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The Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship Since the Mid-1980s: A Global Perspective

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  • Claudio Morana

Abstract

We investigate the oil price-macroeconomy relationship from a global perspective, by means of a large scale macro-financial-econometric model. In addition to real activity, we consider fiscal and monetary policy responses and labor and financial markets conditions, in order to provide a comprehensive account of the macro-financial effects of oil price shocks. We find that oil market supply side, speculative, preferences, and volatility shocks exercised recessionary effects during the first and second Persian Gulf War and 2008 oil price episodes. As long as oil supply will keep expanding at a slower pace than required by demand conditions, and in so far as the recently passed regulatory provisions aimed at controlling financial speculation in the oil (and other commodities) futures market will prove unsuccessful, a recessionary bias, determined by higher and more uncertain real oil prices, may then be expected to persist also in the near future.

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  • Claudio Morana, 2013. "The Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship Since the Mid-1980s: A Global Perspective," The Energy Journal, , vol. 34(3), pages 153-190, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:34:y:2013:i:3:p:153-190
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.34.3.8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bassam Fattouh, Lutz Kilian, and Lavan Mahadeva, 2013. "The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
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    4. Kilian, Lutz & Edelstein, Paul, 2007. "The Response of Business Fixed Investment to Changes in Energy Prices: A Test of Some Hypotheses About the Transmission of Ener," CEPR Discussion Papers 6507, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Shiyi & Chen, Dengke & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2014. "The influence of oil price shocks on China's macro-economy: A perspective of international trade," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2014-063, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.

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