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The role of trading volume, open interest and trader positions on volatility transmission between spot and futures markets

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  • Ordu-Akkaya, Beyza Mina
  • Ugurlu-Yildirim, Ecenur
  • Soytas, Ugur

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the role of open interest, trading volume and trading positions of trader groups on volatility spillover between futures and spot markets of two major commodities; oil and gold during the last two decades. The initial analysis including only spot and futures markets imply that the relationship is bi-directional for crude oil, and uni-directional for gold. Though, including open interest and trading volume enrich our results indicating open interest and spot markets are closely connected and trading volume provide cross-market information, which might suggest investors investing in both commodities make these markets informationally connected. Given the increasing presence of institutional investors in commodity markets during the sample period, we also check whether speculators lead to excess volatility in futures market as financialization proponents argue. Findings depict that actually the spillover is from futures market to speculators’ positions implying volatility in commodity markets is not attributable to speculators in the last two decades.

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  • Ordu-Akkaya, Beyza Mina & Ugurlu-Yildirim, Ecenur & Soytas, Ugur, 2019. "The role of trading volume, open interest and trader positions on volatility transmission between spot and futures markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 410-422.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:61:y:2019:i:c:p:410-422
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2018.02.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Yu-Lun & Mo, Wan-Shin, 2023. "Determinants and dynamic interactions of trader positions in the gold futures market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    2. Junior, Peterson Owusu & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Padhan, Hemachandra & Alagidede, Imhotep, 2020. "Analysis of EEMD-based quantile-in-quantile approach on spot- futures prices of energy and precious metals in India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    3. Chien-Hung Chen & Nicholas Lee & Fu-Min Chang & Li-Peng Lan, 2021. "Are global gold futures returns volatilities and trading activities threshold cointegrated?," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(5), pages 525-538, May.
    4. Apostolakis, George N. & Floros, Christos & Gkillas, Konstantinos & Wohar, Mark, 2024. "Volatility spillovers across the spot and futures oil markets after news announcements," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    5. Chen, Xiangyu & Tongurai, Jittima, 2022. "Spillovers and interdependency across base metals: Evidence from China's futures and spot markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Q02; Q40; G12; Commodity; Spillover; Open interest; Trading volume; Speculators; Financialization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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