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Early Warning System for the European Insurance Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Lorenzo Danieli

    (European Securities and Markets Authority)

  • Petr Jakubik

    (European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority)

Abstract

This study proposes an Early Warning System model composed of macro-financial and company-specific indicators that could help to anticipate a potential market distress in the European insurance sector. A distress is defined as periods in which insurance companies’ equity prices crash and CDS spreads spike simultaneously. The model is estimated using a sample of 36 insurance companies that are listed. Based on a fixed-effects panel binomial logit specification, empirical evidence shows that economic overheating that could be manifested by high economic growth, inflation and interest rates have negative impact on insurance sector stability. At the company level, a drop in return on assets and price-to-book value or raising operating expenses increase the likelihood of distress occurrence.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Danieli & Petr Jakubik, 2022. "Early Warning System for the European Insurance Sector," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 70(1), pages 3-21, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sav:journl:v:70:y:2022:i:1:p:3-21
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    early warning system; insurance sector; financial distress;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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