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Crash Beliefs From Investor Surveys

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  • William N. Goetzmann
  • Dasol Kim
  • Robert J. Shiller

Abstract

Historical data suggest that the base rate for a severe, single-day stock market crash is relatively low. Surveys of individual and institutional investors, conducted regularly over a 26-year period in the United States, show that they assess the probability to be much higher. We examine factors influencing investor responses and test the role of media influence, finding evidence consistent with an availability bias. Adverse market events made salient by financial press are associated with higher subjective crash probabilities. Exogenous shocks related to earthquakes are also associated with higher probabilities. Finally, subjective crash probabilities are negatively associated with mutual fund flows.

Suggested Citation

  • William N. Goetzmann & Dasol Kim & Robert J. Shiller, 2016. "Crash Beliefs From Investor Surveys," NBER Working Papers 22143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22143
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    2. Lleo, Sebastien & Ziemba, William, 2017. "A tale of two indexes: predicting equity market downturns in China," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118952, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    4. Nagel, Stefan & Xu, Zhengyang, 2023. "Dynamics of subjective risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
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    6. Guo, Yongzhen & Wang, Yinghuan, 2024. "It is a small world: The effect of analyst-media school ties on analyst performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    7. Lleo, Sebastien & Zhitlukhin, Mikhail & Ziemba, William, 2021. "Using a mean changing stochastic processes exit-entry model for stock market long-short prediction," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118875, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Payzan-LeNestour, Elise & Pradier, Lionnel & Putniņš, Tālis J., 2023. "Biased risk perceptions: Evidence from the laboratory and financial markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    9. Consoli, Sergio & Pezzoli, Luca Tiozzo & Tosetti, Elisa, 2021. "Emotions in macroeconomic news and their impact on the European bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    10. Bosman, Ronald & Kräussl, Roman & Mirgorodskaya, Elizaveta, 2017. "Modifier words in the financial press and investor expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 85-98.
    11. James J. Choi & Adriana Z. Robertson, 2020. "What Matters to Individual Investors? Evidence from the Horse's Mouth," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(4), pages 1965-2020, August.
    12. Robert J. Shiller, 2017. "Narrative Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 967-1004, April.
    13. Bertsch, Christoph & Hull, Isaiah & Zhang, Xin, 2021. "Narrative fragmentation and the business cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    14. Call, Andrew C. & Emett, Scott A. & Maksymov, Eldar & Sharp, Nathan Y., 2022. "Meet the press: Survey evidence on financial journalists as information intermediaries," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2).
    15. Sarah Asebedo & Patrick Payne, 2019. "Market Volatility and Financial Satisfaction: The Role of Financial Self-Efficacy," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 42-52, January.
    16. Ren, Tingting & Li, Shaofang & Zhang, Siying, 2024. "Stock market extreme risk prediction based on machine learning: Evidence from the American market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    17. Caglayan, Mustafa O. & Lawrence, Edward & Reyes-Peña, Robinson, 2023. "Hot potatoes: Underpricing of stocks following extreme negative returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    18. Steven D. Baker & Burton Hollifield & Emilio Osambela, 2018. "Preventing Controversial Catastrophes," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-052, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Bu, Di & Hanspal, Tobin & Liao, Yin & Liu, Yong, 2021. "Risk taking, preferences, and beliefs: Evidence from Wuhan," SAFE Working Paper Series 301, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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