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Unbiased Disagreement in Financial Markets, Waves of Pessimism and the Risk-Return Trade-off

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  • Elyès Jouini
  • Clotilde Napp

Abstract

Can investors with irrational beliefs be neglected as long as they are rational on average? Do their trades cancel out with no consequences on prices, as implicitly assumed by traditional models? We consider a model with irrational investors, who are rational on average. We obtain waves of pessimism and optimism that lead to countercyclical market prices of risk and procyclical risk-free rates. The variance of the state price density is greatly increased. The long run risk-return relation is modified; in particular, the long run market price of risk might be higher than both the instantaneous and the rational ones. Copyright 2010, Oxford University Press.

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  • Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2010. "Unbiased Disagreement in Financial Markets, Waves of Pessimism and the Risk-Return Trade-off," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(3), pages 575-601.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:15:y:2010:i:3:p:575-601
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    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/2319 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Giulio Bottazzi & Pietro Dindo & Daniele Giachini, 2018. "Long-run heterogeneity in an exchange economy with fixed-mix traders," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 66(2), pages 407-447, August.
    5. Chi-Wei Su & Xu-Yu Cai & Ran Tao, 2020. "Can Stock Investor Sentiment Be Contagious in China?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Xue-Zhong He & Lei Shi, 2012. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and the Performances of Optimal Portfolios," Research Paper Series 301, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    7. Xue-Zhong He & Lei Shi & Min Zheng, 2012. "Asset Pricing Under Keeping Up With the Joneses and Heterogeneous Beliefs," Research Paper Series 302, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    8. He, Xue-Zhong & Shi, Lei, 2012. "Disagreement, correlation and asset prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 512-515.
    9. Hongjun Yan, 2010. "Is Noise Trading Cancelled Out by Aggregation?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(7), pages 1047-1059, July.
    10. Xue-Zhong He & Lei Shi, 2012. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," Research Paper Series 303, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    11. Hongjun Yan, 2010. "Is Noise Trading Cancelled Out by Aggregation?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(7), pages 1047-1059, July.
    12. Massari, Filippo, 2017. "Markets with heterogeneous beliefs: A necessary and sufficient condition for a trader to vanish," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 190-205.

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