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Herding and Speculation in the Crude Oil Market

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  • Celso Brunetti
  • Bahattin Bykahin
  • Jeffrey H. Harris

Abstract

We examine whether herding among speculators in U.S. crude oil futures markets affects market prices and volatility. Using detailed data on the positions of hedge funds and swap dealers from 2005-2009, we find little evidence that herding destabilizes the crude oil futures market. To the contrary, herding among speculative traders is negatively correlated with contemporaneous volatility and does not lead next-day volatility. Our impulse-response analysis shows that market regulators should monitor herding since a shock to herding among all groups may lead to price changes, and, in the case of hedge funds, may lead to increased volatility. Interestingly, however, increased swap dealer herding actually dampens crude oil price volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Celso Brunetti & Bahattin Bykahin & Jeffrey H. Harris, 2013. "Herding and Speculation in the Crude Oil Market," The Energy Journal, , vol. 34(3), pages 83-104, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:34:y:2013:i:3:p:83-104
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.34.3.5
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    2. Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin & Galariotis, Emilios & Philippas, Dionisis, 2021. "Chasing the ‘green bandwagon’ in times of uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    3. Tsionas, Mike G. & Philippas, Dionisis & Philippas, Nikolaos, 2022. "Multivariate stochastic volatility for herding detection: Evidence from the energy sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    4. Valenti, Daniele & Manera, Matteo & Sbuelz, Alessandro, 2020. "Interpreting the oil risk premium: Do oil price shocks matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
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    6. Ederington, Louis H. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Hoelscher, Seth A. & Lee, Thomas K. & Linn, Scott C., 2019. "Characteristics of petroleum product prices: A survey," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 1-15.
    7. Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Ana-Maria Fuertes & Joelle Miffre, 2017. "Commodity Markets, Long-Run Predictability, and Intertemporal Pricing," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(3), pages 1159-1188.
    8. Cui, Jinxin & Alshater, Muneer M. & Mensi, Walid, 2023. "Higher-order moment risk spillovers and optimal portfolio strategies in global oil markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    9. Hong, Hui & Jiang, Lijun & Zhang, Cheng & Yue, Zhonggang, 2024. "Do conventional and new energy stock markets herd differently? Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Speculation; Hedge funds; Swap dealers; Realized volatility; Price;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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