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A comparison of univariate methods for forecasting electricity demand up to a day ahead

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  1. Ohtsuka, Yoshihiro & Oga, Takashi & Kakamu, Kazuhiko, 2010. "Forecasting electricity demand in Japan: A Bayesian spatial autoregressive ARMA approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2721-2735, November.
  2. D J Pedregal & P C Young, 2008. "Development of improved adaptive approaches to electricity demand forecasting," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(8), pages 1066-1076, August.
  3. Barrow, Devon & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2018. "The impact of special days in call arrivals forecasting: A neural network approach to modelling special days," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(3), pages 967-977.
  4. Mukherjee, Paramita & Coondoo, Dipankor & Lahiri, Poulomi, 2019. "Forecasting Hourly Prices in Indian Spot Electricity Market," MPRA Paper 103161, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Reisen, Valdério A. & Zamprogno, Bartolomeu & Palma, Wilfredo & Arteche, Josu, 2014. "A semiparametric approach to estimate two seasonal fractional parameters in the SARFIMA model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-17.
  6. Carlo Fezzi & Valeria Fanghella, 2020. "Real-time estimation of the short-run impact of COVID-19 on economic activity using electricity market data," Papers 2007.03477, arXiv.org.
  7. Tanrisever, Fehmi & Derinkuyu, Kursad & Heeren, Michael, 2013. "Forecasting electricity infeed for distribution system networks: An analysis of the Dutch case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 247-257.
  8. Raviv, Eran & Bouwman, Kees E. & van Dijk, Dick, 2015. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: Utilizing hourly prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 227-239.
  9. Ismail Shah & Hasnain Iftikhar & Sajid Ali & Depeng Wang, 2019. "Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting Using Components Estimation Technique," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-17, July.
  10. Kamal Chapagain & Somsak Kittipiyakul, 2018. "Performance Analysis of Short-Term Electricity Demand with Atmospheric Variables," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-34, April.
  11. Pielow, Amy & Sioshansi, Ramteen & Roberts, Matthew C., 2012. "Modeling short-run electricity demand with long-term growth rates and consumer price elasticity in commercial and industrial sectors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 533-540.
  12. Rubin, Ofir D. & Babcock, Bruce A., 2011. "A novel approach for modeling deregulated electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2711-2721, May.
  13. Taylor, James W., 2006. "Density forecasting for the efficient balancing of the generation and consumption of electricity," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 707-724.
  14. Sharifzadeh, Mahdi & Sikinioti-Lock, Alexandra & Shah, Nilay, 2019. "Machine-learning methods for integrated renewable power generation: A comparative study of artificial neural networks, support vector regression, and Gaussian Process Regression," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 513-538.
  15. Batalla-Bejerano, Joan & Costa-Campi, Maria Teresa & Trujillo-Baute, Elisa, 2016. "Collateral effects of liberalisation: Metering, losses, load profiles and cost settlement in Spain’s electricity system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 421-431.
  16. Alexios Lekidis & Elpiniki I. Papageorgiou, 2023. "Edge-Based Short-Term Energy Demand Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-20, July.
  17. Sulandari, Winita & Subanar, & Lee, Muhammad Hisyam & Rodrigues, Paulo Canas, 2020. "Indonesian electricity load forecasting using singular spectrum analysis, fuzzy systems and neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
  18. -, 2011. "An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector In Barbados," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38602, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
  19. Jaume Rosselló Nadal & Mohcine Bakhat, 2009. "A new approach to estimating tourism-induced electricity consumption," CRE Working Papers (Documents de treball del CRE) 2009/6, Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB ·"Sa Nostra").
  20. Eichler, M. & Grothe, O. & Manner, H. & Türk, D.D.T., 2012. "Modeling spike occurrences in electricity spot prices for forecasting," Research Memorandum 029, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  21. Kohler, M. & Blond, N. & Clappier, A., 2016. "A city scale degree-day method to assess building space heating energy demands in Strasbourg Eurometropolis (France)," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 40-54.
  22. Carlo Fezzi & Valeria Fanghella, 2020. "Real-time estimation of the short-run impact of COVID-19 on economic activity using electricity market data," DEM Working Papers 2020/8, Department of Economics and Management.
  23. Rallapalli, Srinivasa Rao & Ghosh, Sajal, 2012. "Forecasting monthly peak demand of electricity in India—A critique," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 516-520.
  24. Paramita Mukherjee & Dipankor Coondoo & Poulomi Lahiri, 2024. "Forecasting Hourly Spot Prices in Indian Electricity Market," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 12(3), pages 273-295, December.
