Can forecasting performance be improved by considering the steady state? An application to Swedish inflation and interest rate
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1002/for.1041
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999.
"Forecasting inflation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Forecasting Inflation," NBER Working Papers 7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
- Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002. "Reply to the comments on 'Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 563-567, December.
- Hubrich, Kirstin, 2005.
"Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 119-136.
- Hubrich, Kirstin, 2003. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Working Paper Series 247, European Central Bank.
- Kirstin Hubrich, 2004. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 230, Society for Computational Economics.
- Robertson, John C & Tallman, Ellis W, 2001. "Improving Federal-Funds Rate Forecasts in VAR Models Used for Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 324-330, July.
- Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002.
"Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 507-531, December.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2001. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 01-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Tom Stark and Dean Croushore, 2001. "Forecasting with a Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 258, Society for Computational Economics.
- Perron, Pierre, 1989.
"The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
- Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-263, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Roberto S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "DMARIANO: RATS procedure to compute Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00055, Boston College Department of Economics.
- repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:5:p:1095-1112 is not listed on IDEAS
- Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995.
"Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates,"
Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688,
Elsevier.
- Ken Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, "undated". "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," Working Paper 32027, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
- Litterman, Robert B, 1986.
"Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
- Robert B. Litterman, 1985. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions five years of experience," Working Papers 274, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Inference in Vector Autoregressive Models with an Informative Prior on the Steady State," Working Paper Series 181, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Richard Luger, 2004. "Exact Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy with an Application to the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Staff Working Papers 04-2, Bank of Canada.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1984.
"The Real Interest Rate: A Multi-Country Empirical Study,"
Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 283-311, May.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1982. "The Real Interest Rate: A Multi-Country Empirical Study," NBER Working Papers 1047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Granger, Clive W. J. & Jeon, Yongil, 2003. "Comparing forecasts of inflation using time distance," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 339-349.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-282, June.
- Litterman, Robert, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions -- Five years of experience : Robert B. Litterman, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 (1986) 25-38," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 497-498.
- Clements, Michael P. & Galvao, Ana Beatriz, 2004. "A comparison of tests of nonlinear cointegration with application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 219-236.
- Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 25(Win), pages 2-11.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Karlsson, Sune, 2013.
"Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregression,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 791-897,
Elsevier.
- Karlsson, Sune, 2012. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2012:12, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Pär Österholm, 2010.
"Improving Unemployment Rate Forecasts Using Survey Data,"
Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 16-26, Spring.
- Österholm, Pär, 2009. "Improving Unemployment Rate Forecasts Using Survey Data," Working Papers 112, National Institute of Economic Research.
- Helge Berger & Pär Österholm, 2011.
"Does Money Growth Granger Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out‐of‐Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs,"
The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(276), pages 45-60, March.
- Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2007. "Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 2007:30, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
- Pär Österholm & Mr. Helge Berger, 2008. "Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs," IMF Working Papers 2008/053, International Monetary Fund.
- Lisandro Abrego & Pär Österholm, 2010.
"External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia: Insights from a Bayesian VAR Model,"
The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(12), pages 1788-1810, December.
- Pär Österholm & Mr. Lisandro Abrego, 2008. "External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia: Insights from A Bayesian VAR Model," IMF Working Papers 2008/046, International Monetary Fund.
- SENBETA, Sisay Regassa, 2012. "How important are external shocks in explaining growth in Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from a Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 2012010, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
- Rupa Duttagupta & N. Barrera, 2010. "The Impact of the Global Crisis on Canada—What Do Macro-Financial Linkages Tell Us?," IMF Working Papers 2010/005, International Monetary Fund.
- Helge Berger & Pär Österholm, 2011.
"Does Money Growth Granger Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out‐of‐Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs,"
The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(276), pages 45-60, March.
- Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2008. "Does money growth granger-cause inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from output-of-sample forecasts using Bayesian VARs," Discussion Papers 2008/10, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Par Osterholm, 2008. "A structural Bayesian VAR for model-based fan charts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(12), pages 1557-1569.
- Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär, 2010. "Forecasting inflation in an inflation-targeting regime: A role for informative steady-state priors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 248-264, April.
- Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008.
"Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications,"
Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Nov), pages 609-642.
- Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications," Working Papers 2008-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Jan-Erik Antipin & Farid Jimmy Boumediene & Pär Österholm, 2014.
"Forecasting Inflation Using Constant Gain Least Squares,"
Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1-2), pages 2-15, June.
- Antipin, Jan-Erik & Boumediene, Farid Jimmy & Österholm, Pär, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation Using Constant Gain Least Squares," Working Papers 126, National Institute of Economic Research.
- Croushore, D., 2002. "Comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 483-489, December.
- Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2019. "Steady‐state modeling and macroeconomic forecasting quality," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 285-314, March.
- P&aauml;r Österholm & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2008.
"The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America,"
IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(4), pages 595-623, December.
- Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Pär Österholm, 2007. "The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2007/176, International Monetary Fund.
- Rubaszek, Michal & Skrzypczynski, Pawel, 2008. "On the forecasting performance of a small-scale DSGE model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 498-512.
- Gregory Connor & Lisa R. Goldberg & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2010. "Portfolio Risk Analysis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9224.
- Arnold, Stephan & Auer, Benjamin R., 2015. "What do scientists know about inflation hedging?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 187-214.
- Duncan, Roberto & Martínez-García, Enrique, 2019.
"New perspectives on forecasting inflation in emerging market economies: An empirical assessment,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1008-1031.
- Roberto Duncan & Enrique Martínez García, 2018. "New Perspectives on Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Market Economies: An Empirical Assessment," Globalization Institute Working Papers 338, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Andrejs Bessonovs, 2015. "Suite of Latvia's GDP forecasting models," Working Papers 2015/01, Latvijas Banka.
- Österholm, Pär, 2012. "The limited usefulness of macroeconomic Bayesian VARs when estimating the probability of a US recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 76-86.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016.
"Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 375-390, July.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2012. "Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 8894, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrea CARRIERO & Todd E. CLARK & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2012. "Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/08, European University Institute.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Common drifting volatility in large Bayesian VARs," Working Papers (Old Series) 1206, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- O. De Bandt & E. Michaux & C. Bruneau & A. Flageollet, 2007.
"Forecasting inflation using economic indicators: the case of France,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1-22.
- Bruneau, C. & De Bandt, O. & Flageollet, A. & Michaux, E., 2003. "Forecasting Inflation using Economic Indicators: the Case of France," Working papers 101, Banque de France.
- Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "A linear benchmark for forecasting GDP growth and inflation?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 305-340.
- Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002.
"Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 507-531, December.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2001. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 01-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Tom Stark and Dean Croushore, 2001. "Forecasting with a Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 258, Society for Computational Economics.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009.
"Combining Forecasts from Nested Models,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 303-329, June.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 06-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Working Papers 2008-037, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Bekiros Stelios & Paccagnini Alessia, 2015.
"Estimating point and density forecasts for the US economy with a factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE model,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 107-136, April.
- Stelios D. Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2014. "Estimating point and density forecasts for the US economy with a factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE model," Open Access publications 10197/7588, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
- Lutz Kilian & Tao Zha, 2002. "Quantifying the uncertainty about the half-life of deviations from PPP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 107-125.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:27:y:2008:i:1:p:41-51. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing or Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966 .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.