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Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Herwartz, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2006. "Modelling the Fisher hypothesis: World wide evidence," Economics Working Papers 2006-04, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  2. Akosah, Nana Kwame & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2020. "Testing for asymmetry in monetary policy rule for small-open developing economies: Multiscale Bayesian quantile evidence from Ghana," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
  3. Pär Österholm, 2008. "Can forecasting performance be improved by considering the steady state? An application to Swedish inflation and interest rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 41-51.
  4. Martin Ruzima & Micheal Kofi Boachie & Tatjana Põlajeva & Abdul-Aziz Iddrisu, 2023. "Does the Fisher effect hold in Rwanda?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 2657-2672, June.
  5. Auckenthaler, Julia & Kupfer, Alexander & Sendlhofer, Rupert, 2015. "The impact of liquidity on inflation-linked bonds: A hypothetical indexed bonds approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 139-154.
  6. Law, Siong Hook & Tan, Hui & baharumshah, ahmad, 1999. "Financial Liberalization in ASEAN and the Fisher Hypothesis," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 33, pages 65-86.
  7. Patric H. Hendershott & Kevin E. Villani, 1981. "The Terminations Premium in Mortgage Coupon Rates: Evidence on the Integration of Mortgage and Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 0738, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Andrew Phiri, 2023. "Fisher’s hypothesis in time–frequency space: a premier using South Africa as a case study," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 4255-4284, October.
  9. Christopher Ragan, "undated". "Deriving Agents' Inflation Forecasts from the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Staff Working Papers 95-1, Bank of Canada.
  10. Pindyck, Robert S, 1984. "Risk, Inflation, and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 335-351, June.
  11. Victor L Bernard & Thomas J. Frecka, 1983. "Evidence On The Existence Of Common Stock Inflation Hedges," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 6(4), pages 301-312, December.
  12. Berlemann, Michael & Elzemann, Jorg, 2006. "Are expectations on inflation and election outcomes connected? An empirical analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 354-359, June.
  13. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Nov), pages 609-642.
  14. Philip Cagan & Robert E. Lipsey, 1978. "Bibliography," NBER Chapters, in: The Financial Effects of Inflation, pages 79-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2006_025 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. V. Vance Roley & Carl E. Walsh, 1985. "Monetary Policy Regimes, Expected Inflation, and the Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(Supplemen), pages 1011-1039.
  17. Zolotoy, Leon & Frederickson, James R. & Lyon, John D., 2017. "Aggregate earnings and stock market returns: The good, the bad, and the state-dependent," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 157-175.
  18. Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 122-157, March.
  19. Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2000. "Uncovering financial markets' beliefs about inflation targets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 483-512.
  20. Litterman, Robert B & Weiss, Laurence M, 1985. "Money, Real Interest Rates, and Output: A Reinterpretation of Postwar U.S. Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(1), pages 129-156, January.
  21. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  22. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Inflation Illusion and Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 19-23, May.
  23. E. Chuke NWUDE, 2013. "A Critical Analysis of Inflation-Hedging Capacity of Packaging Stocks in Nigeria," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(11), pages 1435-1459, November.
  24. M. Kabir Hassan & Ahmad Khasawneh, 2009. "The Risks of Off-Balance Sheet Derivatives in U.S. Commercial Banks," NFI Working Papers 2009-WP-11, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
  25. Beaulieu, Marie-Claude, 1995. "Rendements boursiers et inflation," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 71(4), pages 455-480, décembre.
  26. Schwert, G. William, 2003. "Anomalies and market efficiency," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 939-974, Elsevier.
  27. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Forecast evaluation and combination," Research Paper 9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  28. Allan Jonathan da Silva & Leonardo Fagundes de Mello, 2024. "On the Interest Rate Derivatives Pricing with Discrete Probability Distribution and Calibration with Genetic Algorithm," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 16(1), pages 1-42, January.
  29. El-Shagi, Makram, 2011. "Inflation expectations: Does the market beat econometric forecasts?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 298-319.
  30. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
  31. Hibiki Ichiue, 2004. "Why Can the Yield Curve Predict Output Growth, Inflation, and Interest Rates? An Analysis with an Affine Term Structure Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 04-E-11, Bank of Japan.
  32. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
  33. Kim B. Clark & Lawrence H. Summers, 1982. "Labour Force Participation: Timing and Persistence," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(5), pages 825-844.
  34. Virén, Matti, 1989. "The long-run relationship between interest rates and inflation : some cross-country evidence," Research Discussion Papers 20/1989, Bank of Finland.
  35. Terence Mills & Ping Wang, 2003. "Regime shifts in European real interest rates," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 139(1), pages 66-81, March.
  36. Nektarios Aslanidis & Selva Demiralp, 2020. "Has the Financial Crisis affected the Real Interest Rate Dynamics in Europe?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 16(1), pages 1-18, April.
  37. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 79-138.
  38. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1990. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(3), pages 815-828.
