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Stock Returns Under High Inflation and Interest Rates: Evidence from the Brazilian Market

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  • Rene Coppe Pimentel
  • Taufiq Choudhry

Abstract

We analyze the relationship of high inflation and interest rates with stock returns in Brazil from May 1986 to May 2011, during which Brazil experienced subperiods of both high inflation (May 1986-June 1994) and relative monetary stability (July 1994-May 2011). The result in the total period is dominated by high inflation volatility, and the findings suggest a bidirectional relationship between stock returns and inflation. During the high-inflation subperiod, interest rates are relevant to explain future changes in inflation and stock returns. Under low inflation, movements in interest rates are better anticipated by equity investors, suggesting higher market efficiency than in high-inflation circumstances.

Suggested Citation

  • Rene Coppe Pimentel & Taufiq Choudhry, 2014. "Stock Returns Under High Inflation and Interest Rates: Evidence from the Brazilian Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 71-92, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:50:y:2014:i:1:p:71-92
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    1. Akyurek, Cem & Kutan, Ali M. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2011. "Can inflation targeting regimes be effective in developing countries? The Turkish experience," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 343-355, October.
    2. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Adeolu O. Adewuyi & Olabanji B. Awodumi & David Roubaud, 2022. "Relationship between stock returns and inflation: New evidence from the US using wavelet and causality methods," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4515-4540, October.
    3. Aktürk, Halit, 2016. "Do stock returns provide a good hedge against inflation? An empirical assessment using Turkish data during periods of structural change," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 230-246.
    4. Samargandi, Nahla & Kutan, Ali M., 2016. "Private credit spillovers and economic growth: Evidence from BRICS countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 56-84.

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