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Shipment Frequency of Exporters and Demand Uncertainty

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  • Gabor Békés
  • Lionel Gérard Fontagné
  • Balazs Murakozy
  • Vincent Vicard

Abstract

Firms adjust to differences in market size and demand uncertainty by changing the frequency and size of their export shipments. In our inventory model, transportation costs and optimal shipment frequency are determined on the basis of demand as well as inventory and per shipments costs. Using a cross section of monthly firm-product-destination level French export data we confirm that firms adjust on both margins for market size. In a stochastic setting, firms adjust to increased uncertainty by reducing their sales and, for a given export volume, by reducing their number of shipments and increasing their shipment size.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabor Békés & Lionel Gérard Fontagné & Balazs Murakozy & Vincent Vicard, 2014. "Shipment Frequency of Exporters and Demand Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 4734, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4734
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    3. Volpe Martincus, Christian & Carballo, Jerónimo & Graziano, Alejandro, 2015. "Customs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 119-137.
    4. Carballo, Jerónimo & Schaur, Georg & Graziano, Alejandro & Volpe Martincus, Christian, 2016. "Transit Trade," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7688, Inter-American Development Bank.
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    6. Alexander-Nikolai Sandkamp & Shuyao Yang, 2018. "Where Has the Rum Gone? Firms’ Choice of Transport Mode under the Threat of Maritime Piracy," ifo Working Paper Series 271, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    7. Jerónimo Carballo & Georg Schaur & Alejandro Graziano & Christian Volpe Martincus, 2016. "Transit Trade," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 94658, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Jerónimo Carballo & Alejandro G. Graziano & Georg Schaur & Christian Volpe Martincus, 2024. "The Effects of Transit Systems on International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1083-1098, July.
    9. Héricourt, Jérôme & Nedoncelle, Clément, 2018. "Multi-destination firms and the impact of exchange-rate risk on trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1178-1193.
    10. Héricourt, Jérôme & Nedoncelle, Clément, 2018. "Multi-destination firms and the impact of exchange-rate risk on trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1178-1193.
    11. Crozet, Matthieu & Hinz, Julian & Stammann, Amrei & Wanner, Joschka, 2021. "Worth the pain? Firms’ exporting behaviour to countries under sanctions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    12. Ngo Van Long & Yifan Li & Zhuang Miao, 2020. "Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export Diversity: The Role of Production Constraints," CIRANO Working Papers 2020s-41, CIRANO.
    13. Joachim Wagner, 2017. "Trade costs shocks and lumpiness of imports: Evidence from the Fukushima disaster," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(1), pages 149-155.
    14. Alessandria, George & Khan, Shafaat Yar & Khederlarian, Armen, 2024. "Taking stock of trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China’s pre-WTO accession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    15. Wagner, Joachim, 2016. "The lumpiness of German exports and imports of goods," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 10, pages 1-38.
    16. Alexander Sandkamp & Vincent Stamer & Shuyao Yang, 2022. "Where has the rum gone? The impact of maritime piracy on trade and transport," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(3), pages 751-778, August.
    17. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Laksanapanyakul, Nuttawut & Yoshimi, Taiyo, 2016. "Effect of import time on export patterns," IDE Discussion Papers 566, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    18. Straume, Hans-Martin, 2015. "Trade costs and Norwegian salmon export," Working Papers in Economics 06/15, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
    19. Sravaitri CHAUDHURI, 2020. "Welfare enhancing uncertainty," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(625), W), pages 73-88, Winter.
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    23. Chris Muris & Horst Raff & Nicolas Schmitt & Frank Stähler, 2023. "Inventory, Sourcing, and the Effects of Trade Costs: Theory and Empirical Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 10253, CESifo.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    gravity; transport costs; frequency of trade; inventory model; firms;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General

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