Foreign uncertainty and domestic exporter dynamics

This paper analyzes the impact of foreign uncertainty on exporter dynamics. Country-industry level exporter data from the Exporter Dynamics Database allows us to exploit the effects of uncertainty on heterogeneous groups of exporters. Our findings show that high levels of uncertainty are negatively associated with exports in both extensive and intensive margins, but the effects vary across different exporters. An increase in uncertainty is also associated with a more concentrated market of exporters and larger market shares of big exporters. Finally, we show that firm exit rates increase with uncertainty.