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Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence

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Cited by:

  1. Mecikovsky, Ariel Matias & Meier, Matthias, 2014. "Do plants freeze upon uncertainty shocks?," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100541, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  2. Craig S. Hakkio & Nicholas Sly, 2016. "Global Uncertainty in the Wake of Brexit," Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-4, September.
  3. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Nina Pavcnik, 2016. "The Effects of Trade Policy," NBER Working Papers 21957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Bo Lin & Liu Yuan & Bo Lu, 2023. "How Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect Supply Chain Efficiency: A Case Study of Listed Companies of Chinese Port Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-13, April.
  5. Csilla, Lakatos & Lars, Nilsson, 2015. "The EU-Korea free trade agreement: Anticipation, trade policy uncertainty and impact," DG TRADE Chief Economist Notes 2015-2, Directorate General for Trade, European Commission.
  6. Iván Alfaro & Nicholas Bloom & Xiaoji Lin, 2024. "The Finance Uncertainty Multiplier," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(2), pages 577-615.
  7. Handley, Kyle, 2014. "Exporting under trade policy uncertainty: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 50-66.
  8. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Gröschl, Jasmin & Heiland, Inga, 2022. "Complex Europe: Quantifying the cost of disintegration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
  9. António Afonso & José Alves & Sofia Monteiro, 2024. "Echoes of Instability: How Geopolitical Risks Shape Government Debt Holdings," CESifo Working Paper Series 11235, CESifo.
  10. Li, Xiao-Lin & Li, Jingya & Wang, Jia & Si, Deng-Kui, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty, political connection and government subsidy: Evidence from Chinese energy firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
  11. Khamis Hamed Al-Yahyaee & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Walid Mensi, 2020. "Tail dependence structures between economic policy uncertainty and foreign exchange markets: Nonparametric quantiles methods," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 161, pages 66-82.
  12. Benjamin Born & Gernot J Müller & Moritz Schularick & Petr Sedláček, 2019. "The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2722-2744.
  13. Michele Imbruno, 2019. "Importing under trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China," Post-Print hal-02171715, HAL.
  14. Lili Yan Ing & Olivier Cadot & Janine Walz, 2016. "Transparency in Non-tariff Measures: An International Comparison," Working Papers DP-2016-23, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
  15. Bloom, Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Mizen, Paul & Smietanka, Pawel & Thwaites, Gregory, 2019. "The impact of Brexit on UK firms," Bank of England working papers 818, Bank of England.
  16. Cristina Constantinescu & Aaditya Mattoo & Michele Ruta, 2020. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade and Global Value Chains: Some Facts, Many Questions," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 57(2), pages 285-308, September.
  17. Cezar, Rafael & Gigout, Timothée & Tripier, Fabien, 2020. "Cross-border investments and uncertainty: Firm-level evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
  18. Tarek A Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2019. "Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 2135-2202.
  19. Celik, Levent & Karabay, Bilgehan & McLaren, John, 2020. "Fast-track authority: A hold-up interpretation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
  20. Imbruno, Michele, 2019. "Importing under trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 806-826.
  21. Yang, Zhihao & Hong, Junjie, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and energy intensity: Evidence from Chinese industrial firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
  22. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2020. "Tariff Volatility and Tariff Policy in Developed and Developing Countries," EconStor Preprints 223302, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  23. Xiang, Jingjie & Li, Li, 2022. "Monetary policy uncertainty, debt financing cost and real economic activities: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1025-1044.
  24. Staiger, Robert W., 2020. "Comment on “Anti-lobbying gains from international agreements” by Giovanni Maggi," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 35-37.
  25. Dennis Novy & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Trade and Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 749-765, October.
  26. Gabor Békés & Lionel Fontagné & Balazs Murakozy & Vincent Vicard, 2015. "Shipment frequency of exporters and demand uncertainty: An inventory management approach," Working Papers hal-01315615, HAL.
  27. Handley, Kyle & Limão, Nuno & Ludema, Rodney D. & Yu, Zhi, 2024. "Firm input choice under trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
  28. William Ginn, 2022. "Climate Disasters and the Macroeconomy: Does State-Dependence Matter? Evidence for the US," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 141-161, March.
  29. Sonali Chowdhry & Gabriel Felbermayr, 2023. "Trade liberalization along the firm size distribution: The case of the EU‐South Korea FTA," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1751-1792, November.
  30. Yiping Sun & Xiangyi Li & Tengyuan Zhang & Jiawei Fu, 2022. "Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Exacerbate Environmental Pollution?—Evidence from Chinese Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-21, February.
  31. Gad, Mahmoud & Nikolaev, Valeri & Tahoun, Ahmed & van Lent, Laurence, 2024. "Firm-level political risk and credit markets," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2).
  32. Bree J. Lang & Pratish Patel, 2023. "Funding infrastructure under uncertainty: evidence from tax credit prices," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(3), pages 635-677, June.
  33. Matthew W. Clance & Giray Gozgor & Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau, 2019. "The Relationship between Economic Uncertainty and Corporate Tax Rates," Working Papers 201945, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  34. Ketan REDDY & Subash SASIDHARAN & Shandre Mugan THANGAVELU, 2024. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Impact Firm GVC Participation? Microdata Evidence from India," Working Papers DP-2024-23, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
  35. Nicolò Tamberi, 2024. "Export‐platform foreign direct investment and trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from brexit," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(361), pages 33-69, January.
