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Forecasting distress in cooperative banks: The role of asset quality

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  • Forgione, Antonio Fabio
  • Migliardo, Carlo

Abstract

This paper analyzes the drivers of financial distress that were experienced by small Italian cooperative banks during the latest deep recession, focusing mainly on the importance of bank capital as a predictor of bankruptcy for Italian nonprofit banks. The analysis aims to build an early-warning model that is suitable for this type of bank.

Suggested Citation

  • Forgione, Antonio Fabio & Migliardo, Carlo, 2018. "Forecasting distress in cooperative banks: The role of asset quality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 678-695.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:34:y:2018:i:4:p:678-695
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.04.008
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    Cited by:

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    3. Onkar Shivraj Swami & B. Nethaji & Jyoti Prakash Sharma, 2022. "Determining Risk Factors that Diminish Asset Quality of Indian Commercial Banks," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 23(2), pages 372-384, April.
    4. Davide Salvatore Mare & Dieter Gramlich, 2021. "Risk exposures of European cooperative banks: a comparative analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 1-23, January.
    5. Wei Xu & Yuchen Pan & Wenting Chen & Hongyong Fu, 2019. "Forecasting Corporate Failure in the Chinese Energy Sector: A Novel Integrated Model of Deep Learning and Support Vector Machine," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-20, June.
    6. Doumpos, Michalis & Zopounidis, Constantin & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Platanakis, Emmanouil & Zhang, Wenke, 2023. "Operational research and artificial intelligence methods in banking," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(1), pages 1-16.
    7. Veganzones, David & Séverin, Eric & Chlibi, Souhir, 2023. "Influence of earnings management on forecasting corporate failure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 123-143.
    8. Bekirova, Olga & Zubarev, Andrey, 2022. "Факторы Риска, Прибыльности И Вероятности Дефолта В Российском Банковском Секторе [Determinants of risk, profitability and probability of default for Russian banking sector]," MPRA Paper 115164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ali Meftah Gerged & Mohamed Marie & Israa Elbendary, 2022. "Estimating the Risk of Financial Distress Using a Multi-Layered Governance Criterion: Insights from Middle Eastern and North African Banks," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-22, December.
    10. Bekirova, Olga & Zubarev, Andrey, 2023. "Determinants of risk, profitability and default probability of Russian banks," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 71, pages 20-38.

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