IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jfutmk/v44y2024i4p631-652.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The convenience yield under commodity financialization

Author

Listed:
  • Nikolaos T. Milonas
  • Evangelia K. Photina

Abstract

A number of papers have dealt with commodity financialization finding strong evidence for its existence and its effect on commodity prices and volatility. We chose convenience yield (CY) to study the effect of commodity financialization based on the theory of storage and on the argument that CY resembles a call option. Using quarterly data in the period 1995–2018, on soybeans stocks, cash and futures prices, a dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lag with Exogenous model is estimated to measure the effects of independent variables from both the financial and commodity markets on CY. The evidence reveals that financial markets volatility along macroeconomic global variables affect soybeans CY giving support to the existence of commodity financialization. Besides, we find a statistically significant and negative relation between volatility index and CY. Support for this evidence rests on the theory of storage, Real Option Analysis, and behavioral finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaos T. Milonas & Evangelia K. Photina, 2024. "The convenience yield under commodity financialization," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 631-652, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:44:y:2024:i:4:p:631-652
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22485
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22485
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/fut.22485?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Conghui Hu & Wei Xiong, 2013. "Are Commodity Futures Prices Barometers of the Global Economy?," NBER Working Papers 19706, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    3. Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Financialization of Commodity Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 419-441, December.
    4. Nikolaos Milonas & Nikolaos Paratsiokas, 2017. "Convenience Yields in Electricity Prices: Evidence from the Natural Gas Market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 522-538, May.
    5. Bassam Fattouh, Lutz Kilian, and Lavan Mahadeva, 2013. "The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    6. Yoon, Byung-Sam & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2002. "Market Inversion in Commodity Futures Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 459-476, December.
    7. Hyunseok Kim & GianCarlo Moschini, 2018. "The Dynamics of Supply: U.S. Corn and Soybeans in the Biofuel Era," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 94(4), pages 593-613.
    8. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    9. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. "The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
    10. Ing-Haw Cheng & Andrei Kirilenko & Wei Xiong, 2015. "Convective Risk Flows in Commodity Futures Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(5), pages 1733-1781.
    11. Nathan P. Hendricks & Aaron Smith & Daniel A. Sumner, 2014. "Crop Supply Dynamics and the Illusion of Partial Adjustment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1469-1491.
    12. Irwin, Scott & Good, Darrel, 2015. "The Relationship between Stocks-to-Use and Soybean Prices Revisited," farmdoc daily, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, vol. 5, May.
    13. Douglas, Stratford & Popova, Julia, 2008. "Storage and the electricity forward premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1712-1727, July.
    14. Suleyman Basak & Anna Pavlova, 2016. "A Model of Financialization of Commodities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(4), pages 1511-1556, August.
    15. Edward F. Blackburne III & Mark W. Frank, 2007. "Estimation of nonstationary heterogeneous panels," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 7(2), pages 197-208, June.
    16. Lombardi, Marco J. & Van Robays, Ine, 2011. "Do financial investors destabilize the oil price?," Working Paper Series 1346, European Central Bank.
    17. Nikolaos T. Milonas & Stavros B. Thomadakis, 1997. "Convenience yields as call options: An empirical analysis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 1-15, February.
    18. Richard Heaney, 2002. "Approximation for convenience yield in commodity futures pricing," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(10), pages 1005-1017, October.
    19. Nicholas Kaldor, 1939. "Speculation and Economic Stability," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27.
    20. Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Why Do Hedgers Trade So Much?," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(S2), pages 183-207.
    21. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R. & Merrin, Robert P., 2009. "Devil or Angel? The Role of Speculation in the Recent Commodity Price Boom (and Bust)," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 377-391, August.
    22. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014. "The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, April.
    23. Acharya, Viral V. & Lochstoer, Lars A. & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2013. "Limits to arbitrage and hedging: Evidence from commodity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 441-465.
    24. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2014. "Risk premia in crude oil futures prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 9-37.
    25. Nikolaos Milonas & Thomas Henker, 2001. "Price spread and convenience yield behaviour in the international oil market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 23-36.
    26. Brian J. Henderson & Neil D. Pearson & Li Wang, 2015. "Editor's Choice New Evidence on the Financialization of Commodity Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(5), pages 1285-1311.
