IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/uerssr/278066.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Agricultural Futures Prices And New Information

Author

Listed:
  • Kitchen, John

Abstract

Agricultural futures prices react quickly to new information. Results from agricultural futures price regressions suggest that nominal interest rate variation was dominated by variation in real interest rates during the October 1979 to October 1982 period when the Federal Reserve targeted Ml. During the rest of the 1970s and 1980s, nominal interest rate variation appeared to be more related to variation in inflation expectations. Also, corn and Wheat prices reacted to unexpected rain shocks, while soybean prices were more sensitive to temperature shocks. Export, stocks, and loan rate shocks were not as important in the evolution of spot prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Kitchen, John, 1988. "Agricultural Futures Prices And New Information," Staff Reports 278066, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uerssr:278066
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.278066
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/278066/files/ers-report-368.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.278066?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cumby, Robert E. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1986. "The international linkage of real interest rates: The European-US connection," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 5-23, March.
    2. Richard E. Just & Gordon C. Rausser, 1981. "Commodity Price Forecasting with Large-Scale Econometric Models and the Futures Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(2), pages 197-208.
    3. Huizinga, John & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1986. "Monetary policy regime shifts and the unusual behavior of real interest rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 231-274, January.
    4. Rausser, Gordon C & Carter, Colin, 1983. "Futures Market Efficiency in the Soybean Complex," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 469-478, August.
    5. David Bigman & David Goldfarb & Edna Schechtman, 1983. "Futures market efficiency and the time content of the information sets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 321-334, September.
    6. Husted, Steven & Kitchen, John, 1985. "Some Evidence on the International Transmission of U.S. Money Supply Announcement Effects," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 456-466, November.
    7. Miller, Steve, 1979. "The Response of Futures Prices to New Market Information: The Case of Live Hogs," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 67-70, July.
    8. Kitchen, John & Denbaly, Mark, 1987. "Arbitrage Conditions, Interest Rates, and Commodity Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 39(2), pages 1-9.
    9. Roll, Richard, 1984. "Orange Juice and Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 861-880, December.
    10. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    11. Edwards, Sebastian, 1982. "Exchange rates and `news': A multi-currency approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 211-224, January.
    12. Miller, Stephen E., 1979. "The Response Of Futures Prices To New Market Information: The Case Of Live Hogs," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-4, July.
    13. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1986. "Expectations and Commodity Price Dynamics: The Overshooting Model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(2), pages 344-348.
    14. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1981. "Flexible Exchange Rates, Prices, and the Role of "News": Lessons from the 1970s," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 665-705, August.
    15. Stein, Jerome L, 1981. "Speculative Price: Economic Welfare and the Idiot of Chance," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(2), pages 223-232, May.
    16. Mack Ott & Paul T. W. M. Veugelers, 1986. "Forward exchange rates in efficient markets: the effects of news and changes in monetary policy regimes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jun, pages 5-15.
    17. Craig S. Hakkio, 1986. "Interest rates and exchange rates--what is the relationship?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 71(Nov), pages 33-43.
    18. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-282, June.
    19. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen K. Pollard, 1985. "Efficiency of commodity futures: A vector autoregression analysis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 57-76, March.
    20. Cornell, Bradford, 1983. "The Money Supply Announcements Puzzle: Review and Interpretation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 644-657, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hamrick, Karen S., 1991. "Macroeconomic Impacts on Nonmetro Unemployment: Preliminary Research," Staff Reports 278579, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Kitchen, John & LeBlanc, Michael & Conway, Roger, 1989. "Commodity Prices in Monetary Policy: The Potential Role of Agricultural Commodity Prices," 1989 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 2, Baton Rouge, Louisiana 270491, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Skold, Karl Durwood, 1989. "The integration of alternative information systems: an application to the Hogs and Pigs report," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010239, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Garcia, Philip & Hudson, Michael A. & Waller, Mark L., 1988. "The Pricing Efficiency of Agricultural Futures Markets: An Analysis of Previous Research Results," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 119-130, July.
    3. Tomek, William G., 1996. "Commodity Futures Prices As Forecasts," Working Papers 127901, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    4. Blank, Steven C., 1989. "Research On Futures Markets: Issues, Approaches, And Empirical Findings," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, July.
    5. Funk, Samuel M. & Zook, James E. & Featherstone, Allen M., 2008. "Chicago Board of Trade Ethanol Contract Efficiency," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6811, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    6. Gordon, J. Douglas, 1985. "The Distribution of Daily Changes in Commodity Futures Prices," Technical Bulletins 156817, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    7. Baur, Robert Frederick, 1992. "Overreaction in futures markets," ISU General Staff Papers 1992010108000010973, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    8. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Pope, Rulon D. & Kao, Robert S., 1983. "An Analysis Of The Role Of Futures Prices, Cash Prices And Government Programs In Acreage Response," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-7, July.
    9. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    10. Utku ALTUNÖZ, 2018. "Investigating the Presence of Fisher Effect for the China Economy," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 26(35).
    11. Covey, Ted & Bessler, David A., 1991. "The Role of Futures in Daily Forward Pricing," 1991 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Manhattan, Kansas 271282, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    12. Frank, Julieta & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H., 2008. "To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 73-87, April.
    13. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    14. Paroissien, Emmanuel, 2020. "Forecasting bulk prices of Bordeaux wines using leading indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 292-309.
    15. Dhuyvetter, Kevin C. & Schroeder, Ted C. & Parcell, Joseph L., 1997. "The Effect of USDA Cattle on Feed Reports on Feeder Cattle Futures Prices," 1997 Annual Meeting, July 13-16, 1997, Reno\ Sparks, Nevada 35751, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    16. Gibson, Rajna & Habib, Michel A. & Ziegler, Alexandre, 2014. "Reinsurance or securitization: The case of natural catastrophe risk," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 79-100.
    17. Sanders, Dwight R. & Garcia, Philip & Manfredo, Mark R., 2008. "Information Content in Deferred Futures Prices: Live Cattle and Hogs," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-12, April.
    18. Koontz, Stephen R. & Hudson, Michael A. & Purcell, Wayne D., 1984. "The Impact Of Hog And Pig Reports On Live Hog Futures Prices: An Event Study Of Market Efficiency," 1984 Annual Meeting, August 5-8, Ithaca, New York 278981, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    19. David C. Leonard & Michael E. Solt, 1987. "Stock Market Signals Of Changes In Expected Inflation," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 10(1), pages 57-63, March.
    20. KIM, Jae-Young & PARK, Woong Yong, 2018. "Some Empirical Evidence on Models of the Fisher Relation: Post-Data Comparison," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-68, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uerssr:278066. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ersgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.