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Bottom-up Leading Macroeconomic Indicators: An Application to Non-Financial Corporate Defaults using Machine Learning

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Abstract

This paper constructs a leading macroeconomic indicator from microeconomic data using recent machine learning techniques. Using tree-based methods, we estimate probabilities of default for publicly traded non-financial firms in the United States. We then use the cross-section of out-of-sample predicted default probabilities to construct a leading indicator of non-financial corporate health. The index predicts real economic outcomes such as GDP growth and employment up to eight quarters ahead. Impulse responses validate the interpretation of the index as a measure of financial stress.

Suggested Citation

  • Tyler Pike & Horacio Sapriza & Tom Zimmermann, 2019. "Bottom-up Leading Macroeconomic Indicators: An Application to Non-Financial Corporate Defaults using Machine Learning," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-070, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2019-70
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2019.070
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    Cited by:

    1. Giacomo De Giorgi & Matthew Harding & Gabriel Vasconcelos, 2021. "Predicting Mortality from Credit Reports," Papers 2111.03662, arXiv.org.
    2. Michael T. Kiley, 2020. "Financial Conditions and Economic Activity: Insights from Machine Learning," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-095, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Corporate Default; Early Warning Indicators; Economic Activity; Machine Learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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