  39. Patric H. Hendershott & Roger D. Huang, 1983. "Debt and Equity Yields: 1926-80," NBER Working Papers 1142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Utku ALTUNÖZ, 2018. "Investigating the Presence of Fisher Effect for the China Economy," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 26(35).
  41. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-101, July.
  42. Stefan Norrbin & Onsurang Pipatchaipoom, 2006. "Reexamining Real Interest Rate Parity," EcoMod2006 272100068, EcoMod.
  43. Schotman, Peter C. & Schweitzer, Mark, 2000. "Horizon sensitivity of the inflation hedge of stocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 301-315, November.
  44. Dimson, Elroy & Spaenjers, Christophe, 2011. "Ex post: The investment performance of collectible stamps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 443-458, May.
  45. Basma Bekdache & Christopher F. Baum, 1999. "A re-evaluation of empirical tests of the Fisher hypothesis," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 944, Society for Computational Economics, revised 18 Sep 2000.
  46. Hercowitz, Zvi, 1983. "Anticipated Inflation, the Frequency of Transactions, and the Slope of the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(2), pages 139-154, May.
  47. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
  48. Kujtim Avdiu & Stephan Unger, 2022. "Predicting Inflation—A Holistic Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-14, March.
  49. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2003. "Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1449-1494.
  50. Deev Oleg & Hodula Martin, 2016. "The Long-Run Superneutrality of Money Revised: the Extended European Evidence," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 16(3), pages 187-203, September.
  51. Sadaf Zafar & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2015. "Evaluation of Gold Investment as an Inflationary Hedge in Case of Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2015:118, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  52. Jen-Chi Cheng & Larry Taylor & Wenlong Weng, 2010. "The links between international parity conditions and Granger causality: a study of exchange rates and prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(27), pages 3491-3501.
  53. Peter C. B. Phillips, 2005. "Econometric Analysis of Fisher's Equation," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 125-168, January.
  54. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
  55. E. Chuke NWUDE, 2013. "Inflation-Hedging Properties of Petroleum Marketing Stocks in Nigeria," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(12), pages 1488-1512, December.
  56. Panpan Zhu & Qingjie Zhou & Yinpeng Zhang, 2024. "Investor attention and consumer price index inflation rate: Evidence from the United States," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
  57. Timmermann, Allan & Elliott, Graham & Komunjer, Ivana, 2003. "Estimating Loss Function Parameters," CEPR Discussion Papers 3821, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  58. Hossein Varamini & Jason Clough & Madison McCall, 2017. "An Empirical Investigation of the International Fisher Effect: Mexican Peso and United States Dollar," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 3(7), pages 110-113, 07-2017.
  59. Weber Ernst Juerg, 2010. "The Role of the Real Interest Rate in U.S. Macroeconomic History," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-26, April.
  60. Garcia, Rene & Perron, Pierre, 1996. "An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate under Regime Shifts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 111-125, February.
  61. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alaña, Luis, 2019. "Testing the Fisher hypothesis in the G-7 countries using I(d) techniques," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 140-150.
  62. Grossman, Sanford J & Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 222-227, May.
  63. Bjorn Wahlroos & Tom Berglund, 1984. "Stock Returns," Discussion Papers 598, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  64. Arnold, Stephan & Auer, Benjamin R., 2015. "What do scientists know about inflation hedging?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 187-214.
  65. Ravenna, Federico & Seppälä, Juha, 2006. "Monetary policy and rejections of the expectations hypothesis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2006, Bank of Finland.
  66. Elliott, Graham, 2011. "A control function approach for testing the usefulness of trending variables in forecast models and linear regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 79-91, September.
  67. Andrea SALAS ORTIZ & Rodrigo GOMEZ MONGE, 2015. "Finding International Fisher effect to determine the exchange rate through the purchasing power parity theory: the case of Mexico during the period 1996-2012," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 15(1), pages 97-110.
  68. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2000_022 is not listed on IDEAS
  69. Coppock, Lee & Poitras, Marc, 2000. "Evaluating the Fisher effect in long-term cross-country averages," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 181-192.
  70. Matthew C. Li, 2014. "The US zero-coupon yield spread as a predictor of excess daily stock market volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(13), pages 889-906, July.
  71. Benedikt Fleischmann & Carsten Fritz & Steffen Sebastian, 2019. "Real Estate, Stocks, and Bonds as a Deflation Hedge," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 22(1), pages 1-26.
  72. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory," Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  73. Pons Novell, J., 2002. "Ciclo de la economía española y contenido informativo de los tipos de interés," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 583-598, Diciembre.
  74. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1990. "What does the term structure tell us about future inflation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 77-95, January.
  75. Pelaez, Rolando F., 1995. "The Fisher effect: Reprise," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 333-346.
  76. D’Amico, Stefania & Kim, Don H. & Wei, Min, 2018. "Tips from TIPS: The Informational Content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 395-436, February.
