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Forecasting corporate distress in the Asian and Pacific region

Author

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  • Moro, Russ
  • Härdle, Wolfgang Karl
  • Aliakbari, Saeideh
  • Hoffmann, Linda

Abstract

This study analyses credit default risk for firms in the Asian and Pacific region by applying two methodologies: a Support Vector Machine (SVM) and a logistic regression (Logit). Among different financial ratios suggested as predictors of default, leverage ratios and the company size display a higher discriminating power compared to others. An analysis of the dependencies between PD and financial ratios is provided along with a comparison with Europe (Germany). With respect to forecasting accuracy the SVM has a lower model risk than the Logit on average and displays a more robust performance. This result holds true across different years.

Suggested Citation

  • Moro, Russ & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Aliakbari, Saeideh & Hoffmann, Linda, 2011. "Forecasting corporate distress in the Asian and Pacific region," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-023, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2011-023
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Herrera, Rodrigo & Schipp, Bernhard, 2011. "Extreme value models in a conditional duration intensity framework," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-022, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit risk; bankruptcy; Asian companies; SVM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics

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