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Impact of Divergent Consumer Confidence on Option Prices

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  • James Huang

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of divergent consumer confidence on option prices. To model this, we assume that consumers disagree on the expected growth rate of aggregate consumption. With other conditions unchanged in the discrete-time Black–Scholes option-pricing model, we show that the representative consumer will have declining relative risk aversion instead of the assumed constant relative risk aversion. In this case all options will be underpriced by the Black–Scholes model under the assumption of bivariate lognormality. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003

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  • James Huang, 2003. "Impact of Divergent Consumer Confidence on Option Prices," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 165-177, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:revdev:v:6:y:2003:i:3:p:165-177
    DOI: 10.1023/B:REDR.0000004822.47039.bc
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Franke, Günter & Stapleton, Richard C. & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 1999. "When are Options Overpriced? The Black-Scholes Model and Alternative Characterisations of the Pricing Kernel," CoFE Discussion Papers 99/01, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    10. Günter Franke & Richard C. Stapleton & Marti G. Subrahmanyam, 1999. "When are Options Overpriced? The Black—Scholes Model and Alternative Characterisations of the Pricing Kernel," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 3(1), pages 79-102.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hara, Chiaki & Huang, James & Kuzmics, Christoph, 2007. "Representative consumer's risk aversion and efficient risk-sharing rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 652-672, November.

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