  77. Michael Berlemann & Forrest Nelson, 2005. "Forecasting Inflation via Experimental Stock Markets Some Results from Pilot Markets," ifo Working Paper Series 10, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  78. Marc Simpson & Sanjay Ramchander & James Webb, 2007. "The Asymmetric Response of Equity REIT Returns to Inflation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 513-529, May.
  79. Huizinga, John & Mishkin, Frederic S, 1984. "Inflation and Real Interest Rates on Assets with Different Risk Characteristics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 699-712, July.
  80. Crockett, Jean A., 1998. "Rational expectations, inflation and the nominal interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 349-363.
  81. Martin Feldstein, 1982. "The Fiscal Framework of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 0966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  82. Chakraborty, Lekha S., 2006. "Fiscal deficit, capital formation, and crowding out: Evidence from India," Working Papers 06/43, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  83. Ravenna, Federico & Seppälä, Juha, 2006. "Monetary policy and rejections of the expectations hypothesis," Research Discussion Papers 25/2006, Bank of Finland.
  84. Antonio Ribba, 2011. "On some neglected implications of the Fisher effect," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 451-470, April.
  85. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1988. "Understanding Real Interest Rates," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1064-1072.
  86. Ali F. Darrat, 1988. "Rational Expectations and the Role of Monetary Policy: Some Tests Based on the Fisher Equation," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 211-219, Jul-Sep.
  87. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2008. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 797-849, April.
  88. Norma A. Hernández Perales & Russell Robins, 2002. "An Application Of Arch And Arch-M Models To Study Inflation In Mexico From 1978 To 1999," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 1(3), pages 169-186, Septiembr.
  89. Frederic S. Mishkin & John Simon, 1995. "An Empirical Examination of the Fisher Effect in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(3), pages 217-229, September.
  90. Paul, M. Thomas, 1984. "Interest rates and the fisher effect in India : An empirical study," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 17-22.
  91. Lorde, Troy & Francis, Brian & Waithe, Kimberly & Taylor, Timothy, 2008. "Interest Rate Determination in Small Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 95621, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  92. Noor Ghazali & Shamshubariah Ramlee, 2003. "A long memory test of the long-run Fisher effect in the G7 countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(10), pages 763-769.
  93. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2007. "Optimal Instruments In Time Series: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 143-173, February.
  94. Markus J. Granziol & Anna Holzgang, 1988. "The Contribution of Inflation to the Level and the Variability of Nominal Interest Rates : Some Multi-Country Evidence," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 124(IV), pages 559-573, December.
  95. Dirk Brounen & Melissa Porras Prado & Marno Verbeek, 2010. "Real Estate in an ALM Framework: The Case of Fair Value Accounting," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(4), pages 775-804, Winter.
  96. Peter Sellin, 2001. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 491-541, September.
  97. M. M. Islam Chowdhury & Apostolos Serletis, 2024. "The Gibson Paradox and the Fisher Effect in Advanced and Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(5), pages 955-983, November.
  98. E. Chuke NWUDE, 2013. "The Impact of Inflation on Stock Market Investment Performance: Evidence from Airlines Automobiles Road Transport and Maritime Sectors Stocks of the Nigerian Stock Exchange," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(10), pages 1257-1276, October.
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  100. Virén, Matti, 1989. "The long-run relationship between interest rates and inflation: some cross-country evidence," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/1989, Bank of Finland.
  101. John H. Makin, 1981. "Real Interest, Money Surprises and Anticipated Inflation," NBER Working Papers 0818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  102. Alberto Giovannini & Philippe Weil, 1989. "Risk Aversion and Intertemporal Substitution in the Capital Asset Pricing Model," NBER Working Papers 2824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  103. Pamela Jervis, 2007. "Inflation Compensation and Its Components in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(2), pages 27-56, August.
  104. Alberto Giovannini, 2013. "Risk-free assets in financial markets," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 72, pages 73-78, Bank for International Settlements.
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  134. Bidarkota, Prasad V., 1998. "The comparative forecast performance of univariate and multivariate models: an application to real interest rate forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 457-468, December.
  135. Seppälä, Juha, 2000. "The term structure of real interest rates: Theory and evidence form UK index-linked bonds," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2000, Bank of Finland.
  136. Chu, Quentin C. & Pittman, Deborah N. & Yu, Linda Q., 2003. "Real rates, nominal rates, and the Fisherian link," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 189-205.
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  138. Mr. Vadim Khramov, 2013. "Estimating Parameters of Short-Term Real Interest Rate Models," IMF Working Papers 2013/212, International Monetary Fund.
  139. Claude Bismut & Ismael Ramajo, 2018. "On the empirical relevance of the Lucas supply curve. (A note)," CEE-M Working Papers hal-01954918, CEE-M, Universtiy of Montpellier, CNRS, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro.
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  142. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Alam, Md. Mahmudul & Alam, Kazi Ashraful, 2019. "An Empirical Evidence of Fisher Effect in Bangladesh: A Time-Series Approach," SocArXiv udpwj, Center for Open Science.
  143. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation, Tax Rules, and the Stock Market," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 199-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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