IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/0818.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Real Interest, Money Surprises and Anticipated Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • John H. Makin

Abstract

This paper investigates the hypothesis that surprise changes in the money supply and anticipated inflation (the Mundell-Tobin effect) are both inversely related to the expected real interest rate. The two novel aspects of the investigation are tests of the hypothesized impact of money surprises on real rates while simultaneously testing the Mundell-Tobin hypothesis and estimation employing transfer function methodology developed by Box and Jenkins (1970). The transfer function enables the investigator to entertain the hypothesis that residuals may not follow a simple AR-1 process, as is usually assumed in corrections for correlated residuals, but rather may be appropriately represented by a more complex ARMA process. Based on quarterly data from 1959-1 - 1980-IVY results obtained constitutes failure to reject either an inverse relationship between money surprises and expected real interest or an inverse relationship between anticipated inflation and expected real interest. These findings do not constitute a rejection of market efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • John H. Makin, 1981. "Real Interest, Money Surprises and Anticipated Inflation," NBER Working Papers 0818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0818
    Note: ME EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0818.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-115, March.
    2. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-282, June.
    3. Nelson, Charles R & Schwert, G William, 1977. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation: On Testing the Hypothesis That the Real Rate of Interest is Constant," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 478-486, June.
    4. Joines, Douglas, 1977. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 476-477, June.
    5. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation, Income Taxes, and the Rate of Interest: A Theoretical Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 28-43, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Levi, Maurice D & Makin, John H, 1978. "Anticipated Inflation and Interest Rates: Further Interpretation of Findings on the Fisher Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(5), pages 801-812, December.
    7. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
    8. Garbade, Kenneth & Wachtel, Paul, 1978. "Time variation in the relationship between inflation and interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 755-765, November.
    9. Bomberger, William A & Frazer, William J, Jr, 1981. "Interest Rates, Uncertainty and the Livingston Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(3), pages 661-675, June.
    10. Dwyer, Gerald Jr., 1981. "Are expectations of inflation rational? or Is variation of the expected real interest rate unpredictable?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 59-84.
    11. Darby, Michael R, 1975. "The Financial and Tax Effects of Monetary Policy on Interest Rates," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(2), pages 266-276, June.
    12. Hess, Patrick J. & Bicksler, James L., 1975. "Capital asset prices versus time series models as predictors of inflation: The expected real rate of interest and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 341-360, December.
    13. Tanzi, Vito, 1980. "Inflationary Expectations, Economic Activity, Taxes, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(1), pages 12-21, March.
    14. Bradford Cornell, 1981. "Can monetary policy affect the ex-ante real rate: new tests using daily data," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue 5, pages 4-46.
    15. Michael W. Keran & Charles Pigott, 1980. "Interest rates and exchange rates: II, policy implications," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sep19.
    16. Khan, Mohsin S., 1983. "Estimating models of expectations : A simplified sequential approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 175-180.
    17. Carlson, John A, 1977. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 469-475, June.
    18. Robert Mundell, 1963. "Inflation and Real Interest," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(3), pages 280-280.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Brian Motley, 1983. "Real interest rates, money and government deficits," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sum, pages 31-45.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter Kehinde, Mogaji, 2010. "Fisher Effect and the Relationship between Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation: The Case of Nigeria," MPRA Paper 98760, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. S, Surayya, 2018. "Alternative Specifications of Fisher Hypothesis: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 90320, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Karen K. Lewis & Martin D. Evans, 1992. "Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Policy Affect Real Rates?," NBER Working Papers 4134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Can the Fed Control Real Interest Rates?," NBER Chapters, in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 117-167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Nov), pages 609-642.
    6. John H. Makin & Vito Tanzi, 1983. "The Level and Volatility of Interest Rates in the United States: The Roles of Expected Inflation, Real Rates, and Taxes," NBER Working Papers 1167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Kate Phylaktis & David Blake, 1993. "The fisher hypothesis: Evidence from three high inflation economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 129(3), pages 591-599, September.
    8. Anari, Ali & Kolari, James, 2016. "Dynamics of interest and inflation rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 129-144.
    9. James R. Rhodes, 2006. "DEVOLUTION OF THE FISHER EQUATION: Rational Appreciation to Money Illusion," GRIPS Discussion Papers 08-04, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, revised Jun 2008.
    10. Radó, Márk, 2003. "Infláció, tőkeköltség és a magyar tulajdonosok versenyhátránya [Inflation, capital costs and the competitive disadvantage of Hungarian owners]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 964-987.
    11. Anari, Ali & Kolari, James, 2019. "The Fisher puzzle, real rate anomaly, and Wicksell effect," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 128-148.
    12. Lorde, Troy & Francis, Brian & Waithe, Kimberly & Taylor, Timothy, 2008. "Interest Rate Determination in Small Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 95621, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Markus J. Granziol & Anna Holzgang, 1988. "The Contribution of Inflation to the Level and the Variability of Nominal Interest Rates : Some Multi-Country Evidence," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 124(IV), pages 559-573, December.
    14. Dong-Hyeon Kim & Shu-Chin Lin & Joyce Hsieh & Yu-Bo Suen, 2018. "The Fisher Equation: A Nonlinear Panel Data Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(1), pages 162-180, January.
    15. Arnold, Stephan & Auer, Benjamin R., 2015. "What do scientists know about inflation hedging?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 187-214.
    16. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1984. "The Real Interest Rate: A Multi-Country Empirical Study," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 283-311, May.
    17. Litterman, Robert B & Weiss, Laurence M, 1985. "Money, Real Interest Rates, and Output: A Reinterpretation of Postwar U.S. Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(1), pages 129-156, January.
    18. Richard Hartman & John H. Makin, 1982. "Inflation Uncertainty and Interest Rates: Theory and Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 0906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Bharat R. Kolluri, 1982. "Anticipated Price Changes, Inflation Uncertainty, And Capital Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 5(2), pages 135-149, June.
    20. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alaña, 2019. "Testing the Fisher hypothesis in the G-7 countries using I(d) techniques," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 159, pages 140-150.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0818. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.