IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/deu/dpaper/0504.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fisher Hypothesis Revisited: A Fractional Cointegration Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Saadet Kirbas Kasman

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Business, Dokuz Eylül University)

  • Adnan Kasman

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Business, Dokuz Eylül University)

  • Evrim Turgutlu

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Business, Dokuz Eylül University)

Abstract

This paper investigates the validity of the Fisher hypothesis using data from 33 developed and developing countries. Conventional cointegration tests do not provide strong evidence on the relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation. Therefore, we use fractional cointegration analysis to test the long-run relationship between the two variables. The results indicate that the long-run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation do not exist for most countries in the sample when conventional cointegration test is employed. However, fractional cointegration between the two variables is found for a large majority of countries, implying the validity of the Fisher hypothesis. The results also indicate that the equilibrium errors display long memory.

Suggested Citation

  • Saadet Kirbas Kasman & Adnan Kasman & Evrim Turgutlu, 2005. "Fisher Hypothesis Revisited: A Fractional Cointegration Analysis," Discussion Paper Series 05/04, Dokuz Eylül University, Faculty of Business, Department of Economics, revised 23 Nov 2005.
    • Handle: RePEc:deu:dpaper:0504
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.deu.edu.tr/UploadedFiles/Birimler/12741/05_04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lovell, Michael C, 1986. "Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 110-124, March.
    2. Evans, Martin D D & Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Affect Estimates of the Long-Run Fisher Relation?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 225-253, March.
    3. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    4. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
    5. Crowder, William J & Hoffman, Dennis L, 1996. "The Long-Run Relationship between Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation: The Fisher Equation Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 102-118, February.
    6. Noor Ghazali & Shamshubariah Ramlee, 2003. "A long memory test of the long-run Fisher effect in the G7 countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(10), pages 763-769.
    7. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-282, June.
    8. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
    9. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    10. Hakan Berument & Mohamed Mehdi Jelassi, 2002. "The Fisher hypothesis: a multi-country analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(13), pages 1645-1655.
    11. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1992. "Is the Fisher effect for real? : A reexamination of the relationship between inflation and interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 195-215, November.
    12. Valerie Mignon & Sandrine Lardic, 2003. "Fractional cointegration between nominal interest rates and inflation: A re-examination of the Fisher relationship in the G7 countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(14), pages 1-10.
    13. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2003:i:14:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    15. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Modeling long-run behavior with the fractional ARIMA model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-302, April.
    16. Christos Agiakloglou & Paul Newbold & Mark Wohar, 1993. "Bias In An Estimator Of The Fractional Difference Parameter," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 235-246, May.
    17. Abdol Soofi, 1998. "A fractional cointegration test of purchasing power parity: the case of selected members of OPEC," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 559-566.
    18. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    19. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
    20. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "A Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 103-112, January.
    21. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Paper 1227, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    22. C. W. J. Granger & Roselyne Joyeux, 1980. "An Introduction To Long‐Memory Time Series Models And Fractional Differencing," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Salah Nusair, 2008. "Testing for the Fisher hypothesis under regime shifts: an application to Asian countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 273-284.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adnan Kasman & Saadet Kirbas-Kasman & Evrim Turgutlu, 2005. "Nominal and real convergence between the CEE countries and the EU: a fractional cointegration analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2487-2500.
    2. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2003:i:14:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Burcu Kiran, 2013. "A fractional cointegration analysis of Fisher hypothesis: evidence from Turkey," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 1077-1084, February.
    4. Noor Ghazali & Shamshubariah Ramlee, 2003. "A long memory test of the long-run Fisher effect in the G7 countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(10), pages 763-769.
    5. S. Lardic & V. Mignon, 2002. "Fractional cointegration and term structure of interest rates," THEMA Working Papers 2002-28, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    6. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Nov), pages 609-642.
    7. Basma Bekdache & Christopher F. Baum, 1999. "A re-evaluation of empirical tests of the Fisher hypothesis," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 944, Society for Computational Economics, revised 18 Sep 2000.
    8. Jürgen Wolters & Uwe Hassler, 2006. "Unit Root Testing," Springer Books, in: Olaf Hübler & Jachim Frohn (ed.), Modern Econometric Analysis, chapter 4, pages 41-56, Springer.
    9. Granville, Brigitte & Mallick, Sushanta, 2006. "Does inflation or currency depreciation drive monetary policy in Russia?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 163-179, June.
    10. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
    11. repec:got:cegedp:76 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Michael KUEHL, 2008. "Strong Comovements of Exchange Rates: Theoretical and Empirical Cases when Currencies Become the Same Asset," EcoMod2008 23800071, EcoMod.
    13. Haldrup, Niels & Nielsen, Morten Orregaard, 2006. "A regime switching long memory model for electricity prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 349-376.
    14. Kühl, Michael, 2007. "Cointegration in the foreign exchange market and market efficiency since the introduction of the Euro: Evidence based on bivariate cointegration analyses," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 68, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    15. Sandrine Lardic & Valérie Mignon, 2004. "Fractional cointegration and the term structure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 723-736, December.
    16. James Kung & Andrew Carverhill, 2005. "A cointegration study of the efficiency of the US Treasury STRIPS market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 695-703.
    17. Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse & Timo Teräsvirta & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2013. "Unit roots, non-linearities and structural breaks," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 4, pages 61-94, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Mpho Bosupeng, 2015. "The Fisher Effect Using Differences in The Deterministic Term," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 5(4), pages 1031-1031.
    19. Hari S. Luitel & Gerry J. Mahar, 2016. "Algebra of Integrated Time Series: Evidence from Unit Root Analysis," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 22(2), pages 199-209, May.
    20. Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya & Savaş Kaptan & Metehan Cömert, 2019. "Interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates in fragile EMEs: A fresh look at the long-run interrelationships," Working Papers halshs-02095652, HAL.
    21. Rapach, David E. & Weber, Christian E., 2004. "Are real interest rates really nonstationary? New evidence from tests with good size and power," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 409-430, September.
    22. Burak Güriş & Yaşar Yaşgül, 2015. "Does the Fisher hypothesis hold for the G7 countries? Evidence from ADL threshold cointegration test," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(6), pages 2549-2557, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fisher hypothesis; interest rates; fractional cointegration; long memory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:deu:dpaper:0504. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gonca Konyali (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iideutr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.