IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cge/wacage/280.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Growth Effects of EU Membership for the UK: a Review of the Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Crafts, Nicholas

    (University of Warwick)

Abstract

This paper reviews the literature on the implications of EU membership for the UK. It concludes that membership has raised UK income levels appreciably and by much more than 1970s’ proponents of EU entry predicted. These positive effects stem from the EU’s success in increasing trade and the impact of stronger competition on UK productivity. The economic benefits of EU membership for the UK have far exceeded the costs of budgetary transfers and regulation. Brexit is risky and its impact would depend heavily on the terms negotiated and the use made of the policy space that it freed up.

Suggested Citation

  • Crafts, Nicholas, 2016. "The Growth Effects of EU Membership for the UK: a Review of the Evidence," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 280, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:280
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/280-2016_crafts.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harald Badinger, 2005. "Growth Effects of Economic Integration: Evidence from the EU Member States," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(1), pages 50-78, April.
    2. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    3. Antoni Estevadeordal & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "Is the Washington Consensus Dead? Growth, Openness, and the Great Liberalization, 1970s–2000s," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1669-1690, December.
    4. Bas Straathof & Gert Jan Linders & Arjan Lejour & Jan Möhlmann, 2008. "The internal market and the Dutch economy: implications for trade and economic growth," CPB Document 168, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. Berger, Helge & Nitsch, Volker, 2008. "Zooming out: The trade effect of the euro in historical perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1244-1260, December.
    6. James Feyrer, 2019. "Trade and Income—Exploiting Time Series in Geography," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 1-35, October.
    7. Campos, Nauro F. & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Moretti, Luigi, 2014. "Economic Growth and Political Integration: Estimating the Benefits from Membership in the European Union Using the Synthetic Counterfactuals Method," IZA Discussion Papers 8162, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 4, pages 89-122, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Ottaviano, Gianmarco & Pessoa, João Paulo & Sampson, Thomas & Van Reenen, John, 2014. "The costs and benefits of leaving the EU," CFS Working Paper Series 472, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    10. Christian Dustmann & Tommaso Frattini, 2014. "The Fiscal Effects of Immigration to the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(580), pages 593-643, November.
    11. Machin, S. & Wadhwani, S., 1989. "The Effects Of Unions On Organizational Change, Investment And Employment: Evidence From Wirs," Papers 355, London School of Economics - Centre for Labour Economics.
    12. Nickell, Stephen & Nicolitsas, Daphne & Dryden, Neil, 1997. "What makes firms perform well?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 783-796, April.
    13. Scott L. Baier & Jeffrey H. Bergstrand & Peter Egger & Patrick A. McLaughlin, 2008. "Do Economic Integration Agreements Actually Work? Issues in Understanding the Causes and Consequences of the Growth of Regionalism," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 461-497, April.
    14. Richard Baldwin, 1989. "The Growth Effects of 1992," NBER Working Papers 3119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Nicholas Crafts, 2006. "Regulation and Productivity Performance," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 22(2), pages 186-202, Summer.
    16. Richard Harris & Catherine Robinson, 2004. "Productivity Impacts and Spillovers from Foreign Ownership in the United Kingdom," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 187(1), pages 58-75, January.
    17. Hitiris, Theodore, 1978. "Effective Protection and Economic Performance in UK Manufacturing Industry, 1963 and 1968," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(349), pages 107-120, March.
    18. Jonathan E. Haskel & Sonia C. Pereira & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2007. "Does Inward Foreign Direct Investment Boost the Productivity of Domestic Firms?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(3), pages 482-496, August.
    19. Richard Baldwin & Virginia DiNino & Lionel Fontagné & Roberto A. De Santis & Daria Taglioni, 2008. "Study on the Impact of the Euro on Trade and Foreign Direct Investment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 321, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    20. Sebastian Barnes & Romain Bouis & Philippe Briard & Sean Dougherty & Mehmet Eris, 2013. "The GDP Impact of Reform: A Simple Simulation Framework," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 834, OECD Publishing.
    21. Pierre Boulanger & George Philippidis, 2015. "The End of a Romance? A Note on the Quantitative Impacts of a ‘Brexit’ from the EU," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 832-842, September.
