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Navigating the oil bubble: A non-linear heterogeneous-agent dynamic model of futures oil pricing

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  • Cifarelli, Giulio
  • Paesani, Paolo

Abstract

We analyze short-term futures oil pricing over the 2003-2016 time-period in order to analyze the bubble-like dynamics, which characterizes the 2007-2009 years according to a large body of recent literature. Our investigation, based on a flexible three-agent model (hedgers, fundamentalist speculators and chartists), confirms the presence of a bubble price pattern, which we attribute to the strong destabilizing behaviour of fundamentalist speculators (e.g. hedge funds). The inclusion of the 2009-2016 sub-period, in spite of sharp and unexpected fluctuations in oil prices and a significant increase in the influence of geopolitical factors, fails to invalidate our financial interpretation.

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  • Cifarelli, Giulio & Paesani, Paolo, 2018. "Navigating the oil bubble: A non-linear heterogeneous-agent dynamic model of futures oil pricing," MPRA Paper 90470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:90470
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil pricing; Bubble; Speculation; Dynamic hedging; Logistic smooth transition; Multivariate GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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