IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v19y2022i4p2150-d749013.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Exacerbate Environmental Pollution?—Evidence from Chinese Cities

Author

Listed:
  • Yiping Sun

    (School of Business Administration, Hubei University of Economics, Wuhan 430205, China)

  • Xiangyi Li

    (School of Economics and Management, Hubei University of Technology, Wuhan 430068, China)

  • Tengyuan Zhang

    (School of Business Administration, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073, China)

  • Jiawei Fu

    (School of Business Administration, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073, China)

Abstract

Although the relationship between trade and environment has been widely discussed in past studies, trade policy has been in a state of continuous change in recent years. Previous studies have focused on the impact of trade opening or liberalization on the environment, ignoring discussion of the dynamic changes of trade policy. Therefore, it is very important to explore the connection between trade policy changes and environmental pollution for future environmental protection. In order to realize the in-depth study of this mechanism, the paper will try to solve the following three problems: (1) What is the relationship between change in trade policy uncertainty and China’s environmental pollution? (2) What is the mechanism by which trade uncertainty changes environmental pollution? (3) Due to China’s vast territory and regional differences, will changes in trade policy uncertainty have heterogeneous effects due to regional differences? To solve these problems, based on China’s accession to the WTO at the end of 2001, this paper, for the first time, uses PM 2.5 concentration data of 246 prefecture-level cities in China to explore the impact of trade policy uncertainty on China’s environmental pollution, then we make an in-depth analysis of the impact path and heterogeneity of urban spatial distribution and city size. We found that, after China’s accession to the WTO, the growth rate of PM 2.5 concentration reduced in cities with lower trade policy uncertainty and the inhibition effect was different due to the spatial distribution of city size. A further mechanism test shows that reduction in trade policy uncertainty can improve environmental pollution through industrial, structural and technological effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Yiping Sun & Xiangyi Li & Tengyuan Zhang & Jiawei Fu, 2022. "Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Exacerbate Environmental Pollution?—Evidence from Chinese Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-21, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:4:p:2150-:d:749013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/4/2150/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/4/2150/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chichilnisky, Graciela, 1994. "North-South Trade and the Global Environment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 851-874, September.
    2. Caldara, Dario & Iacoviello, Matteo & Molligo, Patrick & Prestipino, Andrea & Raffo, Andrea, 2020. "The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 38-59.
    3. McAusland, Carol, 2008. "Trade, politics, and the environment: Tailpipe vs. smokestack," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 52-71, January.
    4. Fei Fan & Shangze Dai & Keke Zhang & Haiqian Ke, 2021. "Innovation agglomeration and urban hierarchy: evidence from Chinese cities," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(54), pages 6300-6318, November.
    5. Impullitti, Giammario & Akcigit, Ufuk & Ates, Sina T., 2018. "Innovation and Trade Policy in a Globalized World," CEPR Discussion Papers 15804, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Valeria Groppo & Roberta Piermartini, 2014. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and the WTO," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1437, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Fei Fan & Huan Lian & Song Wang, 2020. "Can regional collaborative innovation improve innovation efficiency? An empirical study of Chinese cities," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 440-463, March.
    8. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 5, pages 123-175, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Liu, Qing & Qiu, Larry D., 2016. "Intermediate input imports and innovations: Evidence from Chinese firms' patent filings," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 166-183.
    10. Grossman, G.M & Krueger, A.B., 1991. "Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement," Papers 158, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
    11. Cui, Lian-Biao & Peng, Pan & Zhu, Lei, 2015. "Embodied energy, export policy adjustment and China's sustainable development: A multi-regional input-output analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 457-467.
    12. Beladi, Hamid & Oladi, Reza, 2011. "Does trade liberalization increase global pollution?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 172-178, January.
    13. Yu, Jian & Shi, Xunpeng & Guo, Dongmei & Yang, Longjian, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and firm carbon emissions: Evidence using a China provincial EPU index," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    14. José de Sousa & Laura Hering & Sandra Poncet, 2015. "Has trade openness reduced pollution in China?," Working Papers 2015-11, CEPII research center.
    15. Jie Zhang & Yinxiao Qu & Yun Zhang & Xiuzhen Li & Xiao Miao, 2019. "Effects of FDI on the Efficiency of Government Expenditure on Environmental Protection Under Fiscal Decentralization: A Spatial Econometric Analysis for China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-19, July.
    16. Baek, Jungho & Cho, Yongsung & Koo, Won W., 2009. "The environmental consequences of globalization: A country-specific time-series analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(8-9), pages 2255-2264, June.
    17. Pierce, Justin R. & Schott, Peter K., 2018. "Investment responses to trade liberalization: Evidence from U.S. industries and establishments," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 203-222.
    18. Feng, Ling & Li, Zhiyuan & Swenson, Deborah L., 2017. "Trade policy uncertainty and exports: Evidence from China's WTO accession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 20-36.
    19. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle.
    20. Mary Amiti & Jozef Konings, 2007. "Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs, and Productivity: Evidence from Indonesia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1611-1638, December.
    21. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 4, pages 89-122, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    22. Song Wang & Mengyuan Jia & Yahui Zhou & Fei Fan, 2020. "Impacts of changing urban form on ecological efficiency in China: a comparison between urban agglomerations and administrative areas," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 63(10), pages 1834-1856, August.
    23. Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2016. "The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1632-1662, July.
    24. Handley, Kyle, 2014. "Exporting under trade policy uncertainty: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 50-66.
