    4. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp757 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Nehrebecka Natalia, 2018. "Predicting the Default Risk of Companies. Comparison of Credit Scoring Models: Logit Vs Support Vector Machines," Econometrics. Advances in Applied Data Analysis, Sciendo, vol. 22(2), pages 54-73, June.
    6. Zhang, Junni L. & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2008. "The bayesian additive classification tree applied to credit risk modelling," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-003, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    7. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-005 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Jakubik, Petr & Moinescu, Bogdan, 2015. "Assessing optimal credit growth for an emerging banking system," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 577-591.
    9. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-003 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Wolfgang Härdle & Yuh-Jye Lee & Dorothea Schäfer & Yi-Ren Yeh, 2007. "The Default Risk of Firms Examined with Smooth Support Vector Machines," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 757, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Binder, Michael & Offermanns, Christian J., 2007. "International investment positions and exchange rate dynamics: A dynamic panel analysis," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/23, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    2. Loretan, Michael Stanislaus & Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2007. "A note on the coefficient of determination in regression models with infinite-variance variables," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,10, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Kosuke Aoki & Takeshi Kimura, 2007. "Uncertainty about Perceived Inflation Target and Monetary Policy," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-16, Bank of Japan.
    4. Faria, Pedro & Schmidt, Tobias, 2007. "International cooperation on innovation: empirical evidence for German and Portuguese firms," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,30, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Lemke, Wolfgang, 2008. "An affine macro-finance term structure model for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 41-69, March.
    6. Ramb, Fred, 2007. "Corporate marginal tax rate, tax loss carryforwards and investment functions: empirical analysis using a large German panel data set," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,21, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Pausch, Thilo, 2007. "Endogenous credit derivatives and bank behavior," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,16, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Tödter, Karl-Heinz & Manzke, Bernhard, 2007. "The welfare effects of inflation: a cost-benefit perspective," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,33, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Frey, Rainer & Hussinger, Katrin, 2006. "The role of technology in M&As: a firm-level comparison of cross-border and domestic deals," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,45, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Kick, Thomas & Koetter, Michael, 2007. "Slippery slopes of stress: Ordered failure events in German banking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 132-148, July.
    11. Arnold, Ivo J. M. & Kool, Clemens J. M. & Raabe, Katharina, 2006. "Industries and the bank lending effects of bank credit demand and monetary policy in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,48, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Nikolai Stähler, 2008. "Unemployment and Employment Protection in a Unionized Economy with Search Frictions," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 22(2), pages 271-289, June.
    13. Falko Fecht & Hans Grüner, 2008. "Limits to International Banking Consolidation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(5), pages 651-666, November.
    14. Ziegler, Christina & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "How good are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Greiber, Claus & Setzer, Ralph, 2007. "Money and housing: evidence for the euro area and the US," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,12, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Theofanis Archontakis & Wolfgang Lemke, 2008. "Threshold Dynamics of Short‐term Interest Rates: Empirical Evidence and Implications for the Term Structure," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 37(1), pages 75-117, February.
    17. Muendler, Marc A & Becker, Sascha O., 2006. "The Effect of FDI on Job Separation," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt28h3p82z, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    18. Hakenes, Hendrik & Fecht, Falko, 2006. "Money market derivatives and the allocation of liquidity risk in the banking sector," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2006,12, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Lütkebohmert, Eva & Gordy, Michael B., 2007. "Granularity adjustment for Basel II," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2010. "Private information, stock markets, and exchange rates," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 186-210, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bankruptcy; Company rating; Default probability; Support vector machines;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2007-035. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sohubde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.