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The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?

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Cited by:

  1. Sylvain Leduc & Kevin Moran & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2023. "Learning in the Oil Futures Markets: Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 392-407, March.
  2. Kyritsis, Evangelos & Serletis, Apostolos, 2018. "The zero lower bound and market spillovers: Evidence from the G7 and Norway," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 100-123.
  3. Nida Çakır Melek & Troy Davig & Jun Nie & Andrew Lee Smith & Didem Tuzemen, 2015. "Evaluating a year of oil price volatility," Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-3, September.
  4. Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda & Premachandra, I.M., 2016. "Information spillover dynamics of the energy futures market sector: A novel common factor approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 277-294.
  5. Morana, Claudio, 2013. "Oil price dynamics, macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 206-226.
  6. Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre & Kilian, Lutz, 2015. "Do high-frequency financial data help forecast oil prices? The MIDAS touch at work," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 238-252.
  7. Yoosoon Chang & Ana María Herrera & Elena Pesavento, 2023. "Oil prices uncertainty, endogenous regime switching, and inflation anchoring," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 820-839, September.
  8. Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K., 2014. "Quantifying the speculative component in the real price of oil: The role of global oil inventories," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 71-87.
  9. Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Ana-Maria Fuertes & Joëlle Miffre, 2023. "The Negative Pricing of the May 2020 WTI Contract," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(1), pages 119-142, January.
  10. Jana Drutarovská, 2012. "Vplyv špekulácií na vývoj cien ropy," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 192-201.
  11. Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Financialization of Commodity Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 419-441, December.
  12. Veronika Fodorová, 2012. "Tradičné teórie medzinárodných vzťahov ako východisko pre rozvoj teórií európskej integrácie," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 170-181.
  13. Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Xin Sheng, 2020. "Time-Varying Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Oil Prices," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 692-706, August.
  14. Joëts, Marc, 2015. "Heterogeneous beliefs, regret, and uncertainty: The role of speculation in energy price dynamics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 247(1), pages 204-215.
  15. Abid, Ilyes & Goutte, Stéphane & Guesmi, Khaled & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2019. "Transmission of shocks and contagion from U.S. to MENA equity markets: The role of oil and gas markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  16. Simona Delle Chiaie & Laurent Ferrara & Domenico Giannone, 2022. "Common factors of commodity prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 461-476, April.
  17. Thi Hong Van Hoang, Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, Robert L. Czudaj, and Javed Ahmad Bhat, 2019. "How Do Oil Shocks Impact Energy Consumption? A Disaggregated Analysis for the U.S," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(The New E).
  18. D'Ecclesia, Rita L. & Magrini, Emiliano & Montalbano, Pierluigi & Triulzi, Umberto, 2014. "Understanding recent oil price dynamics: A novel empirical approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 11-17.
  19. Michael Hachula & Malte Rieth, 2017. "Identifying Speculative Demand Shocks in Commodity Futures Markets through Changes in Volatility," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1646, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  20. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L. & Stefan, Martin & Wellenreuther, Claudia, 2020. "Price discovery in agricultural commodity markets: Do speculators contribute?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
  21. Deren Unalmis & Ibrahim Unalmis & Derya Filiz Unsal, 2012. "On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks : The Role of Storage," Working Papers 1230, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  22. Fishe, Raymond P.H. & Smith, Aaron, 2019. "Do speculators drive commodity prices away from supply and demand fundamentals?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 1-1.
  23. V.V. Chari & Lawrence Christiano, 2017. "Financialization in Commodity Markets," NBER Working Papers 23766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Bonato, Matteo & Gupta, Rangan & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Wang, Shixuan, 2020. "Moments-based spillovers across gold and oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
  25. Giulio Cifarelli & Paolo Paesani, 2021. "Navigating the Oil Bubble: A Non-linear Heterogeneous-agent Dynamic Model of Futures Oil Pricing," The Energy Journal, , vol. 42(5), pages 101-122, September.
