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The (in)visible hand in the Libor market: an Information Theory approach

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  • Aurelio F. Bariviera
  • M. Bel'en Guercio
  • Lisana B. Martinez
  • Osvaldo A. Rosso

Abstract

This paper analyzes several interest rates time series from the United Kingdom during the period 1999 to 2014. The analysis is carried out using a pioneering statistical tool in the financial literature: the complexity-entropy causality plane. This representation is able to classify different stochastic and chaotic regimes in time series. We use sliding temporal windows to assess changes in the intrinsic stochastic dynamics of the time series. Anomalous behavior in the Libor is detected, especially around the time of the last financial crisis, that could be consistent with data manipulation.

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  • Aurelio F. Bariviera & M. Bel'en Guercio & Lisana B. Martinez & Osvaldo A. Rosso, 2015. "The (in)visible hand in the Libor market: an Information Theory approach," Papers 1508.04748, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1508.04748
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    1. Rosa Abrantes-Metz & Sofia Villas-Boas & George Judge, 2011. "Tracking the Libor rate," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(10), pages 893-899.
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    19. Zunino, Luciano & Fernández Bariviera, Aurelio & Guercio, M. Belén & Martinez, Lisana B. & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2012. "On the efficiency of sovereign bond markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(18), pages 4342-4349.
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    Cited by:

    1. Miśkiewicz, Janusz, 2016. "Improving quality of sample entropy estimation for continuous distribution probability functions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 450(C), pages 473-485.
    2. Lisana B. Martinez & M. Belén Guercio & Aurelio Fernandez Bariviera & Antonio Terceño, 2018. "The impact of the financial crisis on the long-range memory of European corporate bond and stock markets," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 1-15, February.
    3. Bariviera, Aurelio F. & Guercio, M. Belén & Martinez, Lisana B. & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2016. "Libor at crossroads: Stochastic switching detection using information theory quantifiers," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 172-182.
    4. Fernandes, Leonardo H.S. & Araújo, Fernando H.A., 2020. "Taxonomy of commodities assets via complexity-entropy causality plane," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    5. Bariviera, Aurelio F. & Martín, María T. & Plastino, Angelo & Vampa, Victoria, 2016. "LIBOR troubles: Anomalous movements detection based on maximum entropy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 449(C), pages 401-407.
    6. Bariviera, Aurelio F. & Basgall, María José & Hasperué, Waldo & Naiouf, Marcelo, 2017. "Some stylized facts of the Bitcoin market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 484(C), pages 82-90.
    7. Aquino, Andre L.L. & Ramos, Heitor S. & Frery, Alejandro C. & Viana, Leonardo P. & Cavalcante, Tamer S.G. & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2017. "Characterization of electric load with Information Theory quantifiers," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 277-284.
    8. Eduarda T. C. Chagas & Marcelo Queiroz‐Oliveira & Osvaldo A. Rosso & Heitor S. Ramos & Cristopher G. S. Freitas & Alejandro C. Frery, 2022. "White Noise Test from Ordinal Patterns in the Entropy–Complexity Plane," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 90(2), pages 374-396, August.
    9. Argyroudis, George S. & Siokis, Fotios M., 2019. "Spillover effects of Great Recession on Hong-Kong’s Real Estate Market: An analysis based on Causality Plane and Tsallis Curves of Complexity–Entropy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 524(C), pages 576-586.
    10. Wang, Zhenpo & Hong, Jichao & Liu, Peng & Zhang, Lei, 2017. "Voltage fault diagnosis and prognosis of battery systems based on entropy and Z-score for electric vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 289-302.
    11. Zunino, Luciano & Bariviera, Aurelio F. & Guercio, M. Belén & Martinez, Lisana B. & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2016. "Monitoring the informational efficiency of European corporate bond markets with dynamical permutation min-entropy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 456(C), pages 1-9.
    12. Rodríguez-López, Araceli & Fernández-Abascal, Hermenegildo & Maté-García, Jorge-Julio & Rodríguez-Fernández, José-Miguel & Rojo-García, José-Luis & Sanz-Gómez, José-Antonio, 2021. "Evaluating Euribor Manipulation: Effects on Mortgage Borrowers," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    13. Siokis, Fotios M., 2018. "Credit market Jitters in the course of the financial crisis: A permutation entropy approach in measuring informational efficiency in financial assets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 499(C), pages 266-275.
    14. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Luciano Zunino & Osvaldo A. Rosso, 2018. "An analysis of high-frequency cryptocurrencies prices dynamics using permutation-information-theory quantifiers," Papers 1808.01926, arXiv.org.

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