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What is the Consumption-CAPM missing? An information-theoretic framework for the analysis of asset pricing models

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  • Ghosh, Anisha
  • Julliard, Christian
  • Taylor, Alex. P

Abstract

We consider asset pricing models in which the SDF can be factorized into an observable component and a potentially unobservable one. Using a relative entropy minimization approach, we nonparametrically estimate the SDF and its components. Empirically, we find the SDF has a business-cycle pattern and significant correlations with market crashes and the Fama-French factors. Moreover, we derive novel bounds for the SDF that are tighter and have higher information content than existing ones. We show that commonly used consumption-based SDFs correlate poorly with the estimated one, require high risk aversion to satisfy the bounds and understate market crash risk.

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  • Ghosh, Anisha & Julliard, Christian & Taylor, Alex. P, 2017. "What is the Consumption-CAPM missing? An information-theoretic framework for the analysis of asset pricing models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65131, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:65131
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    3. Taisuke Otsu & Chen Qiu, 2018. "Information theoretic approach to high dimensional multiplicative models: Stochastic discount factor and treatment effect," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 595, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    4. Steven Heston & Kris Jacobs & Hyung Joo Kim, 2023. "The Pricing Kernel in Options," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-053, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    6. Liu, Yan, 2021. "Index option returns and generalized entropy bounds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 1015-1036.
    7. Xiaozhen Jing & Dezhong Xu & Bin Li & Tarlok Singh, 2024. "Does the U.S. extreme indicator matter in stock markets? International evidence," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-27, December.
    8. A. Ronald Gallant & George Tauchen, 2021. "Cash Flows Discounted Using a Model-Free SDF Extracted under a Yield Curve Prior," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-15, March.
    9. Pietro Murialdo & Linda Ponta & Anna Carbone, 2020. "Long-Range Dependence in Financial Markets: a Moving Average Cluster Entropy Approach," Papers 2004.14736, arXiv.org.
    10. Thierry Post & Iňaki Rodríguez Longarela, 2021. "Risk Arbitrage Opportunities for Stock Index Options," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 100-113, January.
    11. Francesco Bravo, 2022. "Misspecified semiparametric model selection with weakly dependent observations," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 558-586, July.
    12. Nikolay Gospodinov & Esfandiar Maasoumi, 2017. "General Aggregation of Misspecified Asset Pricing Models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2017-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    13. Weidong Tian, 2021. "Long Run Law and Entropy," Papers 2111.06238, arXiv.org.
    14. Qiu, Chen & Otsu, Taisuke, 2022. "Information theoretic approach to high dimensional multiplicative models: stochastic discount factor and treatment effect," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110494, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Abad, David & Nieto, Belén & Pascual, Roberto & Rubio, Gonzalo, 2023. "Market-wide illiquidity and the distribution of non-parametric stochastic discount factors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    16. Chen, Qi-An & Li, Huashi & Lin, Jianyi & Yan, Youliang, 2023. "Asset pricing with two types of heterogeneous consumption volatilities in mind: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    17. Rojo Suárez, Javier & Alonso Conde, Ana Belén & Ferrero Pozo, Ricardo, 2020. "European equity markets: Who is the truly representative investor?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 325-346.
    18. Amit K. Sinha, 2021. "The reliability of geometric Brownian motion forecasts of S&P500 index values," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1444-1462, December.
    19. González-Sánchez, Mariano, 2022. "Asset pricing models in emerging markets: Factorial approaches vs. information stochastic discount factor," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    20. Chen Qiu & Taisuke Otsu, 2022. "Information theoretic approach to high‐dimensional multiplicative models: Stochastic discount factor and treatment effect," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(1), pages 63-94, January.
    21. Post, Thierry & Karabatı, Selçuk & Arvanitis, Stelios, 2018. "Portfolio optimization based on stochastic dominance and empirical likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 206(1), pages 167-186.
    22. Ponta, Linda & Murialdo, Pietro & Carbone, Anna, 2021. "Information measure for long-range correlated time series: Quantifying horizon dependence in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 570(C).
    23. Lars Peter Hansen, 2017. "Comment on "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Economic Expectations: Progress and Promise"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32, pages 479-489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Maasoumi, Esfandiar, 2021. "Generalized aggregation of misspecified models: With an application to asset pricing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 451-467.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pricing kernel; stochastic discount factor; consumptionbased asset pricing; entropy bounds;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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