    27. repec:dau:papers:123456789/2274 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Michael Sockin & Wei Xiong, 2015. "Informational Frictions and Commodity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 2063-2098, October.
    29. Wenjin Kang & K. Geert Rouwenhorst & Ke Tang, 2020. "A Tale of Two Premiums: The Role of Hedgers and Speculators in Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(1), pages 377-417, February.
    30. Gibson, Rajna & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. "Stochastic Convenience Yield and the Pricing of Oil Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 959-976, July.
    31. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2012. "Testing the Masters Hypothesis in commodity futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 256-269.
    32. Engelbert J. Dockner & Zehra Eksi & Margarethe Rammerstorfer, 2015. "A Convenience Yield Approximation Model for Mean‐Reverting Commodities," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 625-654, July.
    33. Moses M. Kupabado & Juergen Kaehler, 2021. "Financialization, common stochastic trends, and commodity prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(12), pages 1988-2008, December.
    34. Gruber, Joseph W. & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2018. "Interest Rates And The Volatility And Correlation Of Commodity Prices," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 600-619, April.
    35. Marta Szymanowska & Frans Roon & Theo Nijman & Rob Goorbergh, 2014. "An Anatomy of Commodity Futures Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(1), pages 453-482, February.
    36. Jian Yang & Zheng Li & Hong Miao, 2021. "Volatility spillovers in commodity futures markets: A network approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(12), pages 1959-1987, December.
    37. Robert Heinkel & Maureen E. Howe & John S. Hughes, 1990. "Commodity convenience yields as an option profit," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(5), pages 519-533, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Financialization of Commodity Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 419-441, December.
    2. Boyd, Naomi E. & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Li, Bingxin, 2018. "An update on speculation and financialization in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 91-104.
    3. Ames, Matthew & Bagnarosa, Guillaume & Matsui, Tomoko & Peters, Gareth W. & Shevchenko, Pavel V., 2020. "Which risk factors drive oil futures price curves?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    4. Filippo Natoli, 2021. "Financialization Of Commodities Before And After The Great Financial Crisis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 488-511, April.
    5. Yan, Lei & Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2018. "Mapping algorithms, agricultural futures, and the relationship between commodity investment flows and crude oil futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 486-504.
    6. Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel & McCrorie, J. Roderick & Paraskevopoulos, Ioannis, 2020. "Mild explosivity in recent crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    7. Gao, Xin & Li, Bingxin & Liu, Rui, 2023. "The relative pricing of WTI and Brent crude oil futures: Expectations or risk premia?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    8. Itay Goldstein & Liyan Yang, 2022. "Commodity Financialization and Information Transmission," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(5), pages 2613-2667, October.
    9. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    10. Bonnier, Jean-Baptiste, 2021. "Speculation and informational efficiency in commodity futures markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    11. Filippo Natoli, 2018. "Analyzing the structural transformation of commodity markets: financialization revisited," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 419, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Wen, Xiaoqian & Xie, Yuxin & Pantelous, Athanasios A., 2022. "Extreme price co-movement of commodity futures and industrial production growth: An empirical evaluation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    13. Michael Hachula & Malte Rieth, 2017. "Identifying Speculative Demand Shocks in Commodity Futures Markets through Changes in Volatility," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1646, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    14. Yao, Wei & Alexiou, Constantinos, 2024. "On the transmission mechanism between the inventory arbitrage activity, speculative activity and the commodity price under the US QE policy: Evidence from a TVP-VAR model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1054-1072.
    15. Jean-Baptiste Bonnier, 2021. "Speculation and informational efficiency in commodity futures markets," Post-Print hal-04299220, HAL.
    16. Bierbaumer, Daniel & Rieth, Malte & Velinov, Anton, 2021. "The state-dependent trading behavior of banks in the oil futures market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 1011-1024.
    17. Xiao, Qin & Yan, Meilan & Zhang, Dalu, 2023. "Commodity market financialization, herding and signals: An asymmetric GARCH R-vine copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    18. Smimou, K. & Bosch, D. & Filbeck, G., 2024. "Commodities and Policy Uncertainty Channel(s)," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 351-379.
    19. Mohammad Isleimeyyeh, 2020. "The role of financial investors in determining the commodity futures risk premium," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(9), pages 1375-1397, September.
    20. Awan, Obaid A., 2019. "Price discovery or noise: The role of arbitrage and speculation in explaining crude oil price behaviour," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:44:y:2024:i:4:p:631-652. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-7314/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.