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Informed Trading in Oil-Futures Market

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  • Rousse, Olivier
  • Sévi, Benoît

Abstract

The weekly release of the U.S. inventory level by the DOE-EIA is known as the market mover in the U.S. oil futures market and to be a significant piece of information for all world oil markets in which the WTI is a price benchmark. We uncover suspicious trading patterns in the WTI futures markets in days when the inventory level is released that are higher than economists’ forecasts: there are significantly more orders initiated by buyers in the two hours preceding the official release of the inventory level. We also show a clear drop in the average price of -0.25% ahead of the news release. This is consistent with informed trading. We also provide evidence of an asymmetric response of the oil price to the news, and highlight an over-reaction that is partly compensated in the hours following the announcement.

Suggested Citation

  • Rousse, Olivier & Sévi, Benoît, 2016. "Informed Trading in Oil-Futures Market," ESP: Energy Scenarios and Policy 249788, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:feemes:249788
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.249788
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    Keywords

    Financial Economics;

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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