IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/era/wpaper/dp-2024-23.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Impact Firm GVC Participation? Microdata Evidence from India

Author

Listed:
  • Ketan REDDY

    (Indian Institute of Management Raipur, India)

  • Subash SASIDHARAN

    (Indian Institute of Technology, Madras, Chennai, India.)

  • Shandre Mugan THANGAVELU

    (Sunway University,The University of Adelaide)

Abstract

In this study, we examine the implications of economic policy uncertainty on global value chain (GVC) participation and the integration of Indian manufacturing firms using firm-level data. Using panel data from 2004 to 2021, we find that economic policy uncertainty (EPU) impedes GVC participation and firm integration. Further, we find that the impact of EPU on GVC participation operates through the financial constraint channel with highly leveraged and low-liquidity firms. Using survival analysis, we also highlight that higher EPU results in higher exit from GVCs and reduces entry into GVCs.

Suggested Citation

  • Ketan REDDY & Subash SASIDHARAN & Shandre Mugan THANGAVELU, 2024. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Impact Firm GVC Participation? Microdata Evidence from India," Working Papers DP-2024-23, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
  • Handle: RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2024-23
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.eria.org/uploads/Does-Economic-Policy-Uncertainty-Impact-Firm-GVC-Participation.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Volpe Martincus, Christian & Carballo, Jerónimo, 2008. "Is export promotion effective in developing countries? Firm-level evidence on the intensive and the extensive margins of exports," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 89-106, September.
    2. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2019. "Financial Frictions and Fluctuations in Volatility," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(5), pages 2049-2103.
    3. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 5, pages 123-175, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Dennis Novy & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Trade and Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 749-765, October.
    5. Stiebale, Joel & Vencappa, Dev, 2018. "Acquisitions, markups, efficiency, and product quality: Evidence from India," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 70-87.
    6. Crowley, Meredith & Meng, Ning & Song, Huasheng, 2018. "Tariff scares: Trade policy uncertainty and foreign market entry by Chinese firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 96-115.
    7. Robert Krol, 2014. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 241-256, June.
    8. Wang, Yizhong & Chen, Carl R. & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 227-243.
    9. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 4, pages 89-122, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    11. Caroline Jardet & Cristina Jude & Menzie Chinn, 2023. "Foreign direct investment under uncertainty evidence from a large panel of countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 854-885, August.
    12. Cristina Constantinescu & Aaditya Mattoo & Michele Ruta, 2020. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade and Global Value Chains: Some Facts, Many Questions," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 57(2), pages 285-308, September.
    13. Ketan Reddy & Subash Sasidharan, 2021. "Financial constraints and global value chain participation: Firm-level evidence from India," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 739-765, July.
    14. Daniel A. Ackerberg & Kevin Caves & Garth Frazer, 2015. "Identification Properties of Recent Production Function Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 2411-2451, November.
    15. Ketan Reddy & Subash Sasidharan & Shandre Thangavelu, 2023. "Does servicification of manufacturing increase the GVC activities of firms? Case of India," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 153-181, January.
    16. Meihong Dai & Haiyang Liu & Lingtao Lin, 2020. "How innovation impacts firms' export survival: Does export mode matter?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 81-113, January.
    17. Hummels, David & Ishii, Jun & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-96, June.
    18. Ilke Van Beveren, 2012. "Total Factor Productivity Estimation: A Practical Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 98-128, February.
    19. Kumar, Abhishek & Mallick, Sushanta & Sinha, Apra, 2021. "Is uncertainty the same everywhere? Advanced versus emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    20. Gopalan, Sasidaran & Reddy, Ketan & Sasidharan, Subash, 2022. "Does digitalization spur global value chain participation? Firm-level evidence from emerging markets," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sharma, Chandan & Paramati, Sudharshan Reddy, 2021. "Does economic policy uncertainty dampen imports? Commodity-level evidence from India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 139-149.
    2. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Duration of WTO Membership and Investment-Oriented Remittances Flows," EconStor Preprints 251274, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    3. Bianconi, Marcelo & Esposito, Federico & Sammon, Marco, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    4. Li, Xiaogang, 2020. "Innovation, market valuations, policy uncertainty and trade: Theory and evidence," ISU General Staff Papers 202001010800009179, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Yang, Zhihao & Hong, Junjie, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and energy intensity: Evidence from Chinese industrial firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    6. Patrizia Casadei & Simona Iammarino, 2021. "Trade policy shocks in the UK textile and apparel value chain: Firm perceptions of Brexit uncertainty," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(2), pages 262-285, June.
    7. Bloom, Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Mizen, Paul & Smietanka, Pawel & Thwaites, Gregory, 2019. "The impact of Brexit on UK firms," Bank of England working papers 818, Bank of England.
    8. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Duration of membership in the world trade organization and investment-oriented remittances inflows," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 258-277.
    9. Mingyue Fang & Rui Ruan, 2023. "State‐owned Enterprises in China as Macroeconomic Stabilizers: Their Special Function in Times of Economic Policy Uncertainty," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(5), pages 87-115, September.
    10. Xiaosong Wang & Huan Wu & Le Li & Lu Liu, 2022. "Uncertainty, GVC participation and the export of Chinese firms," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 634-661, July.
    11. Yin, Doudou & Si, Deng-Kui & Wang, Yun, 2024. "How does corporate investment respond to trade policy uncertainty in China? The role of political connections," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1429-1445.
    12. Cristina Constantinescu & Aaditya Mattoo & Michele Ruta, 2020. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade and Global Value Chains: Some Facts, Many Questions," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 57(2), pages 285-308, September.
    13. Hu, Debao & Lu, Jingming & Zhao, Sibo, 2024. "Does trade policy uncertainty increase commercial banks’ risk-taking? Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 532-551.
    14. Alessandria, George & Khan, Shafaat Yar & Khederlarian, Armen, 2024. "Taking stock of trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China’s pre-WTO accession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    15. Yu, Mingzhe & Fan, Jiachuan & Wang, Haijun & Wang, Jie, 2023. "US trade policy uncertainty on Chinese agricultural imports and exports: An aggregate and product-level analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 70-83.
    16. Chris Muris & Horst Raff & Nicolas Schmitt & Frank Stähler, 2023. "Inventory, Sourcing, and the Effects of Trade Costs: Theory and Empirical Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 10253, CESifo.
    17. Qianlong Ma & Bokun Hei & Guangchen Li, 2024. "Does economic policy uncertainty shorten the loan term structure? Evidence from China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1-25, August.
    18. Si, Deng-Kui & Zhuang, Jiali & Ge, Xinyu & Yu, Yong, 2024. "The nexus between trade policy uncertainty and corporate financialization: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    19. Reddy, Ketan & Sasidharan, Subash, 2024. "Global value chains, productivity and markup: Evidence from India," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 250-271.
    20. Handley, Kyle & Limão, Nuno & Ludema, Rodney D. & Yu, Zhi, 2024. "Firm input choice under trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic policy uncertainty; GVC participation; Manufacturing firms;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2024-23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ranti Amelia (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eriadid.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.