  26. Valenti, Daniele & Manera, Matteo & Sbuelz, Alessandro, 2020. "Interpreting the oil risk premium: Do oil price shocks matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  27. Lopez-Martin, Bernabe & Leal, Julio & Martinez Fritscher, Andre, 2019. "Commodity price risk management and fiscal policy in a sovereign default model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 304-323.
  28. Baumann, Robert & Engelhardt, Bryan & Fuller, David L., 2018. "Monopoly power with a short selling constraint," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 8-13.
  29. Semeyutin, Artur & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Xu, Bing, 2021. "Effects of idiosyncratic jumps and co-jumps on oil, gold, and copper markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
  30. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2022. "Oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  31. Fretheim, Torun, 2019. "An empirical analysis of the correlation between large daily changes in grain and oil futures prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 66-75.
  32. Saleh Mothana Obadi & Matej Korecek, 2018. "The Crude Oil Price and Speculations: Investigation Using Granger Causality Test," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 275-282.
  33. Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie & Razafindrabe, Tovonony, 2017. "Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 313-326.
  34. Lovcha, Yuliya & Perez-Laborda, Alejandro, 2020. "Dynamic frequency connectedness between oil and natural gas volatilities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 181-189.
  35. Zhige Wu & Alex Maynard & Alfons Weersink & Getu Hailu, 2018. "Asymmetric spot‐futures price adjustments in grain markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(12), pages 1549-1564, December.
  36. Itay Goldstein & Liyan Yang, 2022. "Commodity Financialization and Information Transmission," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(5), pages 2613-2667, October.
  37. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Wu, Chongfeng, 2017. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil using forecast combinations over time-varying parameter models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 337-348.
  38. Jorge Toro & Aarón Garavito & David Camilo López & Enrique Montes, 2015. "El choque petrolero y sus implicaciones en la economía colombiana," Borradores de Economia 13829, Banco de la Republica.
  39. Noori, Mohammad, 2024. "Stock-oil comovements through fear, uncertainty, and expectations: Evidence from conditional comoments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 529-551.
  40. Bahattin Büyük şahin & Thomas K. Lee & James T. Moser & Michel A. Robe, 2013. "Physical Markets, Paper Markets and the WTI-Brent Spread," The Energy Journal, , vol. 34(3), pages 129-152, July.
  41. Mayer, Herbert & Rathgeber, Andreas & Wanner, Markus, 2017. "Financialization of metal markets: Does futures trading influence spot prices and volatility?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 300-316.
  42. Lombardi, Marco J. & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "On the correlation between commodity and equity returns: Implications for portfolio allocation," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 45-57.
  43. Hong, Yanran & Yu, Jize & Su, Yuquan & Wang, Lu, 2023. "Southern oscillation: Great value of its trends for forecasting crude oil spot price volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 358-368.
  44. Kilian, Lutz & Baumeister, Christiane, 2014. "A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices With an Application to Crude Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 10162, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  45. Jozef Baruník and Ev~en Kocenda, 2019. "Total, Asymmetric and Frequency Connectedness between Oil and Forex Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
  46. Martin, William J., 2012. "Managing High and Volatile Food Prices," Trade Issues Papers 142732, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
  47. Gogolin, Fabian & Kearney, Fearghal, 2016. "Does speculation impact what factors determine oil futures prices?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 119-122.
  48. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Do oil price increases cause higher food prices? [Biofuels, binding constraints, and agricultural commodity price volatility]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 691-747.
  49. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Diao, Xundi & Wu, Chongfeng, 2015. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil under economic and statistical constraints," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 599-608.
  50. Baruník, Jozef & Malinská, Barbora, 2016. "Forecasting the term structure of crude oil futures prices with neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 366-379.
  51. Bierbaumer, Daniel & Rieth, Malte & Velinov, Anton, 2021. "The state-dependent trading behavior of banks in the oil futures market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 1011-1024.
