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Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices

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Cited by:

  1. Butler, J. S. & Schachter, Barry, 1996. "The statistical properties of parameters inferred from the black-scholes formula," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 223-235.
  2. Jarno Talponen, 2018. "Matching distributions: Recovery of implied physical densities from option prices," Papers 1803.03996, arXiv.org.
  3. Tai‐Yong Roh & Alireza Tourani‐Rad & Yahua Xu & Yang Zhao, 2021. "Volatility‐of‐volatility risk in the crude oil market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 245-265, February.
  4. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2003. "The Finite Moment Log Stable Process and Option Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 753-777, April.
  5. Mira Farka, 2009. "The effect of monetary policy shocks on stock prices accounting for endogeneity and omitted variable biases," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 47-55, January.
  6. Turan G. Bali & Armen Hovakimian, 2009. "Volatility Spreads and Expected Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(11), pages 1797-1812, November.
  7. Yu, Xisheng & Xie, Xiaoke, 2015. "Pricing American options: RNMs-constrained entropic least-squares approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 155-173.
  8. David Mauler & James McDonald, 2015. "Option Pricing and Distribution Characteristics," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 579-595, April.
  9. Ivanova, Vesela & Puigvert Gutiérrez, Josep Maria, 2014. "Interest rate forecasts, state price densities and risk premium from Euribor options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 210-223.
  10. Y. Wang & H. Yin & L. Qi, 2004. "No-Arbitrage Interpolation of the Option Price Function and Its Reformulation," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 120(3), pages 627-649, March.
  11. Benatia, David & Carrasco, Marine & Florens, Jean-Pierre, 2017. "Functional linear regression with functional response," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 269-291.
  12. Liu, Xiaoquan & Shackleton, Mark B. & Taylor, Stephen J. & Xu, Xinzhong, 2007. "Closed-form transformations from risk-neutral to real-world distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1501-1520, May.
  13. Soini, Vesa & Lorentzen, Sindre, 2019. "Option prices and implied volatility in the crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 515-539.
  14. Sven Husmann & Andreas Stephan, 2007. "On estimating an asset's implicit beta," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(10), pages 961-979, October.
  15. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2014. "Static Hedging of Standard Options," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 3-46.
  16. Bondarenko, Oleg, 2003. "Estimation of risk-neutral densities using positive convolution approximation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 85-112.
  17. Denis Belomestny & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Ekaterina Krymova, 2017. "Sieve Estimation Of The Minimal Entropy Martingale Marginal Density With Application To Pricing Kernel Estimation," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(06), pages 1-21, September.
  18. Jung‐Soon Shin & Minki Kim & Dongjun Oh & Tong Suk Kim, 2019. "Do hedge funds time market tail risk? Evidence from option‐implied tail risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 205-237, February.
  19. Dierkes, Maik & Erner, Carsten & Zeisberger, Stefan, 2010. "Investment horizon and the attractiveness of investment strategies: A behavioral approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1032-1046, May.
  20. Colin Beardsley & John R. O'Brien, 2004. "The Effectiveness of Britain's Financial Service Authority: An Economic Analysis," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2004-11, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  21. Markose, Sheri M & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2005. "The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) Distribution, Implied Tail Index and Option Pricing," Economics Discussion Papers 3726, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  22. Anisha Ghosh & Christian Julliard & Alex P. Taylor, 2017. "What Is the Consumption-CAPM Missing? An Information-Theoretic Framework for the Analysis of Asset Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(2), pages 442-504.
  23. Chen, Ren-Raw & Hsieh, Pei-lin & Huang, Jeffrey, 2018. "Crash risk and risk neutral densities," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 162-189.
  24. Tianyang Wang & James S. Dyer, 2010. "Valuing Multifactor Real Options Using an Implied Binomial Tree," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(2), pages 185-195, June.
  25. Leiss, Matthias & Nax, Heinrich H. & Sornette, Didier, 2015. "Super-exponential growth expectations and the global financial crisis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1-13.
  26. Ke Nian & Thomas F. Coleman & Yuying Li, 2018. "Learning minimum variance discrete hedging directly from the market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(7), pages 1115-1128, July.
  27. Frank de Jong & Joost Driessen & Antoon Pelsser, 2004. "On the Information in the Interest Rate Term Structure and Option Prices," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 99-127, August.
  28. Pratish Patel & Andrew Raquel & Savannah Chadwick, 2024. "The cash-secured put-write strategy and the variance risk premium," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(1), pages 31-50, February.
  29. Giulia Di Nunno & Kk{e}stutis Kubilius & Yuliya Mishura & Anton Yurchenko-Tytarenko, 2023. "From constant to rough: A survey of continuous volatility modeling," Papers 2309.01033, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
  30. Sankar, Ganesh & Ramachandran, Shankar & Lukose P J, Jijo, 2020. "Dynamics of variance risk premium: Evidence from India," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 321-334.
  31. Shiller, Robert J., 1999. "Human behavior and the efficiency of the financial system," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 20, pages 1305-1340, Elsevier.