    25. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    26. Michaël Aklin, 2016. "Re-exploring the Trade and Environment Nexus Through the Diffusion of Pollution," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 64(4), pages 663-682, August.
    27. Lin, Faqin, 2017. "Trade openness and air pollution: City-level empirical evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 78-88.
    28. Yi Lu Jr. & Linhui Yu Jr., 2015. "Trade Liberalization and Markup Dispersion: Evidence from China's WTO Accession," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 221-253, October.
    29. Li, Xiao-Lin & Li, Jingya & Wang, Jia & Si, Deng-Kui, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty, political connection and government subsidy: Evidence from Chinese energy firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    30. Osnago, Alberto & Piermartini, Roberta & Rocha, Nadia, 2015. "Trade policy uncertainty as barrier to trade," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2015-05, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    31. Managi, Shunsuke & Hibiki, Akira & Tsurumi, Tetsuya, 2009. "Does trade openness improve environmental quality?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 346-363, November.
    32. Werner Antweiler & Brian R. Copeland & M. Scott Taylor, 2001. "Is Free Trade Good for the Environment?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 877-908, September.
    33. Le, Thai-Ha & Chang, Youngho & Park, Donghyun, 2016. "Trade openness and environmental quality: International evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 45-55.
    34. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 2005. "Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting Out the Causality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(1), pages 85-91, February.
    35. Liu, Qing & Ma, Hong, 2020. "Trade policy uncertainty and innovation: Firm level evidence from China’s WTO accession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    36. Song Wang & Jiexin Wang & Chenqi Wei & Xueli Wang & Fei Fan, 2021. "Collaborative innovation efficiency: From within cities to between cities—Empirical analysis based on innovative cities in China," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 1330-1360, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Shubin & Zhao, Erlong & Razzaq, Hafiz Kashif, 2022. "Dynamic role of renewable energy efficiency, natural resources, and climate technologies in realizing environmental sustainability: Implications for China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 1095-1104.
    2. Chien-Chiang Lee & Farzan Yahya, 2024. "Have Dynamic Spillovers and the Connectedness of Trade Policy Uncertainty Changed During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Sino-US Trade Frictions?," Working Papers DP-2023-35, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    3. Xi, Yanle & Zhang, Liang & Zhou, Yuxin & Wu, Lamei, 2024. "Trade policy uncertainty and firm-level pollution emissions: Evidence from China's accession to the WTO," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Duration of WTO Membership and Investment-Oriented Remittances Flows," EconStor Preprints 251274, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Yiping Sun & Chengjun Wu & Xiaoming Zhu & Pingguan Bian, 2022. "China’s Accession to the WTO as a Shock to Residents’ Health—A Difference-in-Difference Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-18, November.
    3. Yang, Zhihao & Hong, Junjie, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and energy intensity: Evidence from Chinese industrial firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    4. Liu, Qing & Ma, Hong, 2020. "Trade policy uncertainty and innovation: Firm level evidence from China’s WTO accession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    5. Song, Kaiyi & Dai, Wei & Bian, Yuanchao, 2023. "Trade policy uncertainty and environmental performance of Chinese enterprises," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 73-85.
    6. Li, Mengzhe & Lin, Qianru & Lan, Fei & Zhan, Zhimin & He, Zhongshi, 2023. "Trade policy uncertainty and financial investment: Evidence from Chinese energy firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    7. Xi, Yanle & Zhang, Liang & Zhou, Yuxin & Wu, Lamei, 2024. "Trade policy uncertainty and firm-level pollution emissions: Evidence from China's accession to the WTO," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    8. Xiaoling Zhao & Mingru Peng & Xing Wang & Rui Xu & Yongze Cui, 2024. "The Effect of Trade Policy Uncertainty on Green Technology Innovation: Evidence from China’s Enterprises," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-23, August.
    9. Benguria, Felipe & Choi, Jaerim & Swenson, Deborah L. & Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy), 2022. "Anxiety or pain? The impact of tariffs and uncertainty on Chinese firms in the trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    10. Li, Xiaogang, 2020. "Innovation, market valuations, policy uncertainty and trade: Theory and evidence," ISU General Staff Papers 202001010800009179, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Liu Qing & Zhang Yanchao & Li Langxing & Li Shuaihang, 2021. "The Interactive Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty and Credit Constraint Heterogeneity on Firms’ Export Margins: Theory and Empirics," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 9(6), pages 575-607, December.
    12. Rodrigue, Joel & Shi, Qing & Tan, Yong, 2024. "Trade policy uncertainty & resource misallocation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    13. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Duration of membership in the world trade organization and investment-oriented remittances inflows," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 258-277.
    14. Bianconi, Marcelo & Esposito, Federico & Sammon, Marco, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    15. Shuai Chen & Faqin Lin & Xi Yao & Peng Zhang, 2020. "WTO accession, trade expansion, and air pollution: Evidence from China’s county‐level panel data," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 1020-1045, September.
    16. Cui, Chuantao & Li, Leona Shao-Zhi, 2023. "Trade policy uncertainty and new firm entry: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    17. Yu, Mingzhe & Fan, Jiachuan & Wang, Haijun & Wang, Jie, 2023. "US trade policy uncertainty on Chinese agricultural imports and exports: An aggregate and product-level analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 70-83.
    18. Jingbo Cui & On Kit Tam & Bei Wang & Yan Zhang, 2020. "The environmental effect of trade liberalization: Evidence from China's manufacturing firms," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(12), pages 3357-3383, December.
    19. Kexuan Zhou & Linhui Yu & Xinlin Jiang & Sanjay Kumar, 2023. "Trade policy uncertainty and pollution emissions of export enterprises—The case of China‐ASEAN free trade area," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1719-1750, November.
    20. Ruxu Zhang & Yahui Qu, 2022. "The Impact of U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty on the Trade Margins of China’s Export to the U.S," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-16, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:4:p:2150-:d:749013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.