  25. Chan, Kam Fong & Gray, Philip & van Campen, Bart, 2008. "A new approach to characterizing and forecasting electricity price volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 728-743.
  26. Deb, Chirag & Zhang, Fan & Yang, Junjing & Lee, Siew Eang & Shah, Kwok Wei, 2017. "A review on time series forecasting techniques for building energy consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 902-924.
  27. Taylor, James W. & Snyder, Ralph D., 2012. "Forecasting intraday time series with multiple seasonal cycles using parsimonious seasonal exponential smoothing," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 748-757.
  28. Taylor, James W., 2010. "Exponentially weighted methods for forecasting intraday time series with multiple seasonal cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 627-646, October.
  29. Zhou, Fan & Page, Lionel & Perrons, Robert K. & Zheng, Zuduo & Washington, Simon, 2019. "Long-term forecasts for energy commodities price: What the experts think," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  30. Magnano, L. & Boland, J.W., 2007. "Generation of synthetic sequences of electricity demand: Application in South Australia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 2230-2243.
  31. Liang, Xin & Hong, Tianzhen & Shen, Geoffrey Qiping, 2016. "Improving the accuracy of energy baseline models for commercial buildings with occupancy data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 247-260.
  32. Paraschiv, Florentina & Erni, David & Pietsch, Ralf, 2014. "The impact of renewable energies on EEX day-ahead electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 196-210.
  33. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, number hsbook0601, December.
  34. Trapero, Juan R. & Pedregal, Diego J., 2009. "Frequency domain methods applied to forecasting electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 727-735, September.
  35. Webel, Karsten, 2022. "A review of some recent developments in the modelling and seasonal adjustment of infra-monthly time series," Discussion Papers 31/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  36. Goutam Dutta & Krishnendranath Mitra, 2017. "A literature review on dynamic pricing of electricity," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 68(10), pages 1131-1145, October.
  37. Lobo, Benjamin J. & Brown, Donald E. & Grazaitis, Peter J., 2019. "Long-term forecasting of fuel demand at theater entry points," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 502-520.
  38. Cristina Miranda & Reinaldo Castro Souza & Mônica Barros & Cristina Vidigal Cabral de Miranda, 2007. "Short Term Demand Forecasting Using Double Exponential Smoothing and Interventions to Account for Holidays and Temperature Effects," EcoMod2007 23900058, EcoMod.
  39. Hahn, Heiko & Meyer-Nieberg, Silja & Pickl, Stefan, 2009. "Electric load forecasting methods: Tools for decision making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 199(3), pages 902-907, December.
  40. Miloš Božić & Miloš Stojanović & Zoran Stajić & Dragan Tasić, 2013. "A New Two-Stage Approach to Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-19, April.
  41. Karamaziotis, Panagiotis I. & Raptis, Achilleas & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos & Litsiou, Konstantia & Assimakopoulos, Vassilis, 2020. "An empirical investigation of water consumption forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 588-606.
  42. Dordonnat, V. & Koopman, S.J. & Ooms, M. & Dessertaine, A. & Collet, J., 2008. "An hourly periodic state space model for modelling French national electricity load," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 566-587.
  43. Salah Bouktif & Ali Fiaz & Ali Ouni & Mohamed Adel Serhani, 2018. "Optimal Deep Learning LSTM Model for Electric Load Forecasting using Feature Selection and Genetic Algorithm: Comparison with Machine Learning Approaches †," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-20, June.
  44. Walter, Travis & Price, Phillip N. & Sohn, Michael D., 2014. "Uncertainty estimation improves energy measurement and verification procedures," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 230-236.
  45. Motlagh, Omid & Paevere, Phillip & Hong, Tang Sai & Grozev, George, 2015. "Analysis of household electricity consumption behaviours: Impact of domestic electricity generation," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 270(C), pages 165-178.
  46. Silva, Hendrigo Batista da & Santiago, Leonardo P., 2018. "On the trade-off between real-time pricing and the social acceptability costs of demand response," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1513-1521.
  47. Tine Van Calster & Filip Van den Bossche & Bart Baesens & Wilfried Lemahieu, 2020. "Profit-oriented sales forecasting: a comparison of forecasting techniques from a business perspective," Papers 2002.00949, arXiv.org.
  48. Taylor, James W., 2008. "An evaluation of methods for very short-term load forecasting using minute-by-minute British data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 645-658.