    22. Michael Gasiorek & Alasdair Smith & Anthony J. Venables, 2002. "The Accession of the UK to the EC: A Welfare Analysis," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 425-447, September.
    23. L. Alan Winters, 1987. "Britain in Europe: a Survey of Quantitative Trade Studies," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 315-335, June.
    24. Barrell, Ray & Pain, Nigel, 1998. "Real Exchange Rates, Agglomerations, and Irreversibilities: Macroeconomic Policy and FDI in EMU," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 14(3), pages 152-167, Autumn.
    25. Ennew, Christine & Greenaway, David & Reed, Geoffrey, 1990. "Further Evidence on Effective Tariffs and Effective Protection in the UK," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(1), pages 69-78, February.
    26. Gregg, Paul & Machin, Stephen & Metcalf, David, 1993. "Signals and Cycles? Productivity Growth and Changes in Union Status in British Companies, 1984-9," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(419), pages 894-907, July.
    27. Rachel Griffith, 2001. "Product market competition, efficiency and agency costs: an empirical analysis," IFS Working Papers W01/12, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    28. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Campos, Nauro & Moretti, Luigi, 2014. "Economic Growth and Political Integration: Estimating the Benefits from Membership in the European Union Using the Synthetic Co," CEPR Discussion Papers 9968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    29. Mr. Carlo Cottarelli & Mr. Julio Escolano, 2004. "Assessing the Assessment: A Critical Look At the June 2003 Assessment of the United Kingdom'S Five Tests for Euro Entry," IMF Working Papers 2004/116, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Marcus H. Miller & John E. Spencer, 1977. "The Static Economic Effects of the UK joining the EEC: A General Equilibrium Approach," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 44(1), pages 71-93.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Simionescu, Mihaela, 2017. "The Influence of Brexit on the Foreign Direct Investment Projects and Inflows in the United Kingdom," GLO Discussion Paper Series 68, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Muhammad Ibrahim Shah, 2021. "Investigating the Role of Regional Economic Integration on Growth: Fresh Insights from South Asia," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 13(1), pages 35-57, January.
    3. Crafts, Nicholas, 2017. "The Postwar British Productivity Failure," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1142, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    4. Sascha O Becker & Thiemo Fetzer & Dennis Novy, 2017. "Who voted for Brexit? A comprehensive district-level analysis," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 601-650.
    5. Iain Begg, 2017. "Making Sense of the Costs and Benefits of Brexit: Challenges for Economists," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 45(3), pages 299-315, September.
    6. Campos, Nauro F. & Eichenauer, Vera Z. & Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 2020. "Close encounters of the European kind: Economic integration, sectoral heterogeneity and structural reforms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    7. Swati Dhingra & Hanwei Huang & Gianmarco Ottaviano & João Paulo Pessoa & Thomas Sampson & John Van Reenen, 2017. "The costs and benefits of leaving the EU: trade effects," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 651-705.
    8. Ansgar Belke & Irina Dubova & Thomas Osowski, 2018. "Policy uncertainty and international financial markets: the case of Brexit," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(34-35), pages 3752-3770, July.
    9. Victor Suslov & Naimdzhon Ibragimov & Larisa Mel'nikova, 2018. "Coalition Analysis and Effects of Regional Integration," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 1131-1144.
    10. João Alves Bento & António Portugal Duarte, 2020. "Brexit: An Exploratory Analysis of the Macroeconomic Effects on the British Economy," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 67(4), pages 69-85, December.
    11. Begg, Iain, 2017. "Making sense of the costs and benefits of Brexit: challenges for economists," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 83587, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Xiaoqing An & William A. Barnett & Xue Wang & Qingyuan Wu, 2023. "Brexit spillovers: how economic policy uncertainty affects foreign direct investment and international trade," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(16), pages 1913-1932, November.
    13. Thomas Sampson, 2017. "Brexit: The Economics of International Disintegration," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 163-184, Fall.
    14. William Allen, 2018. "Evaluating Economic Policy Ideas Recently Offered to the Labour Party," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Policy Papers 08, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    15. Ken Coutts & Graham Gudgin & Jordan Buchanan, 2018. "How the Economics Profession Got It Wrong on Brexit," Working Papers wp493, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.
