IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfpr/y1982inovp1-36.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Why money announcements move interest rates: an answer from the foreign exchange market

Author

Listed:
  • Charles Engel
  • Jeffrey A. Frankel

Abstract

On a Friday that the Fed announces a money supply greater than had been anticipated, interest rates move up in response. Why? One explanation is that the market perceives the fluctuation in the moneystock as an unintended deviation from the Fed's target growth rate that will be reversed in subsequent periods. The anticipation of this future tightening drives up interest rates today. A second explanation is that the market perceives the increase in the money supply as signalling a higher target growth rate. The expected future inflation rate rises,which is reflected in a higher nominal Interest rate.This paper offers grounds for choosing between the two possible explanations: evidence from the exchange market. Under the first explanation, anticipated future tightening, one would expect the dollar to appreciate against foreign currencies. Under the second explanation,expected inflation, one would expect it to depreciate. We render these claims more concrete by a formal model, a generalization of the Dornbusch overshooting model. Then we use the mark/dollar rate toanswer the question. We find a statistically significant tendency for the dollar to appreciate following positive money supply surprises.This supports the first explanation.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Engel & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1982. "Why money announcements move interest rates: an answer from the foreign exchange market," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue 6, pages 1-36.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:1982:i:nov:p:1-36
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:scandj:v:78:y:1976:i:2:p:200-224 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-282, June.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-622, September.
    4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    5. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Papell, David H., 1984. "Activist monetary policy and exchange-rate overshooting: The Deutsche mark/dollar rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 293-310, December.
    2. V. Vance Roley & Carl E. Walsh, 1985. "Monetary Policy Regimes, Expected Inflation, and the Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(Supplemen), pages 1011-1039.
    3. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1983. "Commodity Prices, Overshooting, Money Surprises, and Fed Credibility," NBER Working Papers 1121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saiki, Ayako, 2016. "Does It Matter If Statistical Agencies Frame the Month's CPI Report on a 1-Month or 12-Month Basis?," Working Paper Series 16-011, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    5. R. Dornbusch, 1982. "Equilibrium and Disequilibrium Exchange Rates," Working papers 309, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    6. Kearney, Adrienne A., 1996. "The effect of changing monetary policy regimes on stock prices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 429-447.
    7. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(1), pages 173-224.
    8. Richard Hartman & John H. Makin, 1982. "Inflation Uncertainty and Interest Rates: Theory and Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 0906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Goldberg, Michael D. & Frydman, Roman, 1996. "Empirical exchange rate models and shifts in the co-integrating vector," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 55-78, March.
    10. John H. Makin & Vito Tanzi, 1983. "The Level and Volatility of Interest Rates in the United States: The Roles of Expected Inflation, Real Rates, and Taxes," NBER Working Papers 1167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Sahminan, Sahminan, 2007. "Financial Market Responses to Bank Indonesia’s Policy Announcements," MPRA Paper 93401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Charles Pigott, 1984. "Indicators of long-term real interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Win, pages 45-63.
    13. Andreas Fischer, 1989. "Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates Using Weekly Money Announcements," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 125(I), pages 43-53, March.
    14. Robert G. King & Bharat Trehan, 1983. "The Implications of an Endogenous Money Supply for Monetary Neutrality," NBER Working Papers 1175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Habimana, Olivier, 2017. "The multiscale relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals differentials: Empirical evidence from Scandinavia," MPRA Paper 75956, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya & Savaş Kaptan & Metehan Cömert, 2019. "Interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates in fragile EMEs: A fresh look at the long-run interrelationships," Working Papers halshs-02095652, HAL.
    3. Kholdy, Shady & Sohrabian, Ahmad, 1995. "Testing for the relationship between nominal exchange rates and economic fundamentals," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 121-134.
    4. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Hany Eldemerdash & Hugh Metcalf & Sara Maioli, 2014. "Twin deficits: new evidence from a developing (oil vs. non-oil) countries’ perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 825-851, November.
    6. Dal Bianco, Marcos & Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel, 2012. "Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 377-396.
    7. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber, 2020. "Model instability in predictive exchange rate regressions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 168-186, March.
    8. van de Gucht, Linda M. & Dekimpe, Marnik G. & Kwok, Chuck C. Y., 1996. "Persistence in foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 191-220, April.
    9. Schotman, Peter & van Dijk, Herman K., 1991. "A Bayesian analysis of the unit root in real exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 195-238.
    10. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    11. Stuart Landon & Constance E. Smith, 2003. "The Risk Premium, Exchange Rate Expectations, and the Forward Exchange Rate: Estimates for the Yen–Dollar Rate," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 144-158, February.
    12. Luis Arango & Yanneth Betancourt, 2005. "A signal of imperfect portfolio capital adjustments from the domestic and foreign Colombian debt," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(9), pages 587-597.
    13. Husted, Steven & MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "Monetary-based models of the exchange rate: a panel perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-19, January.
    14. Chinn, Menzie D, 1999. "On the Won and Other East Asian Currencies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 113-127, April.
    15. Taylor Mark P. & Sarno Lucio, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Transition Economies: A Nonlinear Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 1-26, October.
    16. Meese, Richard & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1986. "Was it real? The exchange rate -- Interest differential relation: 1973-1984," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 297-298, June.
    17. Svatopluk Kapounek & Zuzana Kučerová & Evžen Kočenda, 2022. "Selective Attention in Exchange Rate Forecasting," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 210-229, May.
    18. Song, Chi-Young, 1997. "The Real Exchange Rate and the Current Account Balance in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 143-184, June.
    19. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "The implications of monetary expansion in China for the US dollar," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 71-84.
    20. Yu Hsing, 2016. "Determinants of the ZAR/USD exchange rate and policy implications: A simultaneous-equation model," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1151131-115, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:1982:i:nov:p:1-36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.