  49. Cancelo, José Ramón & Grafe, Rosmarie, 2007. "Forecasting from one day to one week ahead for the Spanish system operator," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws078418, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  50. Rendon-Sanchez, Juan F. & de Menezes, Lilian M., 2019. "Structural combination of seasonal exponential smoothing forecasts applied to load forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(3), pages 916-924.
  51. Smith, Michael Stanley & Shively, Thomas S., 2018. "Econometric modeling of regional electricity spot prices in the Australian market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 886-903.
  52. Ayman A. Amin, 2020. "Bayesian Analysis of Double Seasonal Autoregressive Models," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 82(2), pages 328-352, November.
  53. Niematallah Elamin & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2017. "The 2011 Japanese energy crisis: Effects on the magnitude and pattern of load demand," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 17-19, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
  54. Salah Bouktif & Ali Fiaz & Ali Ouni & Mohamed Adel Serhani, 2019. "Single and Multi-Sequence Deep Learning Models for Short and Medium Term Electric Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, January.
  55. Elamin, Niematallah & Fukushige, Mototsugu, 2018. "Modeling and forecasting hourly electricity demand by SARIMAX with interactions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 257-268.
  56. Dutta, Goutam & Mitra, Krishnendranath, 2015. "Dynamic Pricing of Electricity: A Survey of Related Research," IIMA Working Papers WP2015-08-03, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
  57. Ifiok Anthony Umoren & Muhammad Zeeshan Shakir, 2022. "Electric Vehicle as a Service (EVaaS): Applications, Challenges and Enablers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-23, September.
  58. Cho, Haeran & Goude, Yannig & Brossat, Xavier & Yao, Qiwei, 2013. "Modeling and forecasting daily electricity load curves: a hybrid approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 49634, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  59. Tziolis, Georgios & Spanias, Chrysovalantis & Theodoride, Maria & Theocharides, Spyros & Lopez-Lorente, Javier & Livera, Andreas & Makrides, George & Georghiou, George E., 2023. "Short-term electric net load forecasting for solar-integrated distribution systems based on Bayesian neural networks and statistical post-processing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
  60. Olga Y. Uritskaya & Vadim M. Uritsky, 2015. "Predictability of price movements in deregulated electricity markets," Papers 1505.08117, arXiv.org.
  61. Shakouri, Mahmoud & Lee, Hyun Woo & Kim, Yong-Woo, 2017. "A probabilistic portfolio-based model for financial valuation of community solar," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 709-726.
  62. Safiullah, Hameed, 2011. "Evaluation of Grid Level Impacts of Electric Vehicles," MPRA Paper 58517, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  63. Motlagh, Omid & Berry, Adam & O'Neil, Lachlan, 2019. "Clustering of residential electricity customers using load time series," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 11-24.
  64. Ismail Shah & Francesco Lisi, 2020. "Forecasting of electricity price through a functional prediction of sale and purchase curves," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 242-259, March.
  65. Cancelo, José Ramón & Espasa, Antoni & Grafe, Rosmarie, 2008. "Forecasting the electricity load from one day to one week ahead for the Spanish system operator," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 588-602.
  66. Bassamzadeh, Nastaran & Ghanem, Roger, 2017. "Multiscale stochastic prediction of electricity demand in smart grids using Bayesian networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 369-380.
  67. Carlo Fezzi & Valeria Fanghella, 2020. "Real-Time Estimation of the Short-Run Impact of COVID-19 on Economic Activity Using Electricity Market Data," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 885-900, August.
  68. Zhongwen Li & Chuanzhi Zang & Peng Zeng & Haibin Yu, 2016. "Combined Two-Stage Stochastic Programming and Receding Horizon Control Strategy for Microgrid Energy Management Considering Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-16, June.
  69. Chatum Sankalpa & Somsak Kittipiyakul & Seksan Laitrakun, 2022. "Forecasting Short-Term Electricity Load Using Validated Ensemble Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-30, November.
  70. Chethana Dharmawardane & Ville Sillanpää & Jan Holmström, 2021. "High-frequency forecasting for grocery point-of-sales: intervention in practice and theoretical implications for operational design," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 38-60, June.
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  72. Sergey Voronin & Jarmo Partanen, 2013. "Price Forecasting in the Day-Ahead Energy Market by an Iterative Method with Separate Normal Price and Price Spike Frameworks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(11), pages 1-24, November.
  73. Uritskaya, Olga Y. & Uritsky, Vadim M., 2015. "Predictability of price movements in deregulated electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 72-81.
  74. Bakhat, Mohcine & Rosselló, Jaume, 2011. "Estimation of tourism-induced electricity consumption: The case study of Balearics Islands, Spain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 437-444, May.
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