    16. Raffaele Giammetti, 2019. "Tariffs, Domestic Import Substitution and Trade Diversion in Input-Output Production Networks: how to deal with Brexit," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 152, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    17. Halmai, Péter, 2020. "A dezintegráció gazdaságtana. A brexit esete [The economics of disintegration. The case of Brexit]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 837-877.
    18. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "United Kingdom: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/169, International Monetary Fund.
    19. John Van Reenen, 2016. "Brexit's Long-Run Effects on the U.K. Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 367-383.
    20. Giammetti, Raffaele, 2019. "Tariffs, Domestic Import Substitution and Trade Diversion in Input-Output Production Networks: how to deal with Brexit," MPRA Paper 92835, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Sae Won Chung & Yongmin Kim, 2019. "The Truth behind the Brexit Vote: Clearing away Illusion after Two Years of Confusion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-16, September.
    22. Petros E. Ioannatos, 2021. "Brexit or Euro for the UK? Evidence from Panel Data," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(1), pages 117-138, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Halmai, Péter, 2020. "A dezintegráció gazdaságtana. A brexit esete [The economics of disintegration. The case of Brexit]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 837-877.
    2. Crafts, Nicholas & O’Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj, 2014. "Twentieth Century Growth*This research has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) / ERC grant agreement no. 249546.," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 263-346, Elsevier.
    3. Crafts, Nicholas, 2012. "Western Europe’s Growth Prospects: an Historical Perspective," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 71, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    4. Crafts, Nicholas, 2012. "Creating Competitive Advantage: Policy Lessons from History," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 91, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    5. Swati Dhingra & Hanwei Huang & Gianmarco Ottaviano & João Paulo Pessoa & Thomas Sampson & John Van Reenen, 2017. "The costs and benefits of leaving the EU: trade effects," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 651-705.
    6. Nicholas Crafts, 2013. "Returning to Growth: Policy Lessons from History," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 34(2), pages 255-282, June.
    7. Crafts, Nicholas, 2012. "British relative economic decline revisited: The role of competition," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 17-29.
    8. Crafts, Nicholas, 2011. "British Relative Economic Decline Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 8384, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "United Kingdom: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/169, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2017. "The Economic Impact of Brexit: Evidence from Modelling Free Trade Agreements," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 45(3), pages 317-331, September.
    11. Nauro Campos & Fabrizio Coricelli & Luigi Moretti, 2015. "Norwegian Rhapsody? The Political Economy Benefits of Regional Integration," Working Papers halshs-01267252, HAL.
    12. Piotr Gabrielczak & Tomasz Serwach, 2017. "The impact of the euro adoption on the complexity of goods in Slovenian exports," Lodz Economics Working Papers 3/2017, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    13. Piotr Gabrielczak & Tomasz Serwach, 2017. "Does the euro increase the complexity of exported goods? The case of Estonia," Lodz Economics Working Papers 4/2017, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    14. Alali, Walid Y. & Ellalee, Haider, 2019. "Production and Foreign Investment Affected by Brexit," EconStor Preprints 274652, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    15. John Van Reenen, 2016. "Brexit's Long-Run Effects on the U.K. Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 367-383.
    16. Randolph Luca Bruno & Nauro Ferreira Campos & Saul Estrin, 2021. "The Effect on Foreign Direct Investment of Membership in the European Union," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 802-821, July.
    17. Thomas Sampson, 2017. "Brexit: The Economics of International Disintegration," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 163-184, Fall.
    18. Hagemejer Jan & Michałek Jan J. & Svatko Pavel, 2021. "Economic impact of the EU Eastern enlargement on New Member States revisited: The role of economic institutions," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 8(55), pages 126-143, January.
    19. André Sapir, 2011. "European Integration at the Crossroads: A Review Essay on the 50th Anniversary of Bela Balassa's Theory of Economic Integration," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1200-1229, December.
    20. Klaudijo Klaser, 2020. "A Theory of Justice of John Rawls as Basis for European Fiscal Union," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 11(1-2).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; competition; income levels; SingleMarket; trade costs. JEL Classification: F15; N14; N74.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:280. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jane Snape (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dewaruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.