  32. Chung, San-Lin & Wang, Yaw-Huei, 2008. "Bounds and prices of currency cross-rate options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 631-642, May.
  33. Jensen, Christian Skov & Lando, David & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2019. "Generalized recovery," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 154-174.
  34. Santa-Clara, Pedro & Saretto, Alessio, 2009. "Option strategies: Good deals and margin calls," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 391-417, August.
  35. Stephan Eckstein & Michael Kupper, 2019. "Martingale transport with homogeneous stock movements," Papers 1908.10242, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
  36. Shane Barratt & Jonathan Tuck & Stephen Boyd, 2020. "Convex Optimization Over Risk-Neutral Probabilities," Papers 2003.02878, arXiv.org.
  37. Muendler, Marc-Andreas, 2008. "Risk-neutral investors do not acquire information," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 156-161, September.
  38. Maik Dierkes & Jan Krupski & Sebastian Schroen & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2024. "Volatility-dependent probability weighting and the dynamics of the pricing kernel puzzle," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-35, April.
  39. José P. Dapena & Juan A. Serur & Julián R. Siri, 2018. "Measuring and trading volatility on the US stock market: A regime switching approach," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 659, Universidad del CEMA.
  40. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & René Garcia & Eric Renault, 2005. "State Dependence in Fundamentals and Preferences Explains Risk-Aversion Puzzle," Staff Working Papers 05-9, Bank of Canada.
  41. Ding, Wenjie & Mazouz, Khelifa & Wang, Qingwei, 2021. "Volatility timing, sentiment, and the short-term profitability of VIX-based cross-sectional trading strategies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 42-56.
  42. Manuel Ammann & Alexander Feser, 2019. "Robust Estimation of Risk-Neutral Moments," Working Papers on Finance 1902, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  43. Thomas Busch, 2008. "Testing the martingale restriction for option implied densities," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 61-81, March.
  44. Broadie, Mark & Detemple, Jerome & Ghysels, Eric & Torres, Olivier, 2000. "Nonparametric estimation of American options' exercise boundaries and call prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(11-12), pages 1829-1857, October.
  45. Imlak Shaikh & Puja Padhi, 2013. "On the Linkages among Ex-ante and Ex-post Volatility: Evidence from NSE Options Market (India)," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 14(3), pages 487-505, September.
  46. Brendan K. Beare & Lawrence D. W. Schmidt, 2016. "An Empirical Test of Pricing Kernel Monotonicity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 338-356, March.
  47. Elyès Jouini, 2023. "Belief Dispersion and Convex Cost of Adjustment in the Stock Market and in the Real Economy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(7), pages 4190-4209, July.
  48. Kliger, Doron & Levy, Ori, 2010. "Overconfident investors and probability misjudgments," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 24-29, January.
  49. Vahamaa, Sami, 2005. "Option-implied asymmetries in bond market expectations around monetary policy actions of the ECB," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 23-38.
  50. David M. Frankel, 2008. "Adaptive Expectations And Stock Market Crashes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(2), pages 595-619, May.
  51. Lu, Junwen & Qu, Zhongjun, 2021. "Sieve estimation of option-implied state price density," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 88-112.
  52. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2003. "Option prices under Bayesian learning: implied volatility dynamics and predictive densities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 717-769, March.
  53. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Duarte, Jefferson, 2003. "Nonparametric option pricing under shape restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 9-47.
  54. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Myšičková, Alena, 2008. "Numerics of implied binomial trees," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-044, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  55. João Amaro de Matos & Nuno Silva, 2012. "Consuming durable goods when stock markets jump: a strategic asset allocation approach," GEMF Working Papers 2012-01, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
  56. Jens Hilscher & Alon Raviv & Ricardo Reis, 2022. "Inflating Away the Public Debt? An Empirical Assessment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 1553-1595.
  57. René Garcia & Richard Luger & Éric Renault, 2005. "Viewpoint: Option prices, preferences, and state variables," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(1), pages 1-27, February.
  58. Constantinides, George M. & Perrakis, Stylianos, 2002. "Stochastic dominance bounds on derivatives prices in a multiperiod economy with proportional transaction costs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1323-1352, July.
  59. Zghal, Imen & Ben Hamad, Salah & Eleuch, Hichem & Nobanee, Haitham, 2020. "The effect of market sentiment and information asymmetry on option pricing," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  60. Kaeck, Andreas & Seeger, Norman J., 2020. "VIX derivatives, hedging and vol-of-vol risk," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 283(2), pages 767-782.
  61. Carole Bernard & Oleg Bondarenko & Steven Vanduffel, 2018. "Rearrangement algorithm and maximum entropy," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 261(1), pages 107-134, February.
  62. Gianluca Cassese, 2014. "Option Pricing in an Imperfect World," Papers 1406.0412, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2016.
  63. Chang, Eric C. & Ren, Jinjuan & Shi, Qi, 2009. "Effects of the volatility smile on exchange settlement practices: The Hong Kong case," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 98-112, January.
