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Monetary Policy Regimes, Expected Inflation, and the Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements

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  • V. Vance Roley
  • Carl E. Walsh

Abstract

This paper examines the response of the term structure of interest rates to weekly money announcements. Estimated responses for both the pre- and post-October 1979 periods are first presented. Then, two competing hypotheses involving the policy anticipations and expected inflation effects are formally specified and compared with the estimated responses. Both hypotheses are found to be consistent with the responses, but they have sharply different implications about the Federal Reserve's short-run monetary policy. By exploiting these different implications, additional empirical results focusing directly on the money stock process support the policy anticipations hypothesis.

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  • V. Vance Roley & Carl E. Walsh, 1985. "Monetary Policy Regimes, Expected Inflation, and the Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(Supplemen), pages 1011-1039.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:100:y:1985:i:supplement:p:1011-1039.
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    1. Grossman, Jacob, 1981. "The "Rationality" of Money Supply Expectations and the Short-Run Response of Interest Rates to Monetary Surprises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(4), pages 409-424, November.
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    5. Thomas Urich & Paul Wachtel, 1983. "The Structure of Expectations of the Weekly Money Supply Announcement," NBER Working Papers 1090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. V. Vance Roley & Rick Troll, 1983. "The impact of new economic information on the volatility of short-term interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 68(Feb), pages 3-15.
    7. V. Vance Roley, 1982. "The Response of Short-Term Interest Rates to Weekly Money Announcements," NBER Working Papers 1001, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Roley, V Vance, 1983. "The Response of Short-Term Interest Rates to Weekly Money Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 344-354, August.
    9. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-282, June.
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    11. Nichols, Donald A & Small, David H & Webster, Charles E, Jr, 1983. "Why Interest Rates Rise When an Unexpectedly Large Money Stock Is Announced," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 383-388, June.
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    13. John H. Makin, 1982. "Effects of Inflation Control Programs on Expected Real Interest Rates (Effets exercés par les programmes de lutte contre l'inflation sur les taux d'intérêt réels prévus) (Efectos de los programas," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 29(2), pages 204-232, June.
    14. V. Vance Roley, 1982. "Weekly money supply announcements and the volatility of short-term interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 67(Apr), pages 3-15.
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