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Die Verlustverteilung des unternehmerischen Forderungsausfallrisikos – Eine simulationsbasierte Modellierung

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  • Dannenberg, Henry

Abstract

Ein wichtiges Instrument des Risikocontrollings stellt die Unterlegung von Risiken mit Eigenkapital- bzw. Liquiditätsreserven dar. Hierfür ist es erforderlich, für alle wesentlichen Einzelrisiken Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilungen der möglichen Verluste zu bestimmen, auf deren Grundlage die Ermittlung des Eigenkapitalbedarfs erfolgen kann. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird ein simulationsbasiertes Modell vorgestellt, daß eine Bewertung des Forderungsausfallrisikos eines gewerblichen Unternehmens ermöglicht. Es werden Wege aufgezeigt, wie die Risikokomponenten Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeit, Ausfallquote und Forderungshöhe zum Ausfallzeitpunkt geschätzt werden können. Dabei werden sowohl Unsicherheiten bei der Bestimmung der Inputfaktoren als auch deren Variabilität berücksichtigt. Für den Fall, daß ein Unternehmen nicht in der Lage ist, alle Risikokomponenten selbständig zu schätzen, werden auf Grundlage einer empirischen Erhebung Verteilungsfunktionen zur Bestimmung der Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeit und der Ausfallquote zur Verfügung gestellt.

Suggested Citation

  • Dannenberg, Henry, 2006. "Die Verlustverteilung des unternehmerischen Forderungsausfallrisikos – Eine simulationsbasierte Modellierung," IWH Discussion Papers 10/2006, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:iwh-10-06
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Simulation; Forderungsausfallrisiko; Risikobewertung; simulation; risk of bad debt losses; risk assessment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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