  36. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
  37. Maria V. Sokolova, 2016. "Exchange Rates, International Trade and Growth: Re-Evaluation of Undervaluation," IHEID Working Papers 05-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  38. Li, Mengzhe & Lin, Qianru & Lan, Fei & Zhan, Zhimin & He, Zhongshi, 2023. "Trade policy uncertainty and financial investment: Evidence from Chinese energy firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  39. James R. Hines Jr. & Michael Keen, 2018. "Certain Effects of Uncertain Taxes," NBER Working Papers 25388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Sandra Sequeira, 2016. "Corruption, Trade Costs, and Gains from Tariff Liberalization: Evidence from Southern Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 3029-3063, October.
  41. Sangyup Choi & Myungkyu Shim, 2019. "Financial vs. Policy Uncertainty in Emerging Market Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 297-318, April.
  42. Cali,Massimiliano & Le Moglie,Marco & Presidente,Giorgio, 2021. "Gain without Pain ? Non-Tariff Measures, Plants’ Productivity and Markups," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9654, The World Bank.
  43. Rodrigue, Joel & Shi, Qing & Tan, Yong, 2024. "Trade policy uncertainty & resource misallocation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
  44. Valeria Groppo & Roberta Piermartini, 2014. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and the WTO," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1437, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  45. Mau, Karsten, 2017. "US policy spillover(?) – China’s accession to the WTO and rising exports to the EU," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 169-188.
  46. Crowley, Meredith & Meng, Ning & Song, Huasheng, 2018. "Tariff scares: Trade policy uncertainty and foreign market entry by Chinese firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 96-115.
  47. Eduardo Gutiérrez & Aitor Lacuesta & César Martín Machuca, 2021. "Brexit: Trade diversion due to trade policy uncertainty," Working Papers 2140, Banco de España.
  48. Machin, Stephen & Costa, Rui & Dhingra, Swati, 2019. "Trade and Worker Deskilling," CEPR Discussion Papers 13768, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  49. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
  50. Anca D. Cristea & Anna Miromanova, 2022. "Firm‐level trade effects of WTO accession: Evidence from Russia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 237-281, February.
  51. Jane Falkingham & Corrado Giulietti & Jackline Wahba & Chuhong Wang, 2021. "The impact of Brexit on international students’ return intentions," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(2), pages 139-171, March.
  52. Dutt, Pushan & Mihov, Ilian & Van Zandt, Timothy, 2013. "The effect of WTO on the extensive and the intensive margins of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 204-219.
  53. Hoekman, Bernard, 2011. "The WTO and the Doha Round: Walking on Two Legs," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 68, pages 1-6, October.
  54. Deniz AYTAÇ, 2023. "Global Economic Policy Uncertainty and Energy Prices: A Markov-Switching VAR Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 40-61, October.
  55. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A., 2021. "How COVID-19 drives connectedness among commodity and financial markets: Evidence from TVP-VAR and causality-in-quantiles techniques," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
  56. Kyle Bagwell & Chad P. Bown & Robert W. Staiger, 2016. "Is the WTO Passé?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1125-1231, December.
  57. Chad P. Bown, 2011. "Taking Stock of Antidumping, Safeguards and Countervailing Duties, 1990–2009," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(12), pages 1955-1998, December.
  58. Armando Silva & Oscar Afonso & Ana Africano, 2013. "Economic performance and international trade engagement: the case of Portuguese manufacturing firms," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 521-547, December.
  59. Peter H. Egger & Johannes Schwarzer, 2020. "The effects of services trade policies. Introduction to the special issue," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(11), pages 2826-2829, November.
  60. Benjamin Jung, 2023. "The Trade Effects of the EU-South Korea Free Trade Agreement: Heterogeneity Across Time, Country Pairs, and Directions of Trade within Country Pairs," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 617-656, July.
  61. Wang, Hui & Shen, Huayu & Tang, Xiaoyi & Wu, Zuofeng & Ma, Shuming, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and firm risk taking," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 351-364.
  62. Haoyuan Ding & Bo Pu & Tong Qi & Kai Wang, 2022. "Valuation effects of the US–China trade war: The effects of foreign managers and foreign exposure," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 662-683, July.
  63. Emanuel Ornelas, 2016. "Special and Differential Treatment for Developing Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 5823, CESifo.
  64. Maria V. Sokolova, 2016. "Trade Re(Im)Balanced: The Role of Regional Trade Agreements," IHEID Working Papers 06-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  65. Federico Esposito, 2019. "Demand Risk and Diversification through Trade," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0833, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  66. Chad P. Bown, 2014. "Trade Policy Flexibilities and Turkey: Tariffs, Anti-dumping, Safeguards and WTO Dispute Settlement," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 193-218, February.
  67. Gábor Békés & Lionel Fontagné & Balázs Muraközy & Vincent Vicard, 2017. "Shipment frequency of exporters and demand uncertainty," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(4), pages 779-807, November.
  68. Haoyuan Ding & Kees G. Koedijk & Tong Qi & Yanqing Shen, 2022. "U.S.–China trade war and corporate reallocation: Evidence from Chinese listed companies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(12), pages 3907-3932, December.
  69. Liu, Yulin & Wang, Junbo & Wen, Fenghua & Wu, Chunchi, 2024. "Climate policy uncertainty and bank systemic risk: A creative destruction perspective," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
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  71. Sharma, Chandan & Paramati, Sudharshan Reddy, 2021. "Does economic policy uncertainty dampen imports? Commodity-level evidence from India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 139-149.
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  73. Nikita Lopatin, 2020. "Trade Agreements, Uncertainty and Capital Structure of Exporters," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 235-243.
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