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Firm-level political risk and credit markets

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  • Gad, Mahmoud
  • Nikolaev, Valeri
  • Tahoun, Ahmed
  • van Lent, Laurence

Abstract

We take advantage of a new composite measure of political risk (Hassan et al., 2019) to study the effects of firm-level political risk on private debt markets. First, we use panel data tests and exploit the redrawing of US congressional districts to uncover plausibly exogenous variation in firm-level political risk. We show that borrowers’ political risk is linked to interest rates set by lenders. Second, we test for the transmission of political risk from lenders to borrowers. We predict and find that lender-level political risk propagates to borrowers through lending relationships. Our analysis allows for endogenous matching between lenders and borrowers and indicates the presence of network effects in diffusing political risk throughout the economy. Finally, we introduce new text-based methods to analyze the distinct sources of political risk to lenders and borrowers and provide textual evidence of the transmission of political risk from lenders to borrowers.

Suggested Citation

  • Gad, Mahmoud & Nikolaev, Valeri & Tahoun, Ahmed & van Lent, Laurence, 2024. "Firm-level political risk and credit markets," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaecon:v:77:y:2024:i:2:s0165410123000666
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2023.101642
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit markets; Political risk; Financial institutions; Earnings calls;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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