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Testing Fisher hypothesis in long horizons for G7 and eight Asian countries.1

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  • Ka-Fu Wong
  • Hai-Jun Wu

Abstract

Using monthly data from G7 and eight Asian countries, support is found for the Fisher hypothesis, as well as a positive relation between long-horizon nominal stock returns and expected inflation but not between long-horizon nominal stock returns and contemporaneous inflation. These empirical results complement and strengthen those of Boudoukh and Richardson. 1 The MATLAB program and data to compute the results in this paper are available from http://kafuwong.econ.hku.hk/research/fisher/.

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  • Ka-Fu Wong & Hai-Jun Wu, 2003. "Testing Fisher hypothesis in long horizons for G7 and eight Asian countries.1," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(14), pages 917-923.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:10:y:2003:i:14:p:917-923
    DOI: 10.1080/1350485032000158645
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    1. Evans, Martin D D & Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Affect Estimates of the Long-Run Fisher Relation?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 225-253, March.
    2. Koustas, Zisimos & Serletis, Apostolos, 1999. "On the Fisher effect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 105-130, August.
    3. Darby, Michael R, 1975. "The Financial and Tax Effects of Monetary Policy on Interest Rates," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(2), pages 266-276, June.
    4. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    5. Tanzi, Vito, 1980. "Inflationary Expectations, Economic Activity, Taxes, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(1), pages 12-21, March.
    6. Nelson, Charles R, 1976. "Inflation and Rates of Return on Common Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 471-483, May.
    7. Pesaran, M Hashem & Smith, Richard J, 1994. "A Generalized R[superscript]2 Criterion for Regression Models Estimated by the Instrumental Variables Method," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 705-710, May.
    8. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-282, June.
    9. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
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    11. repec:bla:scotjp:v:46:y:1999:i:2:p:207-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Boudoukh, Jacob & Richardson, Matthew, 1993. "Stock Returns and Inflation: A Long-Horizon Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1346-1355, December.
    13. William J. Crowder & Mark E. Wohar, 1999. "Are Tax Effects Important in the Long‐Run Fisher Relationship? Evidence from the Municipal Bond Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 307-317, February.
    14. Hakan Berument, 1999. "The Impact of Inflation Uncertainty on Interest Rates in the UK," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 207-218, May.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Rushdi, Mustabshira & Kim, Jae H. & Silvapulle, Param, 2012. "ARDL bounds tests and robust inference for the long run relationship between real stock returns and inflation in Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 535-543.
    3. Paul Alagidede, 2009. "Relationship between stock returns and inflation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(14), pages 1403-1408.
    4. Andrew Phiri, 2023. "Fisher’s hypothesis in time–frequency space: a premier using South Africa as a case study," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 4255-4284, October.
    5. Hsiao-Fen Chang, 2013. "Are ‘stock returns’ a hedge against inflation in Japan? Determination using ADL bounds testing," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(14), pages 1305-1309, September.
    6. Takayasu Ito, 2009. "Fisher Hypothesis in Japan: Analysis of Long‐term Interest Rates under Different Monetary Policy Regimes," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(7), pages 1019-1035, July.
    7. Salah Nusair, 2008. "Testing for the Fisher hypothesis under regime shifts: an application to Asian countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 273-284.
    8. İsmet Göçer & Serdar Ongan, 2020. "Asymmetric Impacts of Inflation on the US Bond Rates and FED’s Pre-Emptive Policy," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 5(2), pages 143-157, December.

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