  64. Axel A. Araneda & Marcelo J. Villena, 2018. "Computing the CEV option pricing formula using the semiclassical approximation of path integral," Papers 1803.10376, arXiv.org.
  65. Refet Gürkaynak & Justin Wolfers, 2005. "Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 11-50, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  66. Elyas Elyasiani & Luca Gambarelli & Silvia Muzzioli, 2015. "Towards a skewness index for the Italian stock market," Department of Economics 0064, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
  67. Hui Guo & Christopher J. Neely & Jason Higbee, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Volatility Is Priced in Equities," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 37(4), pages 769-790, December.
  68. Ben R. Craig & Ernst Glatzer & Joachim G. Keller & Martin Scheicher, 2003. "The forecasting performance of German stock option densities," Working Papers (Old Series) 0312, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  69. Ren-Raw Chen & Oded Palmon, 2005. "A Non-Parametric Option Pricing Model: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 115-134, January.
  70. Ghosh, Anisha & Julliard, Christian & Taylor, Alex, 2016. "An information based one-factor asset pricing model," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118978, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  71. Brendan K. Beare, 2023. "Optimal measure preserving derivatives revisited," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 370-388, April.
  72. Pedro Serrano & Antoni Vaello‐Sebastià & M. Magdalena Vich Llompart, 2024. "International evidence of the forecasting ability of option‐implied distributions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1447-1464, August.
  73. Hélène Hamisultane, 2006. "Pricing the Weather Derivatives in the Presence of Long Memory in Temperatures," Working Papers halshs-00079197, HAL.
  74. Kliger, Doron & Levy, Ori, 2009. "Theories of choice under risk: Insights from financial markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 330-346, August.
  75. Coutant, Sophie & Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2001. "Reading PIBOR futures options smiles: The 1997 snap election," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 1957-1987, November.
  76. George M. Constantinides & Michal Czerwonko & Jens Carsten Jackwerth & Stylianos Perrakis, 2011. "Are Options on Index Futures Profitable for Risk‐Averse Investors? Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1407-1437, August.
  77. Renato Faccini & Eirini Konstantinidi & George Skiadopoulos & Sylvia Sarantopoulou-Chiourea, 2019. "A New Predictor of U.S. Real Economic Activity: The S&P 500 Option Implied Risk Aversion," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(10), pages 4927-4949, October.
  78. Gabriele Fiorentini & Angel León & Gonzalo Rubio, "undated". "Short-term options with stochastic volatility: Estimation and empirical performance," Studies on the Spanish Economy 02, FEDEA.
  79. Jingzhi Huang & Liuren Wu, 2004. "Specification Analysis of Option Pricing Models Based on Time- Changed Levy Processes," Finance 0401002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  80. Roy H. Kwon & Jonathan Y. Li, 2016. "A stochastic semidefinite programming approach for bounds on option pricing under regime switching," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 237(1), pages 41-75, February.
  81. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2010. "Unbiased Disagreement in Financial Markets, Waves of Pessimism and the Risk-Return Trade-off," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(3), pages 575-601.
  82. Imlak Shaikh & Puja Padhi, 2015. "On the Relationship of Ex-ante and Ex-post Volatility: A Sub-period Analysis of S&P CNX Nifty Index Options," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 14(2), pages 140-175, August.
  83. Noshaba Zulfiqar & Saqib Gulzar, 2021. "Implied volatility estimation of bitcoin options and the stylized facts of option pricing," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-30, December.
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  89. Gianluca Cassese, 2019. "Nonparametric Estimates Of Option Prices And Related Quantities," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(07), pages 1-29, November.
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  91. Christoffersen, Peter & Fournier, Mathieu & Jacobs, Kris & Karoui, Mehdi, 2021. "Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Coskewness and Cokurtosis Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 65-91, February.
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  93. Leiss, Matthias & Nax, Heinrich H. & Sornette, Didier, 2015. "Super-exponential growth expectations and the global financial crisis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65434, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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  96. Marco Avellaneda, 1998. "Minimum-Relative-Entropy Calibration of Asset-Pricing Models," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(04), pages 447-472.
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  98. Borochin, Paul & Golec, Joseph, 2016. "Using options to measure the full value-effect of an event: Application to Obamacare," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 169-193.
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  121. Du Du & Dan Luo, 2019. "The Pricing of Jump Propagation: Evidence from Spot and Options Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(5), pages 2360-2387, May.
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  126. Tong Suk Kim & Heewoo Park, 2018. "Is stock return predictability of option‐implied skewness affected by the market state?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(9), pages 1024-1042, September.
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  132. Elyas Elyasiani & Luca Gambarelli & Silvia Muzzioli, 2016. "Fear or greed? What does a skewness index measure?," Department of Economics 0102, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
  133. Lee, Min-Ku & Yang, Sung-Jin & Kim, Jeong-Hoon, 2016. "A closed form solution for vulnerable options with Heston’s stochastic volatility," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 23-27.
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