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A long memory test of the long-run Fisher effect in the G7 countries

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  • Noor Ghazali
  • Shamshubariah Ramlee

Abstract

The belief that short-term interest rates respond positively to changes in price level, commonly known as the Fisher effect, are currently being investigated extensively by financial researchers. Over the long run the hypothesis implies the presence of an equilibrium relationship between interest rates and inflation. Early evidence favouring the Fisher effect is found not to be consistent in certain time periods and some countries. This paper examines the presence of the effect in the G7 countries. An ARFIMA (Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average) model is employed that generalizes the standard ARIMA by allowing fractional differencing. Based on the generalized ARFIMA estimation, the cointegration hypothesis between short-term interest rates and inflation cannot be supported. Interest rates in the G7 countries are not linked to inflation rate in the long run. The puzzling evidence rejecting the Fisher effect remains as the proposed relationship between interest rates and inflation is not real in these countries.

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  • Noor Ghazali & Shamshubariah Ramlee, 2003. "A long memory test of the long-run Fisher effect in the G7 countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(10), pages 763-769.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:13:y:2003:i:10:p:763-769
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100210149149
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    2. Westerlund, Joakim, 2005. "Panel Cointegration Tests of the Fisher Hypothesis," Working Papers 2005:10, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    3. R. Santos Alimi, 2014. "ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration: A Re-Examination of Augmented Fisher Hypothesis in an Open Economy," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(2), pages 103-114, June.
    4. Ismet Gocer & Serdar Ongan, 2020. "The Relationship between Inflation and Interest Rates in the UK: The Nonlinear ARDL Approach," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(3), pages 77-86.
    5. Mpho Bosupeng, 2015. "The Fisher Effect Using Differences in The Deterministic Term," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 5(4), pages 1031-1031.
    6. Joakim Westerlund, 2008. "Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 193-233.
    7. Tiwari Aviral Kumar & Cunado Juncal & Gupta Rangan & Wohar Mark E., 2019. "Are stock returns an inflation hedge for the UK? Evidence from a wavelet analysis using over three centuries of data," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(3), pages 1-17, June.
    8. Hafsa Hina, 2024. "Unveiling the Neo-Fisher Effect: Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 19(3), pages 387-407, December.
    9. Burak Güriş & Yaşar Yaşgül, 2015. "Does the Fisher hypothesis hold for the G7 countries? Evidence from ADL threshold cointegration test," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(6), pages 2549-2557, November.
    10. Keshab Bhattarai, 2008. "An empirical study of interest rate determination rules," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 327-343.
    11. NEIFAR, MALIKA & HACHICHA, Fatma, 2022. "GFH validity for Canada, UK, and Suisse stock markets: Evidence ‎from univariate and panel ARDL models," MPRA Paper 114613, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Eric Tymoigne, 2006. "Fisher's Theory of Interest Rates and the Notion of Real: A Critique," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_483, Levy Economics Institute.
    13. Marilena Furno, 2021. "Cointegration tests at the quantiles," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1087-1100, January.
    14. Sunal, Onur, 2022. "The efficiency of primary sovereign bond markets in Turkey: The so-called Fisher puzzle reconsidered," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 255-261.
    15. İsmet Göçer & Serdar Ongan, 2020. "Asymmetric Impacts of Inflation on the US Bond Rates and FED’s Pre-Emptive Policy," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 5(2), pages 143-157, December.
    16. Awomuse, Bernard O. & Alimi, Santos R., 2012. "The Relationship between Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation: New Evidence and Implication for Nigeria," MPRA Paper 49684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Bosupeng, Mpho, 2016. "On The Fisher Effect: A Review," MPRA Paper 77916, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    18. Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya & Savaş Kaptan & Metehan Cömert, 2019. "Interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates in fragile EMEs: A fresh look at the long-run interrelationships," Working Papers halshs-02095652, HAL.
    19. Serdar Ongan & Ismet Gocer, 2018. "Interest Rates, Inflation and Partial Fisher Effects under Nonlinearity: Evidence from Canada," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(4), pages 1957-1969.
    20. Saadet Kirbas Kasman & Adnan Kasman & Evrim Turgutlu, 2005. "Fisher Hypothesis Revisited: A Fractional Cointegration Analysis," Discussion Paper Series 05/04, Dokuz Eylül University, Faculty of Business, Department of Economics, revised 23 Nov 2005.
    21. Borja Balparda & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2017. "The fisher relationship in Nigeria," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(2), pages 343-353, April.

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