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Inflation, Business Cycles, and Commodity Investing in Financialized Markets

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  • Zaremba, Adam

    (Poznań University of Economics)

Abstract

Financialization of commodity markets has been a broadly discussed topic in recent years. However, its implications for commodity investors have not yet been fully explored. This paper concentrates on the macroeconomic determinants of commodity returns in financialized and non-financialized markets and on their role for a tactical asset allocation. The study aims to contribute to the academic literature in four ways. First, it provides fresh evidence on the interdependences between commodity returns, inflation and the business activity. Second, it documents increased correlation of the commodity returns with the business activity in the financialized markets. Third, it explores changes in the lead/lag relationship of commodity prices and the business cycle. Fourth, it proves that the commodities retained their inflation hedging abilities in the financialized markets. The computations are based on listings of various commodity indices, which are calculated by S&P-GSCI, JP Morgan, and Dow Jones-UBS, between 1970 and 2013.

Suggested Citation

  • Zaremba, Adam, 2015. "Inflation, Business Cycles, and Commodity Investing in Financialized Markets," Business and Economics Research Journal, Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:buecrj:0173
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Małgorzata Just & Aleksandra Łuczak, 2020. "Assessment of Conditional Dependence Structures in Commodity Futures Markets Using Copula-GARCH Models and Fuzzy Clustering Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-22, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodities; inflation hedging; macroeconomic determinants; business cycle; financialization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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