  52. Walid Mensi & Salem Adel Ziadat & Xuan Vinh Vo & Sang Hoon Kang, 2024. "Spillovers and Portfolio Management Between the Uncertainty Indices of Oil and Gold and G7 Stock Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(4), pages 2233-2262, October.
  53. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2021. "Modeling ex-ante risk premia in the oil market," Working Papers hal-03508699, HAL.
  54. Zunxin Zheng & Gaiyan Zhang & Yingzhao Ni, 2024. "Financial regulatory arbitrage and the financialization of commodities," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(5), pages 826-853, May.
  55. Charoula Daskalaki, 2021. "New evidence on commodity stocks," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 811-874, June.
  56. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2017. "Oil currencies in the face of oil shocks: what can be learned from time-varying specifications?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(18), pages 1774-1793, April.
  57. Tumen, Semih & Unalmis, Deren & Unalmis, Ibrahim & Unsal, D. Filiz, 2016. "Taxing fossil fuels under speculative storage," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 64-75.
  58. Pies, Ingo, 2015. "Kommentar zur Spekulation mit Agrarrohstoffen: Eine Replik auf Christian Conrad," Discussion Papers 2015-11, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Chair of Economic Ethics.
  59. Jamie L. Cross & Bao H. Nguyen & Trung Duc Tran, 2022. "The role of precautionary and speculative demand in the global market for crude oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 882-895, August.
  60. Birge, John R. & Hortaçsu, Ali & Mercadal, Ignacia & Pavlin, J. Michael, 2018. "Limits to arbitrage in electricity markets: A case study of MISO," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 518-533.
  61. Giulio Cifarelli and Paolo Paesani, 2021. "Navigating the Oil Bubble: A Non-linear Heterogeneous-agent Dynamic Model of Futures Oil Pricing," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
  62. Bilgin, Doga & Ellwanger, Reinhard, 2024. "A simple model of global fuel consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
  63. Evrim Mandacı, Pınar & Cagli, Efe Çaglar & Taşkın, Dilvin, 2020. "Dynamic connectedness and portfolio strategies: Energy and metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  64. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 139-160, Winter.
  65. Derek Bunn, Julien Chevallier, Yannick Le Pen, and Benoit Sevi, 2017. "Fundamental and Financial Influences on the Co-movement of Oil and Gas Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
  66. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2015. "Exchange volatility and export performance in Egypt: New insights from wavelet decomposition and optimal GARCH model," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 201-227, March.
  67. Akdoğan, Kurmaş, 2020. "Fundamentals versus speculation in oil market: The role of asymmetries in price adjustment?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  68. Leila Dagher & Ibrahim Jamali & Nasser Badra, 2020. "The Predictive Power of Oil and Commodity Prices for Equity Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Stéphane Goutte & Khaled Guesmi (ed.), Risk Factors and Contagion in Commodity Markets and Stocks Markets, chapter 3, pages 47-82, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  69. Jarrett, Uchechukwu & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Mohtadi, Hamid, 2019. "Oil price volatility, financial institutions and economic growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 131-144.
  70. Ludwig, Michael, 2019. "Speculation and its impact on liquidity in commodity markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 532-547.
  71. Delphine Lautier & Julien Ling & Franck Raynaud, 2015. "Integration of commodity derivative markets: Has it gone too far?," Post-Print hal-01653757, HAL.
  72. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2020. "Forecasting realized oil-price volatility: The role of financial stress and asymmetric loss," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
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  74. Ames, Matthew & Bagnarosa, Guillaume & Matsui, Tomoko & Peters, Gareth W. & Shevchenko, Pavel V., 2020. "Which risk factors drive oil futures price curves?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
  75. Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2013. "Futures trading and the excess comovement of commodity prices," Post-Print hal-01613916, HAL.
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  125. Asai, Manabu & Gupta, Rangan & McAleer, Michael, 2020. "Forecasting volatility and co-volatility of crude oil and gold futures: Effects of leverage, jumps, spillovers, and geopolitical risks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 933-948.
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